August 24, 2020/Coronation Report

Nigeria’s Q2 GDP performance was released this morning, with GDP down 6.10% year-on-year and non-oil GDP down 6.05% y/y. This was not a surprise (although one forecast poll predicted a 4.05% decline), given that in June the World Bank forecast a 3.2% contraction and the IMF forecast a 5.4% contraction for full-year 2020, suggesting that some poor quarters lay ahead.

After growth of 1.87% y/y in Q1 2020, the Q2 2020 data are consistent with Nigeria experiencing a significant recession in 2020. Q2 was weak and Q3 is likely to be weak, too.  Even then, the volatility of some of the moves in GDP sub-sectors (notably Trade and Telecoms) during Q2 was surprising.

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