April 16, 2026/Cordros Report

The National Bureau of Statistics released its inflation report for the month of March. According to the NBS, headline inflation rose by 32bps to 15.38% y/y in March (February: 15.06% y/y), marking the first increase since March 2025. A disaggregation of the data shows that inflation increased across both the food (+219bps to 14.31% y/y vs February: 12.12% y/y) and core (+33bps to 16.21% y/y vs February: 15.88% y/y) components, primarily reflecting the pass-through effects of elevated energy prices on overall price levels. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices increased markedly by 4.18% in March (February: 2.01% m/m), extending last month’s positive reading.

On a month-on-month basis, food prices increased by 4.12% in March (February: +4.70% m/m), resulting in a rise in the year-on-year rate to 14.31% y/y (February: 12.12% y/y). We attribute the sustained upward pressure on food prices to constrained supply conditions during the ongoing planting season, alongside elevated logistics costs driven by the spike in energy prices. Within the food basket, farm produce prices accelerated to 4.60% m/m (February: +3.74% m/m), while imported food prices also recorded a notable increase of 1.12% m/m (February: +0.65% m/m).

At the same time, core inflation rose markedly by 4.03% m/m (February: +0.89% m/m), pushing the year-on-year rate to 16.21%. We attribute the increase to the impact of the spike in fuel prices on transportation and business costs. Across the subcomponents, inflationary pressures heightened significantly in restaurants and accommodation services (+6.92% m/m vs February: +1.12% m/m), personal care (+5.21% m/m vs February: +0.34% m/m), utilities (+4.07% m/m vs February: –0.45% m/m), transport (+3.98% m/m vs February: -0.26% m/m) and health (+2.86% m/m vs February: -0.22% m/m).

Short-term Relief in Sight, but Inflation Not Yet Tamed

Following a spike in March, price pressures have now begun to ease gradually due to a slower pace of increase in energy prices. Precisely, the recent fragile ceasefire in the Middle East has contributed to a moderation in global oil prices from their recent peaks. The Brent crude price has fallen by 19.8% to USD94.90/barrel as of April 15th (March 30: USD118.35/barrel). Domestically, this decline has translated into a noticeable slowdown in domestic energy price increases, with pump prices for petrol and diesel stabilising after earlier sharp rises linked to global benchmarks in March. Although transportation and business costs have remained high, the pass-through of earlier energy shocks to consumer prices is beginning to soften, reducing the pace of increase in food and core inflation.

Most importantly, the naira has remained relatively stable, averaging NGN1,366.91/USD so far in April (March: NGN1,379.13/USD). This stability has helped contain imported inflation despite lingering global shipping cost pressures linked to Middle East tensions, thereby keeping inflation expectations partially anchored.

That said, while a near term moderation in price pressures is expected, overall price levels remain elevated, and risks are still skewed to the upside. We note that the ceasefire in the Middle East remains fluid, raising the possibility of renewed geopolitical tensions that could rebound global oil prices and re-intensify pressure on domestic energy, transport, and operating costs. In addition, food supply conditions are likely to stay tight despite the onset of the off-season (irrigated) harvest in the northern region in April, as heightened insecurity continues to disrupt agricultural production and distribution.

Overall, we forecast inflation to ease to 2.0% m/m from 4.18% m/m in April. However, inflation is estimated to rise further to 15.54% y/y (March: 15.38% y/y).

VIEW REPORT

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April 16, 2026/InvestmentOne Report

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that headline inflation climbed to 15.38% in March 2026, 32bps higher than was printed in the previous month. This is unsurprising, given the impact of the ongoing conflict in the middle east on global crude oil prices and petroleum products in Nigeria. For context, the price of PMS rose from NGN830.00/liter since attacks began on February 28, currently hovering around NGN1,320.00/liter across most regions of the country. This price shock was also evident on a month-on-month basis, as headline inflation rose by 4.18% in March, compared to 2.01% in February.

Going forward, we expect inflationary pressures to remain prevalent in the near term, mainly due to the spillover effects of the Iran war, which has caused major disruptions in global energy supply amid the closure of the strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global energy supply.

Against this backdrop, the cost of petroleum products is likely to stay elevated, keeping general price levels high in the domestic economy. However, we highlight that this outlook is contingent on events surrounding the war, especially with the negotiations going on amongst parties involved. Overall, we envisage a considerable rise in headline inflation in April driven specifically by elevated energy prices.

Kindly find HERE, the full report, covering our analysis and considerations.

