Culled—Proshare
November 17, 2017/@ZedcrestCapital
The Bond Market
The bond market ended the week on a bullish note, with renewed demand from local market players taking yields lower by 5bps across the curve. Average bond yields consequently declined to 14.83% from 14.89% in the previous session. We expect yields to trend lower opening next week, as market players anticipate release of Q3 GDP figures and outcome of the MPC meeting.
| Table 1: Benchmark FGN Bond Yields | |||
| Description | Bid (%) | Offer (%) | Day Change (%) |
| 16.00 29-Jun-19 | 14.84 | 14.77 | (0.08) |
| 15.54 13-Feb-20 | 14.77 | 14.70 | (0.11) |
| 14.50 15-Jul-21 | 15.05 | 14.98 | (0.03) |
| 16.39 27-Jan-22 | 14.71 | 14.64 | 0.00 |
| 14.20 14-Mar-24 | 14.80 | 14.73 | (0.08) |
| 12.50 22-Jan-26 | 15.02 | 14.95 | (0.03) |
| 16.29 17-Mar-27 | 14.99 | 14.92 | (0.04) |
| 12.15 18-Jul-34 | 14.74 | 14.67 | (0.05) |
| 12.40 18-Mar-36 | 14.73 | 14.66 | (0.06) |
| 16.25 18-Apr-37 | 14.68 | 14.61 | (0.06) |
Source: Zedcrest Dealing Desk
Treasury Bills
The T-bills market was slightly bearish, with slight sell on some short and medium tenured bills, as some banks tried to generate liquidity to fund for their retail FX bids. Average T-bill yields consequently rose slightly by 9bps to 17.98%. We expect yields to trend slightly higher opening next week, with market liquidity expected to get tighter on further OMO and FX sales by the CBN.
| Table 2: Benchmark Treasury Bills Rates | |||
| Description | Bid (%) | Offer (%) | Day Change (%) |
| 7-Dec-17 | 15.25 | 15.00 | 0.25 |
| 4-Jan-18 | 16.50 | 16.25 | 0.60 |
| 1-Feb-18 | 17.60 | 17.35 | 0.20 |
| 1-Mar-18 | 17.00 | 16.75 | 0.40 |
| 5-Apr-18 | 17.15 | 16.90 | 0.00 |
| 3-May-18 | 17.45 | 17.20 | 0.00 |
| 14-Jun-18 | 17.75 | 17.50 | (0.05) |
| 5-Jul-18 | 17.25 | 17.00 | 0.05 |
| 2-Aug-18 | 16.75 | 16.50 | 0.45 |
| 13-Sep-18 | 15.00 | 14.75 | 0.00 |
| 4-Oct-18 | 15.50 | 15.25 | 0.00 |
Source: Zedcrest Dealing Desk
The CBN sold a total of N121million (97-day) and N65.90billion (216-day) bills at its OMO auction today, with rates maintained at 16% and 17.80% respectively.
| Table 3: OMO – 17 November 2017 | ||||
| Tenor | Rate (%) | Offer (NBn) | Sub (N’bn) | Sale (N’bn) |
| 97 day | 16.00 | 30.00 | 0.121 | 0.121 |
| 216 day | 17.80 | 70.00 | 65.90 | 65.90 |
Source: CBN
The Money Market
The OBB and OVN rates spiked to 26.67% and 27.67% from 7% levels in the previous session. This was on the backdrop of the OMO T-bill and retail SMIS by the CBN. Market liquidity is consequently estimated to close at N101bn negative, from a positive opening figure of N165billion. We expect rates to trend higher on Monday, due to expected OMO and wholesale SMIS by the CBN.
| Table 4: Money Market Rates | ||
| Current (%) | Previous (%) | |
| Open Buy Back (OBB) | 26.67 | 6.17 |
| Overnight (O/N) | 27.67 | 6.67 |
Source: FMDQ, Zedcrest Research
The FX Market
The CBN Official spot rate remained stable at its previous day rate of N305.95/$. Its external reserves is also recorded to have improved by 2.04% to $34.33billion as at 15th of November 2017. Rates at the Investors and exporters FX window depreciated to N360.40/$ from N359.56/$ in the previous session. The parallel market however remained stable at its previous day rate of N362.50/$.
| Table 5: FX Rates | ||
| Current (N/$) | Previous ( N/$) | |
| CBN Spot | 305.95 | 306.00 |
| CBN SMIS | 330.00 | 330.00 |
| I&E FX Window | 359.56 | 360.42 |
| Parallel Market | 362.50 | 362.50 |
Source: CBN, FMDQ, REXEL BDC



