October 18, 2024/United Capital Research
Anglophone West Africa (WAEMU)
Nigeria
- Foreign capital from BRICS countries into Nigeria rises by 189.00% in six months
Nigeria’s foreign capital inflows from BRICS nations have surged by 189.00% in the first half of 2024, amid the country’s ongoing efforts to secure a spot within the expanded BRICS coalition. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that capital importation from BRICS countries rose from $438.72mn in the first six months of 2023 to $1.27bn in the same period of 2024. The BRICS group, initially comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, expanded on 1-Jan-2024, by officially welcoming five new members: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
- Oil production drops by 27,000bpd
In its Monthly Oil Market Report for October, Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) disclosed that Nigeria’s crude production fell from 1.352mbpd in August to 1.324mbpd in September. This figure indicates that the country has lost an average of 27,000bpd. This is coming at a time when the Federal Government said it was making efforts to hit two million bpd.
- Nigeria’s inflation rose to 32.70% in September 2024
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate for September 2024 rose to 32.70% after slowing consecutively in the previous two months of July and August. It is a marginal increase of 0.55% from the August 2024 figure of 32.15%, reflecting ongoing price pressures across the country. Year-on-Year, inflation has surged by 5.98% compared to the 26.72% recorded in September 2023.
- World Bank projects 10.50% revenue-to-GDP growth for Nigeria by year-end
The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s revenue-to-GDP ratio could rise to over 10.5% by the end of 2024, following the recent increase in government revenue. The Federal Government recently reported a 100.00% rise in revenue to N9.10tn in the first half of 2024, compared to the same period last year. Ndiamé Diop, World Bank country director for Nigeria urged the federal government to sustain key reforms such as the unification of foreign exchange rates and the removal of fuel subsidies.
- Nigeria attracts $55.50bn in foreign investment since 2019
Nigeria has managed to attract a total of $55.50bn in foreign capital inflows between Q1-2019 and Q2-2024. Since 2019, Nigeria has attracted a total of $3.60bn in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), while the remaining $51.90bn came in the form of Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI). Notably, Nigeria received its largest single-year capital inflow of $23.9bn, while 2023 recorded the lowest amount, with just $3.9bn.
Ghana
- Finance Minister welcomes Moody’s upgrades
Credit rating agency, Moody’s, upgraded Ghana’s credit ratings, reflecting significant improvements in the country’s financial situation. The agency upgraded Ghana’s long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings to “Caa2” from “Caa3” and “Ca,” respectively. The US-based firm also revised the country’s outlook to “positive” from “stable.”
- Ghana lost 120K tons of cocoa to smuggling between 2022 and 2023
The Chief Executive Officer of the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), Joseph Boahene Aidoo, has revealed that Ghana lost an alarming 120,000 metric tons of cocoa beans to smuggling between 2022 and 2023. This significant loss poses a major threat to Ghana’s cocoa industry, a vital sector of the national economy. The smuggling of cocoa beans, a long-standing issue in Ghana, appears to have worsened in recent years, driven largely by the allure of favourable prices in neighbouring countries.
- Chinese mining company buys $1billion goldfield in Ghana
China’s Zijin Mining Group is poised to acquire the Akyem gold mine project in Ghana from US-based Newmont Corporation in a $1.00bn deal. The transaction, which includes $900 million in cash upon closure and an additional $100.00mn subject to certain conditions, is expected to be finalized in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Francophone Africa
Senegal
- Senegal unveils 25-year economic and social development plan
Senegal’s government unveiled a 25-year development plan on Monday that it said would lay the foundations for economic sovereignty through competitiveness, sustainable resource management and good governance.
- Senegal Plans to Invest About $30.5 Billion in Development
Senegal, a nascent oil and gas producer, intends spending about 12.8 trillion CFA francs ($21 billion) on development over the next five years and aims to garner another 5.7 trillion CFA in private investment, a draft government plan shows.
- Senegal Unveils Ambitious $3.3 billion Plan for National Transformation
The Senegalese government has revealed its five-year action plan for 2025-2029, marking the first phase of the “Senegal 2050” national transformation agenda, the government has allocated a substantial 18,493.83 billion FCFA ($3.3 billion) for this initial phase. The public sector will contribute 62.3% of the resources, while the private sector will provide 14.1%. The remaining 23.6% will come from public-private partnerships (PPPs), with the state contributing 30% to these collaborations.
