June 7, 2023/FBNQuest
According to the most recent foreign trade in goods report produced by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the total value of Nigeria’s merchandise trade dropped by 18% y/y to NGN12trn in Q1 ‘23. This figure comprises export and import trade balances of NGN6.5trn and NGN5.6trn respectively, which resulted in a net surplus of NGN927bn. The decline in the merchandise trade value can be attributed to decreases in both export and import trade; however, the import trade experienced a more significant decline of -26% y/y. Export trade also decreased by approximately -9% y/y.
Crude oil exports, which accounted for c.79.4% of total export value during the quarter, decreased by -8% y/y to NGN5.1trn. The decline can be linked to lower crude oil prices y/y.
Based on CBN data, we see that the price of Nigeria’s benchmark crude blend, the bonny light, averaged c.USD84/barrel in Q1 ’23 compared with an average of USD103/bin Q1 ’22.
Considering exports of other oil-related products, the combined share of crude oil and other oil-related exports rises to approximately 89% of the total export value.
Non-oil oil exports declined -9% y/y to NGN653bn, representing a share of c.10.1% of total exports. The top three non-oil exports were urea, cocoa beans, and sesamum seeds which accounted for 2.3%, 1.3%, and 1.0% of total export value respectively.
The top export destinations were the Netherlands (12.9%), United States (8.9%%), and Spain (7.5%).
The country’s top imports were manufactured goods and other oil products, comprising 43.1% and 38.8% of total imports, respectively. The key import items were premium motor spirit (26.8%), automotive gas oil (8.5%), and durum wheat (4.5%).
Notably, other oil products consisting mostly of motor spirit declined -40% y/y to NGN2.1trn. Their y/y decline also reflects the lower prices of crude oil relative to the corresponding quarter of 2022.
Other top products on the import league table are cane sugar, kerosine, and used vehicles which made up 1.36%, 1.26%, and 1.25% respectively.
China accounted for the largest share of total imports at 23.3%. It was followed by the Netherlands and Belgium with 10.4% and 9.3% of total imports respectively.
