September 6, 2023/FBNQuest

According to the data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the number of active mobile lines in Nigeria increased by slightly over 774,000 (+0.4%) m/m to almost 221 million in Jul ‘23. This marks the first monthly rise in mobile connections since Feb ‘23 when the number of active mobile lines grew by 1 million. Although one month’s data point is not enough to draw definite conclusions, it appears that active mobile lines have returned to their normalised growth trajectory. This follows previous m/m declines in active lines, caused by the NCC’s directive to network providers to disconnect lines that have been idle for a minimum of six months.

In contrast, the number of internet connections increased only marginally by 36,000 to 159 million during the same period.

With respect to market share, the dynamics remained largely unchanged with MTN Nigeria (MTNN) retaining its leadership position with 85.3 million subscribers, representing a 38.7% market share, a slight increase of 20bps m/m.

MTNN gained market share at the expense of Globacom (Glo) and Airtel Nigeria (Airtel), both of which saw their market share of subscribers decline by roughly -10bps m/m to 27.8% and 27.2%, respectively.

9Mobile, the smallest of the four big telecommunications providers saw a 5bps increase in its share of active lines to 6.2%.

Although GSM operators’ voice revenue has continued to grow broadly in single digits, Nigeria’s telecommunications market is now approaching saturation point.

As such, GSM companies cannot depend solely on subscriber accretion to drive revenue growth.

5G networks are still in their early stages and make up a small portion of the telcos’ network infrastructure.

However, companies with 5G offerings such as MTNN and Airtel could experience even greater revenue growth with increasing adoption of the spectrum.