Mali
- Mali temporarily lifts Starlink ban for 6 months to develop new regulatory framework
Mali’s military government has lifted its seven-month ban on importing and selling Starlink satellite Internet kits, marking a significant shift in the country’s approach to Internet access. The decision allows citizens to reconnect to Elon Musk’s satellite-based service for six months, while authorities establish a new regulatory framework.
Ivory Coast
- Cocoa arrivals down 12.3% year-on-year
Cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast reached 100,000 metric tons by Oct. 13 since the start of the season on Oct. 1, down 12.3% compared with the same period last season, exporters estimated on Monday. Exporters’ data showed the comparative figure for last year’s arrivals was revised down to 114,000 tons from 115,000 tons. About 40,000 tons of beans were delivered to Abidjan port and 47,000 tons to San Pedro between October 7 and October 13 for a total of 87,000 tons, up from 64,000 tons the same week the previous season.
Togo
- Niger, Togo, Benin Owe Nigeria N9.41bn Electricity Bill for Q2 2024
The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) says international customers owe $5.79 million for electricity supply in the second quarter (Q2) of 2024. The debt amounts to N9.41 billion when converted using the official exchange rate of N1626.32/$ as of October 10.
East Africa
Kenya
- Kenya eyes Sh113bn mega IMF loan disbursement
Kenya expects to receive Sh113bn in the next tranche of loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) following a breakthrough in protracted talks that delayed funding from the multilateral lender after rejection of new tax measures in June this year.
- New Petrol, Diesel, and Kerosene Prices in Nairobi, Mombasa, Eldoret, Other Big Towns in Kenya
EPRA announced that super petrol, diesel, and kerosene prices have been reduced across Kenya, with the new rates effective from October 14, 2024 In Nairobi, the price of super petrol has dropped by KSh 8.18 to KSh 180.66 per litre, while diesel now costs KSh 168.06 and kerosene is priced at KSh 151.39 Major towns like Mombasa, Kisumu, and Garissa also experienced price drops, with super petrol now retailing at KSh 177.42 in Mombasa and KSh 185.14 in Garissa.
- Govt Highlights Measures to Ease Liquidity Crisis
Treasury and Economic Planning Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi has announced that his ministry is accelerating efforts to address liquidity challenges by collaborating with the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) to lower exchange rates. In a statement, Mbadi emphasized the importance of affordable lending, which he believes will significantly impact the country’s economic growth.
- Kenya’s Treasury aims to end banks’ dominance of bond market
Kenya’s National Treasury is seeking to reduce the dominance of banks in government securities investments by opening up the market to more non-bank financial institutions.
Tanzania
- Maersk supports Tanzania’s cashew trade
AP Moller–Maersk has announced the launch of its new seasonal ocean service, the Korosho Express, specifically designed to support the Tanzania cashew trade. The service will commence operations in late October 2024 and run through February 2025, aligning with the peak cashew season. Korosho Express will provide bi-weekly sailings from the port of Mtwara, Tanzania, to key markets in China, Vietnam, and India, Maersk said.
- Tanzania Commits to Universal Electricity Access in Africa By 2030
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Energy, Dr Doto Biteko on Wednesday assured that Tanzania is fully committed to supporting realisation of universal electricity access in Africa by 2030. Briefing journalists on the side-line of the 9th Africa Energy Market Place meeting in Dar es Salaam, Dr Biteko said the country will leverage on its excess power generation to complement neighbouring countries’ demand.
Uganda
- Uganda Signs Shs10.8trillion Deal for SGR With Turkish Firm
Uganda has signed a landmark $3bn (approximately shs10.8 trillion ) contract with Turkish construction firm Yapi Merkezi to build a 272km section of railway, boosting regional trade and economic integration. The deal, a priority for the Northern Corridor Integration Projects (NCIP) was signed in Kampala by Mr. Waiswa Bageya, the Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Works and Transport and Yapi Merkezi Holdings Vice Chairman Erdem Arioğlu.
