October 4, 2024/CSL Research
Data from the recently released 2023 Petroleum Products Distribution Statis2tics by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that Nigeria produced only 1.46 billion litres of premium motor spirit (PMS), or petrol, domestically between 2015 and 2019. This low production was due to the country’s moribund refineries. In 2015, Nigeria produced 377.9 million litres of petrol. This dropped sharply to 1.05 million litres in 2016, followed by 951.56 million litres in 2017, and 128.1 million litres in 2019. Notably, no petrol was refined domestically in 2018. From 2020 to 2023, as the country’s state-owned refineries remained inactive, only automotive gas oil (AGO), commonly known as diesel, and household kerosene (HKK) were produced, largely with the help of modular refineries. Over the nine-year period from 2015 to 2023, Nigeria produced 2.57 billion litres of diesel and 1.82 billion litres of kerosene.
In 2023, Nigeria imported 20.30 billion litres of petrol, a 13.77% decrease from the 23.54 billion litres imported in 2022. In contrast, diesel imports rose by 23.66%, reaching 4.94 billion litres in 2023 compared to 4.00 billion litres the previous year. There were no kerosene imports in both 2023 and 2022. The trend in petrol distribution closely followed importation patterns, with the volume of petrol trucked out in 2023 falling by 16.96% to 20.22 billion litres, down from 24.35 billion litres in 2022. A deeper analysis of petrol import data for 2024 shows a notable decline in the second half of the year (8.36 billion litres), compared to both the first half of 2024 (11.94 billion litres) and the second half of 2023 (11.98 billion litres). This significant drop is primarily due to the removal of petrol subsidies under the new administration.
In September 2024, the Dangote Refinery Limited began supplying premium motor spirit (PMS), marking the end of an extended period of drought in domestic petrol production, caused by the prolonged inactivity of Nigeria’s state-owned refineries in Port-Harcourt, Kaduna, and Warri. Among the expected benefits of this development is the improved transparency in tracking domestic petrol consumption, facilitated by more accurate monitoring of truck-out volumes from the refinery. Additionally, the country’s average daily petrol consumption has been declining significantly since the removal of fuel subsidies. This trend is largely driven by the impact of rising petrol prices, which has curbed domestic demand and reduced smuggling activities.
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