October 25, 2024/United Capital Research
Anglophone West Africa
Nigeria
- Nigeria loses N13.20tn to forex subsidy — World Bank
The Federal Government incurred a significant loss of N13.20tn in foregone revenue as a direct consequence of the implementation of its foreign exchange subsidy policy between 2021 and 2023, according to the World Bank. It said the government lost N2.00tn in 2021, N6.20tn in 2022, and N5.00tn in 2023. This subsidy, designed to stabilise the currency and support certain sectors, ultimately led to significant reductions in the government’s revenue streams during this period.
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- Foreign investors dump N355.00bn stocks over forex crisis
Foreign investors sold off about N355.74bn worth of stocks on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) in the first eight months of 2024. For the period under review, total foreign transactions stood at N655.47bn, which was about 194.22% higher than the N222.78bn recorded for the same period last year. Sell-offs by foreign investors were at their highest in Apr-2024 at N78.25bn, followed by May-2024 when they sold off about N69.41bn, and Jun-2024 at N43.94bn.
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- IMF projects slower economic growth for Nigeria in 2024
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its economic forecast for Nigeria, projecting a slowdown in the country’s growth for 2024. Nigeria’s economy is now expected to grow at 2.90% in 2024, maintaining the same growth pace recorded in 2023. The latest projection is a 0.20% decrease from the previous projection in July and a 0.40% decrease from the previous projection in April.
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- Nigeria’s public debt hits N134.30tn in Q2 2024
Nigeria’s public debt stock surged to N134.30tn ($91.30bn) by the end of the Q2-2024. This was an increase of 10.35% q/q from the N121.70tn ($91.50bn) recorded in Q1-2024. Notably, domestic debt accounted for 53.00% of the total, amounting to N71.20tn ($48.40bn), while external debt made up 47.00%, equivalent to N63.10tn ($42.90bn).
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- Nigeria’s 51.00% debt-to-GDP ratio seen falling in 2025
Nigeria’s debt burden, also known as net debt percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rose to 50.70% in Oct-2024 from 46.10% in the corresponding period of 2023. This is amid the increased borrowings by the Federal Government (FG) and slow economic growth. However, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the figure will drop marginally to 49.60% by 2025.
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Ghana
- Mobile Money accounts surpass 65.00mn, transactions exceeding GHS 1.90tn BoG
The 2023 FinTech Sector Report by the Bank of Ghana (BOG) has revealed significant growth in the country’s digital financial landscape, with mobile money accounts surpassing 65.00mn and transaction values exceeding GHC 1.90tn. This marks a major milestone in Ghana’s journey towards a more inclusive and cash-lite economy.
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- Industry sector grows by 8.20% in Q2-2024 – GSS
The y/y change in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for Q2-2024 grew by 8.20%, Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) has said. By this on average, production in the industry sector grew by 8.20% in 2024 on average compared to the second quarter in 2023. The IIP measures changes over time in production volumes for the industry sector. According to a report by GSS, the manufacturing sub-sector grew by 8.30% in Q2-2024 while mining and quarrying grew by 9.20% in the same period.
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Francophone West Africa
Ivory Coast
- Ivory Coast Inflation Rate at Over 3-1/2-Year Low
The annual inflation rate in Ivory Coast fell to 2.80% in Sept-2024, down from August’s three-month high of 4.50%. It was the lowest inflation rate since Jan-2021, as food prices saw their softest increase since Nov-2020 (2.40% vs 7.00% in Aug-2024), due to lower costs of oils and fats, fresh vegetables, and milk, cheese, and eggs. Additionally, prices moderated for both housing and transport. On a monthly basis, consumer prices dropped 1.10% in Sept-2024, marking the first monthly decline in eight months and the steepest fall since Febr-2019, after edging up 0.10% in Aug-2024.
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Mali
- Mali to pay off $332.00mn of internal debt
Mali will pay off 200.00bn CFA francs ($332.00mn) of its internal debt from next week until the end of the year in a bid to ease its debt burden, its economy minister said on state television. The junta-led West African nation’s economy has been rocked by two coups in 2020-2021 and consequent regional sanctions, as well as years of armed conflict with Islamist militants.
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East Africa
Kenya
- KRA to track motorists fuel use with eTIMS link
The Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) is linking its electronic Tax Invoice Management System (eTIMS) to fuel stations to weed out tax cheats and boost revenues by billions of shillings through monitoring motorists’ consumption of diesel and petrol.
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- Fuel stations face sanctions over continued high prices
The Energy and Petroleum ministry has threatened to crack down on filing stations that have continued to sell fuel at high prices, despite lower prices announced earlier in Tuesday.
