July 2, 2024/Coronation Research

The latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its series on foreign trade in goods shows that the total value of trade grew by +146% y/y to N31.8trn in Q1 ’24. On a q/q basis, it rose by +46%.  The total export value increased by +51% q/q to N19.2trn compared with N12.6trn recorded in Q4 ‘23.

The import value increased by +39.6% q/q to N12.6bn from N9.1trn in Q4 ‘23. The net result was a surplus of N6.5trn in Q1 ’24 vs N3.6trn in Q4 ’23.  It is worth noting that the total trade as a percentage of nominal GDP stood at 54% in Q1 ’24, compared with 33% in Q4’ 23.

According to the NBS report, the top 5 import trading partners in Q1 ’24 were China with N2.9trn (23.2%), India N1.1trn (N8.5%), USA N1.0trn (8.0%), Belgium N955.9bn (7.6%) and Netherlands N591.5bn (4.7%). These countries collectively accounted for 52% of total imports in Q1 ‘24. Imports from ECOWAS stood at N113bn, representing 28% of total imports within Africa.

Manufacturing goods accounted for the largest share of imports, 45.4%, followed by other oil products 35.2%, raw material 11.6%, and agriculture 7.3% However, solid minerals registered a modest share of 0.5%, experiencing a notable growth in value of 59.2% y/y to N71.4bn in Q1 ’24.

Regarding export destinations, France was Nigeria’s top exporting partner in Q1 ’24, with exports valued at N2.1trn (11.1%). This was followed by Spain N2trn (10.6%), the Netherlands at N1.7trn (8.8%), India at N1.6trn (8.4%), and the United States at N1.3trn (6.8%). Collectively, these five countries accounted for 45.7% of Nigeria’s total exports in Q1 ’24.

Crude oil accounted for 81% of total exports in Q1 ‘24, its export value grew by +50% q/q to N15.4trn vs 10.3trn recorded in Q4 ‘23. Based on separate data from the NURPC, average crude oil production (condensates inclusive) in Q1 ‘24 was 1.54mbpd compared with 1.53mbpd in Q4 ’23.

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