August 17, 2022/CSL Research
The supporters of Peter Obi’s presidential bid, popularly referred to as the ‘Obidients’ appear to have been re-energised with the emergence of William Samoei Arap Ruto as the Presidentelect in the just concluded presidential election in Kenya. To them, Peter Obi and William Ruto share similar circumstances, hence Ruto’s victory beams a glimmer of hope for Obi in the forthcoming 2023 presidential elections in Nigeria. On Monday, August 15, 2022, Mr Wanyonyi Wafula Chebukati, the chairman of the Independent Electoral and Boundary Commission (IEBC) of Kenya, declared William Ruto the winner of the country’s keenly contested presidential election which was held on August 9, 2022. Wafula Chebukati said Ruto had won 7.18 million votes (50.49%) against 6.94 million (48.85%) of his rival, Raila Odinga in the August 9 election. The victory of William Ruto came as a surprise as the incumbent president Uhuru Kenyatta showed strong support for Raila Odinga.
A closer look at the situations of both William Ruto and Peter Obi reveals some differences that cannot be overlooked. On one hand, William Ruto has been the Vice President to Uhuru Kenyatta since 2013. Prior to his assuming the office of the Vice President, he had functioned as a Member of Parliament (MP) from 1998 to 2013, Minister for Home Affairs from August to December 2002, Minister of Agriculture from 2008 to 2010, and as Minister for Higher Education from April to October 2010. We believe his membership of the ruling Jubilee Alliance in the capacity of a Vice President in the past 10 years was a huge advantage that played out in his favour. The protracted feud between himself and President Uhuru Kenyatta resulted in a split within the ruling Jubilee Alliance as some loyalists of William Ruto joined forces with him to birth United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and ultimately formed the Kenya Kwanza Alliance (an alliance of 12 political parties). Not only did the alliance ensure victory for William Ruto, but the party also won a majority of seats in Kenya’s senate and the second highest in the National Assembly.
Peter Obi, on the other hand, does not appear to have as strong a curriculum vitae as William Ruto. Though, it appears he has been adopted by the youths as their preferred candidate, mainly for his perceived integrity and economic management prowess. We, however, note that, in the absence of any strong alliances, Labour Party may not be able to build the structures required to defeat the ruling All Progressive Party in the forthcoming 2023 presidential elections, nor will it be able to produce representatives in the National Assembly.
We had earlier noted the influence of party loyalty, religious bias, and ethnic sentiments in the determination of voting patterns in Nigeria. This is further reinforced by the fact that many the voters particularly in the rural areas are uneducated and lack the capacity to make personal choices along the lines of competence, integrity, and other critical parameters, thereby keeping them perpetually under the influence of political godfathers. Winning this block of voters would require grassroot structures which we believe will take Peter Obi some time to build. Besides, vote buying has also become a popular practice, particularly among candidates and parties with deep pockets.
