September 12, 2024/CSL Research
Data from the recent Foreign Trades report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), shows that Nigeria’s total merchandise trade stood at ₦31,892.46 billion in Q2 2024, a decrease of 3.76% q/q over the value recorded in Q1 2024. Conversely, this was a rise of 150.39% year-on-year (y/y) compared to the value recorded in the corresponding period of 2023. In the quarter under review, exports accounted for 60.89% of total trade value at ₦19,418.93 billion, a marginal increase of 1.31% compared to the value recorded in Q1 2024 (₦19,167.36 billion) and a 201.76% rise over the value recorded in the second quarter of 2023 (₦6,435.13 billion).
Distilling the export trade numbers, we note that crude oil exports continued to dominate, coming in at ₦14,559.56 billion in Q2 2024 (74.98% of total exports) while the value of non-crude oil exports was ₦4,859.37 billion accounting for 25.02% of total exports.
On the other hand, total imports at ₦12,473.53 billion accounted for 39.11% of total trade in Q2 2024. This was a 10.71% decline from the value recorded in Q1 2024 (₦13,970.05 billion) and an increase of 97.93% compared to the value recorded in Q2 2023 (₦6,301.95 billion). The merchandise trade balance in the second quarter of 2024 remained positive at ₦6,945.40 billion, an increase of 33.63% compared to the value recorded in the preceding quarter.
China remains Nigeria’s highest trading partner on the import side, followed by Belgium, India, United States of America, and the Netherlands while the most traded commodities in Q2 2024 were motor spirit (ordinary), gas oil, durum wheat, butanes and cane sugar for sugar refining. On the flip, Spain led the top exporting countries in the quarter, followed by the United States of America, France, India, and the Netherlands. The most exported commodities included crude oil, liquefied natural gas, other petroleum gases in a gaseous state, superior-quality cocoa beans, and urea.
Recent trade data indicate improved trade dynamics for the country in the quarter under review, driven by the q/q growth in exports of manufactured goods, raw materials, energy products, and other oil-related products. However, it’s important to note the significant impact of currency depreciation on the recorded export growth, particularly when looking at y/y figures. Despite this, the country’s Trade-to-GDP ratio has continued to improve, now at 52.34%. This is a considerable increase from the COVID-19 era low of 13.69% and well above the 18-quarter average of 27.12%. The rise reflects the positive effects of the ongoing push towards an export-driven economy.
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