March 5, 2020

by Jimi Ogbobine

In a recent discussion on Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook for 2020 and 2021, Agusto Consulting has predicted that Nigeria’s inflation rate would become slightly higher than the long-term rate of 12%. The consulting firm have also envisaged that the negative outlook for the economy within this period, include the normalization of cash reserve requirements by the CBN, the recent COVID-19 virus, the net capital expenditure by businesses in the real sector and the net foreign investments, especially the FDI component.

More positively and also a key economic driver in 2020 and 2021, the Banking sector loan will see some growth to the real sector and changes in level of non-oil tax revenue.

The consulting firm further predicted that in the midst of the corona virus outbreak, Nigeria will be principally impacted more by weaker oil prices in H1 2020 and weaker imports from China. It also analyzed that the real GDP growth was weak and below 3% and unemployment was very unlikely to improve.

On oil & gas export revenues, it highlighted that 2018 saw the highest revenue with $57bn and 2021 projected to hit $55bn.   

Agusto & Co Consulting is a wholly owned subsidiary of Agusto & Co., a foremost rating agency, with a deep knowledge of African economies and key industries, providing value-adding business solutions to a wide range of clients. Agusto & Co through its economic consulting services, provides clients in the financial and real sectors with an in-depth assessment of the political and macroeconomic environment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The consulting firm also provides services in economic consulting; business strategy and operations; risk management; people and organization; governance and compliance and trainings.