June 22, 2026/Cordros Report

In this note, we update our estimates and outlook for NASCON Allied Industries Plc (NASCON) for 2026E. In Q1-26, the company reported EPS growth of 30.5% y/y to NGN14.63 despite a 6.0% y/y decline in revenue. The EPS growth was driven by a significant improvement in cost efficiency, as cost-to-sales margin declined by 922bps y/y to 48.0% (Q1-25: 57.2%) on -24.0% y/y decline in raw materials input costs. Following our review, we update our 2026E estimates, anchored on: (1) improving operating leverage, (2) normalization of CAPEX intensity to 1.0% (2025FY: 15.5%) following the completion of the group’s logistics-led investment cycle in 2025FY, (3) structurally stronger free cash flow generation, and (4) a sustainable shareholder return profile over 2026-2030E. That said, we model a target price of NGN204.16/share, implying a 7.0% downside to the current market price of NGN219.50/share, and therefore maintain our “HOLD” recommendation on the stock. On our estimates, NASCON currently trades at a 2026E P/E and EV/EBITDA of 12.9x and 8.5x compared to MEA peer average of 17.9x and 9.2x, respectively. 

Volume recovery and efficiency gains to drive earnings growth: We project 2026E revenue growth of 15.3% y/y (2026–2030E CAGR: 9.7%), supported by 8.7% volume growth and an estimated 10.0% average price increase across the salt and seasoning segments. On the cost side, continued localisation efforts, a more stable FX environment, and easing imported input cost pressures should drive a 418bps improvement in the COGS ratio to 47.4% (2025A: 51.6%), supporting margin expansion.  Consequently, gross margin is forecast to expand by 418bps y/y to 52.6%. Below the gross profit line, OPEX-to-sales ratio of 19.3% (2025FY: 19.4%) is expected to lag revenue growth, supporting a 636bps expansion in EBITDA margin to 36.2% and reflecting improving operating leverage. With net finance costs expected to remain modest at NGN5.39 billion in 2026E (2025FY: NGN5.35 billion), we expect the improvement in operating profitability to translate efficiently into stronger earnings visibility and bottom-line growth. Accordingly, we project 2026E EPS at NGN17.01, representing growth of 37.1% y/y.

Strong Cash Generation Supports Deleveraging: The group’s borrowings have declined sharply following a sustained deleveraging cycle, falling from NGN5.53 billion in 2023FY to NGN2.86 billion in 2024FY and further to NGN66.53 million in 2025FY, driven by strong internal cash generation. This trend has persisted into 2026, with borrowings moderating slightly to NGN65.04 million in Q1-26. Given our expectation of robust operating cash flows (CAGR: +5.1%) and normalized capital expenditure (CAGR: -42.6%) over 2026-2030E, we expect borrowings to remain largely negligible through 2030E, reinforcing the group’s strong balance sheet and financial flexibility.

Valuation: Our target price is NGN204.16/s derived from an equal blend of a DCF and sector relative valuation approach (P/E & EV/EBITDA). Our DCF FV is derived from an equal blend of FCFF (NGN150.51/s) and FCFE (NGN124.03/s), assuming a 22.3% WACC, 23.2% cost of equity, and a 4.0% terminal growth rate. Similarly, our multiple-based FV was derived from a blend of EV/EBITDA (NGN237.56/s) and P/E (NGN304.55/s) multiples, utilising Bloomberg’s Middle East and African peer median for both factors (9.2x and 17.9x) as multipliers.

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June 19, 2026/CSL Report

Lafarge Africa delivered an impressive performance in Q1 2026, with Revenue increasing by 34.8% year-on-year (y/y) to ₦334.9 billion. The strong topline growth was broad-based across all product categories, supported by both higher pricing and increased sales volumes. Cement revenue, which remains the company’s primary earnings driver, rose by 35.0% y/y to ₦327.6 billion.

Revenue from aggregates and concrete expanded by 28.6% y/y to ₦6.9 billion, while other product categories recorded a 6.8% y/y increase to ₦300.0 million. The robust Revenue growth, coupled with a relatively moderate increase in operating costs and a significantly improved finance position, drove Profit Before Tax (PBT) higher by 104.0% y/y to ₦149.1 billion.

Looking ahead, we expect Lafarge Africa’s growth momentum to remain strong, underpinned by favourable pricing dynamics and continued volume expansion. We forecast average cement prices to increase by 30.0% y/y to ₦203,852 per tonne in FY 2026, while cement sales volumes are projected to rise by 10.8% y/y to 7.5 million metric tonnes.