- Museveni Makes Case for Investment in Uganda
President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has implored investors to take advantage of Uganda’s economic potential and boost its exports. ” This is the right place and time to invest. We have everything here,” Museveni said. He was on Thursday meeting a group, including delegates from the American diaspora and others that are currently participating in the Pan-African Congress Business Forum, which began on October 6 and will conclude on 12, 2024, at Speke Resort, Munyonyo, Kampala.
- Uganda financial institutions sign on for digital KYC through national ID
Uganda’s central bank, known officially as the Bank of Uganda (BoU), says up to 74 financial institutions now have access to the database of the National Identification and Registration Authority (NIRA) for purposes of digital Know Your Customer (KYC) verification.
Southern Africa
Angola
- Angola inflation rate slows to 5-month low
The annual inflation rate in Angola eased for the second month to 29.93% in Sept-2024, the softest in five months, down from 30.53% in Aug-2024. Still, it remains above the Central Bank’s 23.00% target for the end of this year. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 1.63% in the month under review, following a 1.61% increase in the prior month.
- Angola Plans More Aid to Poor with $400 Million World Bank Loan
Angola will extend a cash-transfer program for low-income families as a weaker currency and sky-high inflation continue to drive up living costs in the oil-producing African nation. The so-called Kwenda program will run until 2029, following the recent approval by the World Bank of an additional $400 million loan,
- Trade between Angola and China increases by 4.6% billion in the first half of the year
The trade between Angola and China reached 10.6 billion dollars from January to June this year, representing growth of 4.6% in relation to the transactions recorded in the same period last year, according to Zhang Bin, the Chinese ambassador to Angola, for the next few years, China intends to negotiate some concrete projects in Angola, within the scope of the financial line with 51 billion dollars for Africa.
South Africa
- South Africa’s c.bank says policy outlook dependent on inflation expectations
South Africa’s central bank said that as price pressures continued to moderate, it would shift its policy focus to monitoring how core inflation and inflation expectations respond. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) lowered its main lending rate by 25 basis points in September to 8.00%, its first cut in nearly four years, after inflation fell below its targeted midpoint of 4.50%.
- South African business confidence dips, but post-election trend still positive
South African business confidence dipped in September on lower vehicle and retail sales and a drop in the value of building plans, but the overall trend since May’s election remains positive. The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell to 110.20 in Sept-2024, down from 111.50 in Aug-2024 but higher than the 109.1 recorded in Jul-2024.
- South African retail sales rise 3.20% year-on-year in August
South African retail sales rose 3.20% year-on-year in Aug-2024 after rising by a revised 1.70% in Jul-2024, according to the Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) figures. This marked the sixth consecutive month of growth in retail activity and at a robust pace. On a monthly basis, retail sales rose 0.50% month-on-month in August.
- Manufacturing production drops 1.20% in August
Manufacturing production in South Africa fell by 1.20% in Aug-2024, compared with the same month last year, according to the latest data from Stats SA. The drop in production was largely driven by the motor vehicles, parts and accessories sector, which experienced a major decrease of 16.10%, contributing -1.6 percentage points to the overall decline.
- S.Africa’s Eskom: 36.00% tariff hike needed because of earlier regulatory decisions
South African utility Eskom has asked the energy regulator to approve a 36% power tariff hike from April next year because of a shortfall caused by previous regulatory decisions going against it, it said on Monday. Eskom has been mired in financial difficulties for years and is known for subjecting South Africans to routine power blackouts. But in 2024, it has seen a dramatic turnaround in its plant performance, which has allowed Africa’s most industrialised economy to go more than 200 days in a row without power cuts, boosting investor sentiment and leading to expectations for faster growth.
- South African tax service says $1.20 bln paid out in 6 weeks since pension reform
South Africa’s tax service said that 21.40 billion rand ($1.20 billion) had been paid out in the six weeks since a reform took effect, allowing people to make partial withdrawals from their pension funds before retirement. The “two-pot” pension policy reform is meant to support long-term retirement savings while offering flexibility to help fund members in financial distress.
Namibia
- Namibia central bank cuts key rate again to help growth
Namibia’s central bank cut its main interest rate for the second meeting, saying inflation had fallen surprisingly quickly and that the economy needed more support. Its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25%, the same size of cut as at August’s meeting. The MPC noted the growing momentum in the international monetary policy easing cycle, the retreat in domestic inflation over the medium term, and the recent downside surprise in the September 2024 inflation print.
