June 3, 2026/Cordros Report

In this note, we update our 2026E estimates and outlook for Lafarge Africa Plc (WAPCO) following the release of its Q1-26 results.  We now forecast 2026E revenue growth of 33.2% y/y (Prev.: +26.1% y/y), alongside EBITDA margin expansion of 396bps y/y to 44.0% (Prev.: +10bps y/y to 40.1%) and EPS growth of 60.6% y/y to NGN27.23/s (Prev.: +31.5% y/y to NGN22.30/s). The upward revision to our estimates primarily reflects a stronger demand outlook, with sales volumes now projected at 7.25 million tonnes (Prev.: 6.98 million tonnes), supported by increased fiscal spending, uptick in infrastructure & construction activities, and sustained demand for premium cement products. Profitability is also expected to benefit from ongoing cost efficiency initiatives, including increased use of alternative fuels and CNG trucks. Accordingly, we raise our target price to NGN368.25/s (Prev.: NGN240.54/s), implying an upside potential of 7.7% relative to the current market price of NGN342.00/s, and reiterate our “HOLD” rating on the stock. That said, we believe additional upside could emerge from further improvements in working capital efficiency, lower capex intensity (<25.0%), and stronger free cash flow conversion. Based on our revised 2026E estimates, WAPCO is currently trading at 12.6x P/E and 8.2x EV/EBITDA, vs. MEA peer averages of 15.0x and 11.5x, respectively.

Higher volume assumptions lifts earnings forecast: We revise our 2026E revenue growth forecast upwards to 33.2% y/y (Prev.: +26.1% y/y), reflecting higher projected sales volumes (+15.0% y/y to 7.25 Mt | Prev.: +10.8% y/y to 6.98 Mt) alongside an uptick to our price assumption (+15.8% y/y to NGN196,000.00/tonne | Prev.: +13.8% y/y to NGN192,500.00/tonne). At the same time, we now forecast a 23.3% y/y increase in COGS (Prev.: +24.6% y/y). The downward revision to our cost growth assumptions reflects lower projected production fixed costs (+21.7% y/y vs. +44.4% y/y prior) and maintenance expenses (+22.1% y/y vs. +40.2% y/y prior), which offset upward revisions to our energy cost (+14.5% y/y vs. +7.0% y/y prior) and raw material cost (+42.4% y/y vs. +37.7% y/y prior) assumptions. Consequently, we now expect EBITDA margin to expand by 396bps y/y to 44.0% (Prev.: +10bps y/y to 40.1%). Finally, we now forecast EPS growth of 60.6% y/y to NGN27.23/s (Prev.: +31.5% y/y to NGN22.30/s).

Free cash flow now expected to remain positive: We now expect WAPCO to maintain positive free cash flow generation in 2026E despite elevated expansion related capex. Our revised expectations reflect stronger OCF projections, supported by improved profitability and better working capital management. Specifically, we now forecast OCF of NGN474.35 billion (Prev.: NGN384.63 billion), while we revise our capex expectations lower to NGN390.52 billion (Prev.: NGN403.30 billion), reflecting a more moderate pace of expansion spending. Consequently, we now forecast free cash flow of NGN83.83 billion (FCF margin: 5.9%) in 2026E, compared to our prior expectation of negative NGN18.67 billion (FCF margin: -1.4%).

Valuation: Our target price is NGN368.25/s, derived from a 50/50 blend of DCF and sector relative valuation estimates. Our DCF FV is derived from an equal blend of FCFF (NGN302.20/s) and FCFE (NGN292.96/s) estimates, assuming a 22.0% WACC, and a 4.0% terminal growth rate. Similarly, our multiple based FV was derived from a blend of EV/EBITDA (NGN469.33/s) and P/E (NGN408.50/s) estimates, utilising MEA peer averages for both factors (11.5x and 15.0x, respectively) as multipliers.

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June 1, 2026/CSL Report

Airtel Africa delivered a strong performance in FY 2026, underpinned by robust growth across its key revenue segments. Mobile Money Revenue rose by 41.2% year-on-year (y/y) to US$1.1 billion, while Data Revenue expanded by 40.3% y/y to US$2.5 billion. Voice Revenue also recorded solid growth, increasing by 18.0% y/y to US$2.3 billion. This strong topline performance, combined with moderated cost pressures and a 13.3% decline in Net Finance Costs, drove Profit Before Tax (PBT) significantly higher by 114.7% y/y to US$1.4 billion, compared to US$661.0 million in FY 2025.

We forecast continued strong momentum through FY 2027, with:

• Data Revenue expected to grow by 31.2% y/y

• Voice Revenue projected to rise by 10.0% y/y

• Mobile Money Revenue forecast to increase by 32.2% y/y

These drivers are expected to lift total Revenue by 22.5% y/y to US$7.9 billion, compared to US$6.4 billion in FY 2026. In addition, improved operating efficiency, sustained cost optimisation initiatives, and a more stable FX environment are expected to support profitability, with Pre-Tax Profit projected to increase to US$2.4 billion in FY 2027, up from US$1.4 billion in FY 2026.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on Airtel Africa and have increased our target price to ₦5,053.72 per share, up from our previous estimate of ₦4,096.20 per share. The upward revision reflects the company’s robust fundamentals, strong earnings trajectory, and sustained growth prospects. Based on the closing price of ₦3,655.70 as of 29 May 2026, our revised target price implies a potential upside of 38.2%. We derive our valuation using a blended approach, assigning a 60% weight to the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology and 40% to Relative Valuation.

To read full report, click on the link below​​

​Airtel Africa FY 2026 Company Update .pdf

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Presco Plc reported a modest year on year (y/y) Revenue growth of 7.5% in Q1 2026, with Revenue rising to ₦100.9 billion from ₦93.8 billion recorded in Q1 2025. On a quarter on quarter (q/q) basis, Revenue expanded significantly by 77.9% from ₦56.7 billion in Q4 2025. The growth in first quarter Revenue was primarily supported by sustained domestic demand for crude palm oil (CPO) across both industrial and household segments.

Cost of Sales declined notably by 13.1% y/y to ₦6.9 billion in Q1 2026, compared with ₦8.0 billion recorded in Q1 2025. The decline was primarily driven by a substantial 92.7% reduction in the cost of raw materials consumed, reflecting improved resource optimization across the company’s oil palm operations. Consequently, Gross Profit increased by 9.5% y/y to ₦93.95 billion from ₦85.83 billion, while gross margin improved slightly to 93.1% from 91.5% in the corresponding period of 2025.

In 2025, Presco completed the acquisition of the remaining 48% equity interest in Ghana Oil Palm Development Company (GOPDC) Limited, resulting in full ownership and the consolidation of the business as a wholly owned subsidiary. In the same year, the Company also acquired 100% of the issued share capital of Saro Oil Palm Limited (SOP), a Nigerian incorporated oil palm plantation company with significant plantation assets and related operations within Nigeria. These acquisitions substantially expanded the Group’s production capacity and increased its plantation footprint to six estates, in line with Presco’s strategic objective of strengthening its integrated palm oil operations across West Africa.

We have revised our FY estimates following the release of Q1 numbers and our projected PBT is estimated at ₦281.2 billion. We maintain a Hold recommendation on the stock with a price target of ₦2,357/share, compared with the current market price of ₦2,300/share. The stock continues to trade at a premium to its MEA peers, with current EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.48x versus the selected peer average of 11.77x. Our price target is derived using a 60:40 blend of discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation and relative valuation methodologies.

To read full report, click on the link below​​

​Presco Plc Q1 2026 Company Update.pdf​

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