In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation rose by 8.0 percent year-on-year. Growth rates have held relatively unchanged for the second consecutive month and continue to find support in the single digit range in line with trends exhibited in 2013.

Food prices have risen at about the same rate year-on-year over the past three months at 9.3 percent. Prices of yams, potatoes and other tubers increased at relatively the same rate over December and January, while prices rose at a faster rate in meat, fish, dairy and fruit classes. Price increases in the food sub-index were weighed down by moderate increases in the vegetables, and oils and fats classes.

After edging higher (year-on-year) in the second half of 2013, the rate of inflation of the Core sub-index eased in January 2014. There were moderations in various classes which contributed to the index, including actual and imputed rental prices, garments, solid and liquid fuels, some household furnishings, reflecting an easing of demand following the end of year prices.

It should be noted that the Headline Index is made up of the Core Index and Farm Produce items. As Processed Foods are included in both the Core and Food sub-indices, this implies that these sub-indices are not mutually-exclusive.

The rate of increase in prices on a monthly basis as indicated by the Headline index eased in January. Prices rose by 0.64%, marginally lower than the 0.78% recorded in December 2013.

The Urban composite CPI was recorded at 152.2 points in January representing an 8.2 percent increase from levels recorded in January 2013. The Urban composite index was however higher by 0.1 percentage points from the 8.1 percent year-on-year change recorded in December.

The corresponding Rural National CPI recorded a 7.8 per cent year-on-year change in January 2014, easing marginally from rates recorded in December 2013 (7.9 percent).

After growing at the same pace over the previous four months (month-on-month) at 0.8 percent, the Urban All items index eased in January, increasing by 0.6 per cent. The Rural All Items index was recorded at 0.68 percent (month-on-month), marginally down from 0.76 percent recorded in December.

The percentage change in the average Composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending in January 2014 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was recorded at 8.4 percent, marginally lower from the 8.5 percent average twelve month rate of change recorded in December 2013.

The corresponding 12-month year-on-year average percentage change for the Urban index was 8.7percent, while the corresponding Rural index was recorded at 8.3 percent. Both were marginally lower from the previous twelve month rates of change by 0.1 percentage points.

FOOD INDEX

As indicated above, food prices have risen at the same rate over the past three months at 9.3 percent (year-on-year), with the largest increases observed in the Bread and Cereals, Meats, and Sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery classes.

On a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index increased by 0.8 percent in January 2014, slightly lower than the 0.9 percent increase recorded in December 2013.

In January, on a month-on-month basis, the highest price increases were recorded in the Fish; Coffee, tea and cocoa; and vegetable classes.

The average annual rate of rise of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending in January 2014 was 9.6 percent, marginally lower from the 9.7 percent recorded for the 12 month period ending in December 2013.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics