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• According to the recently released data from the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to 32.70% YoY in September 2024, up from 32.15% YoY in August 2024. This marked a reversal of the slight easing which began in July (33.40%) and further declined in August 2024, indicating renewed inflationary pressures.
  

• Food inflation remains a critical concern, climbing by 25bps to 37.77% YoY in September 2024, compared to 37.52% in August 2024. This sharp rise reflects the pressures on households due to increased costs in essential food items, such as grains, cooking oils, meat, and beverages.
  

• Contrary to the upward headline inflation trend in September, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, declined slightly to 27.43% YoY in September 2024, down from 27.58% in August 2024. This decrease can be attributed to a slight easing from the high base effects from the previous year. Looking at the monthly numbers, core inflation showed a slower increase as the index had declined by 17bps to 2.10% YoY in September 2024.
  

• Going forward, we expect Nigeria’s inflation trend to remain challenging, with persistent price pressures reflecting deep-rooted economic issues. While the Central Bank may consider tighter monetary policy at their next meeting, we believe that addressing structural problems like currency volatility, high energy costs, and supply chain inefficiencies is crucial for sustainable stability.