August 20, 2024/CSL Research
A recent report by Punch newspaper has revealed a warning from the United Nations, predicting that 82 million Nigerians—approximately 64% of the population—could face hunger by 2030. The UN has called on the Nigerian government to urgently address critical issues such as climate change, pest infestations, and other threats to agricultural productivity. Previous reports from reputable organizations have consistently highlighted the severity of the situation.
In 2023, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projected that at least 2.6 million people in Borno, Sokoto, Zamfara states, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) could face a food crisis between June and August 2024. Furthermore, a government-led Cadre Harmonisé analysis released in March 2024 indicated that approximately 4.8 million people in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states are suffering from severe food insecurity—the highest level recorded in seven years.
Nigeria’s food supply has faced severe disruptions over the years due to violent conflicts, including insurgency in the Northeast, armed banditry in the Northwest, and ongoing farmer-herder clashes in the Northcentral and Southwest regions.
These conflicts, coupled with rising inflation that has driven up input costs, poor implementation of agricultural policies, high transportation expenses, and outbreaks of plant infestations, have significantly hampered food production and distribution. These challenges have exacerbated the cost-of-living crisis, making it increasingly difficult for citizens to access affordable food. Additionally, the impact of climate change, particularly the rising frequency of floods, has further strained food production, leading to reduced availability and higher prices.
In July, food inflation in Nigeria decreased by 134 basis points to 39.53% y/y, down from 40.87% in June. This decline was primarily attributed to base effects and the early harvest of some crops. Despite this slight improvement, the food supply situation remains precarious. To address the ongoing crisis, the government has taken proactive steps, such as suspending duties, tariffs, and taxes on key commodity imports—including maize, husked brown rice, wheat, and cowpeas—for the next 150 days to help ease price pressures. However, further proactive measures are necessary, particularly in strengthening the country’s security infrastructure. Ensuring a safer environment for farmers is crucial to increasing food production and preventing a potential food crisis.
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