Bond Yields decline on Renewed Demand from Domestic Market Players

Culled—Proshare

November 17, 2017/@ZedcrestCapital

The Bond Market

The bond market ended the week on a bullish note, with renewed demand from local market players taking yields lower by 5bps across the curve. Average bond yields consequently declined to 14.83% from 14.89% in the previous session. We expect yields to trend lower opening next week, as market players anticipate release of Q3 GDP figures and outcome of the MPC meeting.  

Table 1: Benchmark FGN Bond Yields
DescriptionBid (%)Offer (%)Day Change (%)
16.00 29-Jun-1914.8414.77(0.08)
15.54 13-Feb-2014.7714.70(0.11)
14.50 15-Jul-2115.0514.98(0.03)
16.39 27-Jan-2214.7114.640.00
14.20 14-Mar-2414.8014.73(0.08)
12.50 22-Jan-2615.0214.95(0.03)
16.29 17-Mar-2714.9914.92(0.04)
12.15 18-Jul-3414.7414.67(0.05)
12.40 18-Mar-3614.7314.66(0.06)
16.25 18-Apr-3714.6814.61(0.06)

Source: Zedcrest Dealing Desk

Treasury Bills
The T-bills market was slightly bearish, with slight sell on some short and medium tenured bills, as some banks tried to generate liquidity to fund for their retail FX bids. Average T-bill yields consequently rose slightly by 9bps to 17.98%. We expect yields to trend slightly higher opening next week, with market liquidity expected to get  tighter on further OMO and FX sales by the CBN. 

Table 2: Benchmark Treasury Bills Rates
DescriptionBid (%)Offer (%)Day Change (%)
7-Dec-1715.2515.000.25
4-Jan-1816.5016.250.60
1-Feb-1817.6017.350.20
1-Mar-1817.0016.750.40
5-Apr-1817.1516.900.00
3-May-1817.4517.200.00
14-Jun-1817.7517.50(0.05)
5-Jul-1817.2517.000.05
2-Aug-1816.7516.500.45
13-Sep-1815.0014.750.00
4-Oct-1815.5015.250.00

Source: Zedcrest Dealing Desk  

The CBN sold a total of N121million (97-day) and N65.90billion (216-day) bills at its OMO auction today, with rates maintained at 16% and 17.80% respectively.
 

Table 3: OMO  – 17 November 2017
TenorRate (%)Offer (NBn)Sub (N’bn)Sale (N’bn)
 97 day16.0030.000.1210.121
216 day17.8070.0065.9065.90

Source: CBN 

The
Money Market

The OBB and OVN rates spiked to 26.67% and 27.67% from 7% levels in the previous session. This was on the backdrop of the OMO T-bill and retail SMIS by the CBN. Market liquidity is consequently estimated to close at N101bn negative, from a positive opening figure of N165billion. We expect rates to trend higher on Monday, due to expected OMO and wholesale SMIS by the CBN.

Table 4: Money Market Rates
Current (%)Previous (%)
Open Buy Back (OBB)26.676.17
Overnight (O/N)27.676.67

Source: FMDQ, Zedcrest Research

The FX Market
The CBN Official spot rate remained stable at its previous day rate of N305.95/$. Its external reserves is also recorded to have improved by 2.04% to $34.33billion as at 15th of November 2017. Rates at the Investors and exporters FX window depreciated to N360.40/$ from N359.56/$ in the previous session. The parallel market however remained stable at its previous day rate of N362.50/$. 

Table 5: FX Rates
Current (N/$)Previous ( N/$)
CBN Spot305.95306.00
CBN SMIS330.00330.00
I&E FX Window359.56360.42
Parallel Market362.50362.50

Source: CBN, FMDQ, REXEL BDC 

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*