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- Kenya’s governance progress slows on rule of law, security concerns
Progress in democratic governance in Kenya has slowed over the past five (5) years to 2023, a new report shows, signaling a deterioration in human rights and security conditions for citizens.
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- Lawmakers finally strike deal on contested sugar reforms
Lawmakers have finally ended a months-long impasse over a law aimed at ensuring better regulations of the sugar sector, paving way for reforms in the ailing industry.
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Tanzania
- Tanzania’s Coffee Production Expected To Reach 80,000 Tons and Generate US$ 250 Million
Tanzania’s President Hon. Samia Suluhu Hassan made this statement during her visit to the AVIV Coffee farm in the Peramiho ward in the Ruvuma region in September 2024. The president explained that the significant increase in the Ministry of Agriculture’s budget from TZS 294 billion to TZS 1.25 trillion will enable the recruitment of agricultural extension officers, and the distribution of 20 million quality coffee seedlings hence achieving this goal.
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- Tanzania’s Fertilizer Usage Reaches 800,000 Tons in 2024, Up 122% from 2022
Tanzania’s Ministry of Agriculture through the Tanzania Fertilizer Regulatory Authority (TFRA) has increased Tanzania’s fertilizer usage from 360,000 tons in the 2021/22 period to 800,000 tons of fertilizer in 2024.
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South Africa
South Africa
- Inflation Rate Dips to Lowest Level in 3.5 Years as Transport Costs Ease
Consumer prices in South Africa have plummeted to the lowest level in 3-and-a-half years, dipping below 4.00% year-on-year as transport inflation continues to ease. According to data from Statistics South Africa (StatsSA), the annual inflation rate fell for a fourth consecutive month to 3.80% in Sept-2024, down from 4.40% in Aug-2024. This is the lowest inflation print since Mar-2021, when the rate was 3.20%.
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- South Africa’s Massive Sasol Petrochemical Plant Faces Serious Challenges
The giant Secunda complex of Sasol, South Africa’s biggest chemicals and energy company, provides the fundamental ingredients to South Africa’s petrochemical sector. It produces petrochemicals, plastics, chemicals essential to key industries such as agriculture (fertilisers) and mining (explosives), and 30.00% of the country’s liquid fuels. These value chains are very important to the economy. In 2021, this output accounted for 2.60% of GDP directly and 5.20% indirectly.
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- IMF Gives SA a Shot in the Arm with Upwardly Revised Growth Forecast ahead of MTBPS
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has given finance minister Enoch Godongwana a cushion to deliver optimistic growth forecasts next week during the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) as the lender of last resort revised upwards South Africa’s economic growth projections for 2024 and 2025.
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- SA’s Average Take-Home Pay Exceeds R17,000, Signalling Economic Recovery
South Africa’s average take-home pay reached new heights in Sept-2024, surpassing the R17,000 mark for the first time since the BankservAfrica Take-home Pay Index (BTPI) series began. This milestone, which reflects an average nominal salary of R17 171, marks a turning point for salary earners and could significantly influence consumer behaviour as the festive shopping season approaches.
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- Meeting with President of South Africa Cyril Ramaphosa
Attending the meeting on the Russian side were Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, Deputy Prime Ministers Alexander Novak and Alexei Overchuk, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office and Special Presidential Representative for Financial and Economic Cooperation with the BRICS States and Interaction with the New Development Bank Maxim Oreshkin, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office and Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov.
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Angola
- Statement from White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on President Biden’s Travel to Germany and Angola
President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. will travel to Germany from October 17-18, where he will meet with German leaders to further strengthen the close bond the United States and Germany share as Allies and friends and coordinate on geopolitical priorities, including Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression and events in the Middle East.
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- Angola Plans More Aid to Poor With $400.00 Million World Bank Loan
Angola will extend a cash-transfer program for low-income families as a weaker currency and sky-high inflation continue to drive up living costs in the oil-producing African nation. The so-called Kwenda program will run until 2029, following the recent approval by the World Bank of an additional $400.00 million loan, President João Lourenço said in a speech. The project, the first of its kind in Angola, began in 2020 to support the nation’s poorest during the Covid-19 pandemic.
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- Angola Economy to Surpass Kenya in Latest IMF Forecast
Angola is poised to overtake Kenya as the fourth-largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa by 2025 on the back of improved production and prices of oil, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows.
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- Angola Proposes Integrated Energy Action Plan for Africa
The Angolan Government advocates that the World Bank (WB) develop an Integrated Electricity Action Plan for Africa, over a period of five years (2025-2029), with a view to reducing the energy deficit that the continent faces. According to the minister of Planning and governor of Angola at the World Bank, Victor Hugo Guilherme, “it is particularly urgent that this plan be developed, because current data indicate that more than 600 million Africans do not have access to electricity and 900 million live without clean energy.”