Consequently, we estimate Revenue will grow by 45.7% y/y to ₦1.6 trillion in FY 2026, compared with ₦1.1 trillion recorded in FY 2025. We also anticipate sustained earnings growth, supported by strong Revenue expansion, a moderation in cost pressures, and improved Net Finance Income. As a result, we forecast Profit Before Tax (PBT) to increase by 43.9% y/y to ₦681.9 billion in FY 2026.

We have revised our target price upward to ₦404.32 per share from our previous target price of ₦214.40 per share, while maintaining our BUY recommendation on Lafarge Africa. This implies a potential upside of 22.5% relative to the last closing price of ₦330.00 per share. Our valuation is based on a blended methodology comprising Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Relative Valuation, weighted 60% and 40%, respectively.

To read full report, click on the link below​​

​Lafarge Africa Q1 2026 Company Update.pdf

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June 19, 2026/Cordros Report

We update our 2026E estimates for BUA Cement Plc (BUACEMENT) following the release of its Q1-26 results. The company reported revenue growth of 22.1% y/y, driven by higher cement prices and growth in bulk cement volume, EBITDA margin expansion of 871bps y/y to 53.9% and EPS of NGN5.21 (+117.4% y/y). Following our review, we revise our 2026E revenue growth estimate to +25.4% y/y (Prev.: +18.7% y/y) and EPS estimate to NGN16.82 (Prev.: NGN12.87).

These revisions reflect upward adjustments to our volume and price assumptions and a more favourable cost outlook. Accordingly, we raise our target price to NGN273.08/s (Prev.: NGN142.70/s) following the increase in our earnings forecasts.

However, we maintain our “SELL” rating, as the stock continues to trade at a substantial premium to both our intrinsic value estimate and peer valuations, leaving the risk reward skewed to the downside despite the company’s improving operating performance. We also forecast a 2026E DPS of NGN15.00, translating to a dividend yield of 4.0%. On our 2026E estimates, BUACEMENT is trading at a 2026E P/E of 22.5x and EV/EBITDA of 16.7x relative to MEA peer averages of 15.0x and 11.5x, respectively.

Improved pricing and volume outlook drive earnings upgrade: We revise our 2026E revenue growth forecast to 25.4% y/y (Prev.: +18.7% y/y) reflecting a slight uptick in projected sales volumes to 8.40Mt (Prev.:8.34Mt) and a higher realized price assumption of c.NGN175,000.00/t (Prev.: c.NGN168,000.00/t). Meanwhile, COGS growth is now projected at 12.5% y/y (Prev.: +16.9% y/y) and OPEX at 25.2% y/y (Prev.: +34.3% y/y). The revision to our COGS estimate is driven primarily by a lower energy cost growth assumption of +27.5% y/y (Prev: +37.7% y/y), as we expect more material benefits from the introduction of solid fuel at the Obu plant, and relative FX stability on related input costs. For OPEX, the downward revision reflects lower expected growth in distribution expenses (+35.3% y/y | Prev.: +53.0% y/y), as growth in fuel costs proves less severe than previously anticipated. Consequently, we expect EBITDA margin to expand by 417bps y/y to 52.0% (Prev.: -93bps to 46.8%). Furthermore, we project net finance income of NGN24.94 billion and EPS growth of 60.0% y/y to NGN16.82 (Prev.: +22.5% y/y to NGN12.87).

Return on capital continues to strengthen: BUACEMENT’s returns profile is expected to strengthen further in the near term. ROIC (return on invested capital) increased from 19.7% in 2024 to 42.4% in 2025 (2021–2025 average: 23.7%) and we forecast a further increase to 58.1% in 2026E, above the local peer average of 52.3%. The projected ROIC also remains well ahead of the company’s 18.6% WACC, indicating that earnings growth continues to outpace growth in the capital employed to generate those returns. The improvement is expected to be driven by stronger revenue growth and margin expansion, while the company’s deleveraging trajectory should moderate growth in invested capital. Beyond 2026E, we expect ROIC to remain elevated, averaging 92.2% over our 2026E–2030E forecast horizon.

Valuation: Our target price is NGN273.08/s, derived from a 60/40 blend of DCF and sector relative valuation estimates. Our DCF FV is derived from an equal blend of FCFF (NGN310.50/s) and FCFE (NGN257.69/s) estimates, assuming an 18.6% WACC, 23.3% CoE and 4.0% terminal growth rate. Similarly, our multiple based FV was derived from a blend of EV/EBITDA (NGN260.87/s) and P/E (NGN252.26/s) estimates, utilising MEA peer averages for both factors (11.5x and 15.0x, respectively) as multipliers.

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