December 8, 2023/Coronation Research

The latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its series on foreign trade in goods shows the total value of trade grew by +53.2% y/y to N18.8trn in Q3 ’23 vs +17.2% y/y in Q3 ‘22. On a q/q basis, it increased by 54.6%. The total export value increased by 60.8% q/q to N10.3trn compared with N6.4trn recorded in Q2.

This can be partly attributed to fx liberalization policy impact resulting in c.40% depreciation of NGN/USD. The import value increased by 47.7% q/q to N8.5bn from N5.7trn. The net result was a surplus of N1.9trn, compared to a surplus of N708.9bn recorded in Q2 ‘23. Total trade as a percentage of nominal GDP (2022) stood at 9.4% in Q3 ’23, compared with 6% in Q2 ’23.

According to the NBS report, imports in Q3 ’23 originated mainly from China (N1.97trn) accounting for 23.3% of the total imports. This was followed by Belgium N996.7bn (11.8%), India N802.1bn (9.5%), Malta N561.4bn (6.64%), and the United States N502.9bn (5.9%). These countries collectively accounted for 57.2% of the total imports in Q3 ’23. Imports from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) stood at N41bn, representing 16.8% of total imports within Africa.

In the quarter under review, manufactured goods accounted for the largest share of imports, 46.8% and its import value grew significantly by 41.5% q/q. Following closely, petroleum oil products accounted for 33.71% of imports, and exhibited significant growth of 72.6% q/q. Raw materials accounted for 11.24%. Conversely, solid minerals registered a modest share of 0.65%. Agricultural goods followed suit with a 7.61% share, experiencing a notable growth in value of 31.0% q/q.

Regarding exports, the top six export destinations were Spain with exports valued at N1.27trn (12.31%), India N1.02trn (9.81%), the Netherlands N988.6bn (9.56%), Indonesia (7.33%), France (6.96%), and the United States (5.88%). These countries collectively accounted for 52% of total exports in Q3 ’23.

Crude oil accounted for 82.5% of total exports in Q3 ’23, its export value grew by 70.5% q/q to N8.5trn vs +5% q/q recorded in the previous quarter. Based on a separate data from the NBS, average crude oil production (condensates inclusive) in Q3 was 1.57mbpd compared with 1.50mbpd in Q2. This is lower than the OPEC production quota for Nigeria which was 1.7mbpd.

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