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Zambia
- Tanzania Building Grid Interconnector with Zambia to Help Mitigate Power Crisis
Tanzania is building a grid interconnector with Zambia to help assist in mitigating a drought-driven power crisis, Tanzania’s deputy prime minister said at the Singapore International Energy Week conference this week. “We have some interconnectors with our neighbours, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, and now we are pulling up an interconnector with Zambia, which will help us to assist our neighbour in Zambia who is facing a deadly drought,” said Doto Biteko, who is also the energy minister.
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- Zambia and USA Sign US$491.75 Million Farm-to-Market Grant to Boost Agriculture
The governments of Zambia and the United States of America have signed a landmark US$491.75 million Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Zambia Farm-to-Market Compact to enhance agriculture and agro-processing sectors across the country. The signing ceremony took place in Lusaka, with President Hakainde Hichilema highlighting the importance of the grant in driving Zambia’s economic recovery and transformation agenda.
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- US gives Zambia $458.00mn to complement Lobito project
The United States has approved $458.00 million to assist Zambian farmers to access regional and global markets. The funds, given under the United States Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), complement the US government’s investments in Lobito, a major logistical corridor spanning Angola, Zambia, and Tanzania and linking the Atlantic and Indian Oceans.
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Zimbabwe
- French investors eye Zimbabwe rail project what is the risk of sanctions
A high-profile delegation from 20 leading French companies, led by France’s Ambassador to Zimbabwe, Paul-Bertrand Barets, met President Emmerson Mnangagwa at State House in Harare yesterday, reaffirming France’s commitment to strengthening economic relations with Zimbabwe. The visit, part of a two-day business exploration, focused on identifying investment opportunities across key sectors.
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- Central Bank Says ZWG Backing Gold Reserves Up U.S.$450.00 Million
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) says the quantum of gold backing up the ZWG has increased to US$450.00 million on the back of calls for citizens to be calm ahead of strengthening stability in the coming months. This comes shortly after the local unit experienced the toughest hurdle, losing 43.00% of its value following the central bank’s decision to devalue the ZWG in a bid to close the gap opened up by the parallel market rate last month.
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Central Africa
Cameroon
- Cameroon Aims to Keep Debt at 50.00% of GDP Until 2027 Amid Debt Concerns
Cameroon plans to keep its debt level at no more than 50.00% of its GDP between 2025 and 2027. This goal is outlined in the Medium-Term Economic and Budgetary Programming Document for 2025-2027, prepared by the Ministry of Finance. According to the paper, the country aims to limit new debt to no more than 10.00% of GDP over the next three years. As of Jun-2024, Cameroon’s central government debt already stands at 40.40% of GDP, according to data from the sinking fund. The government’s cautious approach to borrowing is driven by a desire to avoid falling into a cycle of excessive debt.
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- Cameroon Tax Revenue Seen Above CFA4.00 Trillion for the First Time in 2025
Cameroon plans to broaden its non-oil revenue base under its national budget strategy. For the first time, the government expects tax and customs revenues to go beyond CFA4.00 trillion in 2025. The government eyes CFA4,410.70 billion for 2025, CFA4,806.70 billion for 2026, and CFA5,238.80 billion for 2027. To achieve this goal, Cameroon plans to gradually increase the tax burden but maintain it below the African average.
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- Cameroon’s Oil Revenue Set to Decline Starting in 2026
Cameroon’s oil revenue is forecasted to enter a downward trend starting in 2026. Projections for 2025 estimate revenues at CFA828.30 billion, up from CFA801.00 billion expected in 2024. Oil revenue is predicted to fall to CFA612.50 billion in 2026 and drop below CFA600.00 billion in 2027, hitting CFA580.60 billion.
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- Cameroon Plans to Increase Tax Pressure on Businesses Through 2027
Cameroon aims to ramp up tax pressure on businesses until at least 2027. The Economic and Budget Programming Document for 2025-2027 reveals that the tax pressure, which reflects the share of taxes in the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), will rise during this period. Currently, the tax pressure stands at 13.60% of GDP in 2024. It is expected to increase to 14.00% in 2025, 14.20% in 2026, and 14.40% in 2027. This projected rate for 2027 marks the highest tax pressure in six years.
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- Cameroon Targets 460,000 Tons of Rice by 2027, Still Short of Local Demand
Cameroon aims to boost its rice production from 140,710 tons to 460,000 tons by 2027. This ambitious plan, which seeks to nearly triple production in just four years, is part of the country’s Medium-Term Economic and Budgetary Framework 2025-2027, prepared by the Ministry of Finance. However, the document does not specify the concrete steps the government will take to achieve this goal.
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