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(Credit:Tamer Dagas/iStock by Getty Images)

April 15, 2026/IMFBlog

By Krzysztof Bankowski, Natasha X Che, Era Dabla-Norris, Rodrigo Valdés

Middle East conflict intensifies global uncertainty at a time of strained public finances, underscoring the need for policies that preserve future stability

The war in the Middle East is putting pressure on people, firms, and countries at a moment when public finances are already strained by long-term issues. Higher energy and food prices, tighter financial conditions, and greater uncertainty are once again prompting calls for fiscal support.

In shaping their responses to this shock, countries will need to carefully consider the balance between protecting the most vulnerable and preserving market price signals. The latest Fiscal Monitor argues that, with debt already elevated in many countries, fiscal policy must respond cautiously—providing support where needed without pushing public finances closer to the brink.

Weak starting position

Before the war, public finances were already stretched. The pandemic, the 2022 energy and food price shock, and rising trade disruptions left governments with higher debt, weaker buffers, and delayed adjustment.

Even when economies recovered, fiscal positions did not. Global growth was robust in 2025, yet there was no meaningful progress in repairing budgets. In many countries, deficits stayed high, debt kept rising, and interest bills grew rapidly.

The numbers are stark. The global fiscal deficit remained at 5 percent of gross domestic product in 2025. Gross public debt rose to 94 percent of GDP and is projected to reach 100 percent by 2029—one year earlier than expected just a year ago. Public finances in many countries are weaker than before the pandemic. Interest spending has climbed rapidly, from 2 to nearly 3 percent of GDP in only four years. At the same time, the gap between countries’ medium-term fiscal plans and what would be needed to stabilize debt globally has widened.

Structural challenges

The nature of today’s fiscal challenges has shifted. Weaknesses are no longer mainly cyclical or the result of temporary emergencies, but are structural: security spending, climate and energy transition costs, and rising interest bills are placing persistent demands on budgets, while revenues have not kept pace.

In this environment, every choice on revenue and spending has more lasting consequences. Waiting for growth alone to do the work is a very risky proposition. When pressures are structural, delaying consolidation does not buy time. It instead narrows options and raises risks.

Risks abound

Our reference forecast assumes that the war’s disruptions would ease by mid-2026. But that assumption is uncertain.

To assess the implications, the Fiscal Monitor considers a severe scenario from the World Economic Outlook in which oil prices stay 100 percent higher than projected in 2027, inflation pressures reemerge, and financing conditions tighten. Under these conditions, global debt-at-risk—defined as the 95th percentile of the projected debt distribution three years ahead, capturing a plausible extreme outcome—would exceed 120 percent of GDP, up from 117 percent in the WEO reference scenario, with the increase concentrated in emerging market and developing economies.

Beyond this conflict, other risks loom large. Fragmentation in trade and finance can lower growth and raise financing costs. Political instability can weaken reform and revenue collection. And abrupt repricing in markets, including in now dominant AI stocks, could tighten financial conditions quickly. At the same time, as central banks are unwinding their balance sheets, governments must rely more heavily on private investors to absorb growing debt issuance, making borrowing costs more sensitive to shifts in market sentiment.

Disciplined policy response

Fiscal discipline means choosing policies that protect stability today without undermining it tomorrow.

If governments decide to help companies and families facing higher energy or food costs, this support should be targeted and temporary, focusing on those most exposed and least able to absorb price increases. Many countries built effective social safety nets during the pandemic; these mechanisms can—and should—be used again.

Countries with narrow fiscal space should avoid financing support measures with additional borrowing. A better approach is to reallocate spending within the same limits and prioritize crisis-related spending (which could be more politically feasible). The alternative is to lock in higher debt and higher interest costs, which will eventually force tougher choices—or worse, destabilize government debt markets and worsen conditions today.

Fiscal and monetary policies should be tightly coordinated. Emergency spending shouldn’t create new aggregate demand, so that support measures don’t undermine central banks’ efforts to contain inflation.

Also, broad measures such as fuel subsidies, while politically appealing, are costly, poorly targeted, difficult to reverse, and encourage higher consumption when supply is constrained—pushing global prices even higher.

Short-term shocks must not distract from the larger task at hand. Restoring fiscal resilience requires credible medium-term consolidation. This means concrete measures and realistic sequencing, not distant or shifting targets. Spending pressures need to be confronted directly, inefficiencies reduced, and competing demands reconciled. On the revenue side, broadening tax bases, streamlining exemptions, and strengthening tax administration can raise revenues even in constrained settings.

The challenges are serious, but the tools are available. Well-designed fiscal frameworks, greater transparency, and clear communication of trade-offs can help governments build the public support needed for durable reform. Acting early and decisively will be critical to preserving stability in a world of recurring shocks and elevated debt.

—This blog is based on the April 2026 Fiscal Monitor, “Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks.” 

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