By Peter OBIORA InvestAdvocate
Lagos (INVESTADVOCATE)-The Group of Twenty (G-20) has projected Global Real Gross Domestic Products (GDP) of 3.5 percent (3.5%) in year 2013.
This is coming on the heels of the meetings of the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in February 2013 in Moscow and a Report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as to this regard.
The G-20 said Financial Market conditions have improved considerably as policy action bolstered confidence and helped mitigate near-term risks.
Also, the G-20 affirmed that improved financial conditions, however, are only slowly translating to the broader economy and prospects are for a gradual reacceleration of activity.
Following this development, the G-20 said growth is projected to increase only gradually over the near term. On an annual average basis, global real GDP growth is projected to reach 3½% in 2013 (up from 3¼% in 2012) and increase further to 4% in 2014.
According to the G-20, in advanced economies, the acceleration is expected to be more evident in the second half of 2013 as easier financial conditions and less uncertainty about policies and prospects foster a rebound in investment.
Also, its been projected that in emerging economies, improvements in activity are expected to become more broad based: “growth has already returned to a healthy pace in China, solid consumption and policy improvements are expected to lift activity in India, and still-strong consumption and a recovery in investment, including infrastructure, should support faster growth in Brazil†the G-20 Report said.
“Accordingly, activity in these economies is projected to accelerate from around 5% in the first half of 2012 to 5½% and then 6% in 2013–14. Recent improvements to structural policies will also help bolster growth over the medium term†the G-20 said.
In the same vein, the G-20 has said Global inflation is forecast to moderate over the near term from 3¾% in 2012 to about 3½% in 2014.
Also, inflation is projected to ease in the major advanced economies, consistent with still-large output gaps. The G-20 meeting Report by the IMF further affirmed that in many emerging economies, inflationary pressures are expected to retreat modestly over the near term, given the recent activity slowdown and lower food and energy prices.
“However, output is generally running above pre-crisis trends. Thus, inflationary pressures are projected to remain fairly high in some economies (e.g., Argentina, India), and could surprise on the upside†the Report said.