Zambia
- Govt insist on 3.00m tons copper production target by 2031
Finance Minister Dr. Situmbeko Musokotwane has insisted that the government will follow through on its consistent target of hitting 3.00 million tons of annual copper production by 2031 despite all indicators showing that this is yet another target the new dawn administration is set to miss. At average selling prices of US$9,400 per ton, 3.00 million tons of production would deliver a whopping annual revenue of US$28.00 billion for Zambia-based copper mines.
- Zambia reaps $6 million deals in DRC
ZAMBIA Development Agency (ZDA) says out of the US$13.80 million in deals secured during last year’s trade mission to Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), US$6.00 million worth of deals have been actualised. The agency has since embarked on another trade venture to DRC with a delegation of 40 companies. The primary goal of this trade mission is to enhance Zambia’s non-traditional exports (NTEs) and secure market access for Zambian products. The agency aims to penetrate, consolidate, and expand the Congolese market for these goods.
Zimbabwe
- Zimbabwean miners expect profits to fall in 2025, report says
According to a report, Zimbabwean miners expect profits to decline due to anticipated high production costs and a weak outlook for platinum and lithium in 2025. A confluence of global and local factors will eat into the southern African country’s mining revenue and profit next year, said the report by the Chamber of Mines of Zimbabwe (COMZ). Zimbabwe is known for abundant deposits of platinum group metals (PGMs), gold, and lithium.
- Power crisis cripples mining industry
Zimbabwe’s mining sector is reeling from crippling power cuts, enduring prolonged load-shedding daily, and other issues that put miners’ ability to continue operations in jeopardy. Miners are suffering as a result of the rolling blackouts, which have compelled mining businesses to use costly backup diesel generators, increasing production costs. At peak hours, the country’s electricity demand is 1,700 megawatts (MW), but State-owned power utility ZESA’s daily output is around 1,200 MW, resulting in a shortage of electricity of almost 500MW. To cover the shortfall, ZESA is importing electricity from regional power utilities.
- AfDB approves grants for Malawi, Zimbabwe
The African Development Bank (AfDB) has approved grants of US$34.80 million to enhance resilience and adaptation to climate disaster risks for vulnerable communities in Malawi & Zimbabwe. Under the bank’s Africa Disaster Risk Financing (ADRiFi) initiative, the Mitigating Fragility through the ADRiFi programme in Southern Africa project will bolster institutional capacity for climate risk preparedness & management, increase financial protection against climate disaster risks through sovereign climate disaster risk transfer; and promote the adoption of index-based crop insurance to mitigate against drought & other production risks at the micro-level.
Central Africa
Cameroon
- Cameroon Aims to Boost Fish Production by 166% to 600,000 Tons by 2027
Cameroon plans to increase its fish production significantly over the next four years. According to the economic and budgetary programming document for 2025-2027, prepared by the Ministry of Finance, the country intends to raise production from 225,000 tons in 2024 to 600,000 tons by 2027. This represents a remarkable increase of 166.67%.
Democratic Republic of Congo
- DRC cancels auction of 27 oil blocks
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has cancelled the auction of 27 sites earmarked for oil exploration, its government said, citing late bids and a lack of competition. The auction of these sites, known as oil blocks, was launched two years ago but was cancelled because it was not as successful as expected and a new auction will be held, Oil Minister Aime Sakombi Molendo said in a statement.
- Tradex to Enter DRC Oil Market in 2025, Expanding Central African Operations
Tradex, a subsidiary of Cameroon’s National Hydrocarbons Corporation (SNH), is set to begin operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 2025. The company, specializing in aircraft and ship refueling and petroleum product distribution, received approval from its board in June 2024 to launch a DRC branch.
- Mining will support GDP growth of 5.7% in 2025
The DR Congo government has released its draft Finance Act for 2025, proposing a budget increase of 21%, totaling 49,847 billion Congolese francs (over $18 billion). The mining sector is expected to play a vital role in this growth. The DRC government expects a 5.7% economic growth in 2024, mainly driven by a 5.3% increase in the mining sector. This forecast comes from the draft Finance Law for 2025, which also outlines anticipated mining revenues for next year.
