October 29, 2024/CSL Research
Industry data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) indicates a significant drop in active mobile subscriptions during the third quarter of 2024. The total number of active subscriptions declined by 16 million or 9.36% to 154.90 million in September, down from 170.90 million in June 2024. On a month-on-month basis, active subscriptions fell by 2.88% in September, decreasing from 159.50 million in October 2024 to 154.90 million. The data suggests that the country lost 4,599 subscribers in September alone as major telecom operators saw a decline in the number of subscribers.
MTN, the largest operator by subscriber base, recorded a decline of 5,700 subscribers, reducing its total subscriptions to 78.10 million from 83.77 million in June. Globacom, the second-largest operator by subscriber count in September 2024, lost 1,848 subscribers, bringing its total active lines to 19.15 million from 21.00 million. Airtel, the third-largest operator, shed 6,217 subscribers, reducing its base to 53.75 million from 59.97 million.
Similarly, 9mobile saw a reduction of 2,199 subscribers, with its active lines decreasing to 3.64 million from 5.83 million over the same period. Nigeria’s teledensity which measures active telephone connections per 100 inhabitants fell from 78.84% in June to 71.46% in September 2024. Similarly, broadband penetration fell from 43.92% to 41.56% during the same period.
The recent decline in mobile subscriptions is primarily due to telecom operators enforcing the Nigerian Communications Commission’s (NCC) directive to disconnect SIM cards not linked to valid National Identification Numbers (NIN). With the NCC confirming that the NIN-SIM linkage process is now complete, all active SIMs in Nigeria are now verified and linked to a valid NIN. Looking forward, we anticipate a gradual recovery in mobile subscriptions over the medium to long term as affected users begin reactivating their barred lines. Our positive outlook for the telecom sector remains strong, driven by Nigeria’s growing population, the shift to a digital economy, increasing smartphone adoption, rising digital literacy, and the rapid expansion of 4G and 5G networks. These factors are expected to support sustained growth in the sector over the coming years.
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