November 15, 2024/Futureview Research

Headline Inflation

In October 2024, the headline inflation rate rose to 33.88%, up from 32.70% in September 2024, reflecting an increase of 1.18 percentage points. Year-on-year, the inflation rate was 6.55 percentage points higher than the 27.33% recorded in October 2023, indicating a significant rise compared to the same period last year.

On a month-on-month basis, October’s inflation rate stood at 2.64%, slightly higher by 0.12 percentage points than the 2.52% reported in September 2024. This suggests that the average price level in October increased at a faster pace than in the previous month.

Urban Inflation

Year-on-year, the urban inflation rate in October 2024 was 36.38%, which is 7.09 percentage points higher than the 29.29% recorded in October 2023. Month-on-month, urban inflation stood at 2.75% in October 2024, marking an increase of 0.08 percentage points from the 2.67% reported in September 2024. The twelve-month average for urban inflation was 34.52% in October 2024, up by 9.76 percentage points from 24.76% in October 2023.

Rural Inflation

In October 2024, the rural inflation rate was 31.59% year-on-year, an increase of 6.01 percentage points compared to 25.58% in October 2023. On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation stood at 2.53% in October 2024, up by 0.14 percentage points from 2.39% in September 2024. The twelve-month average rural inflation rate in October 2024 was 30.24%, which is 8.01 percentage points higher than the 22.23% recorded in October 2023.

Food Inflation

The food inflation rate for October 2024 was 39.16% year-on-year, reflecting a 7.64 percentage point increase from the 31.52% recorded in October 2023. This rise in food inflation was driven by higher prices in several categories, including Guinea Corn, Rice, Maize Grains (Bread and Cereals), Yam, Water Yam, Coco Yam (Potatoes, Yam & Other Tubers), Palm Oil, Vegetable Oil (Oils and Fats), and Milo, Lipton, Bournvita (Coffee, Tea & Cocoa).

On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate for October 2024 stood at 2.94%, marking a 0.30% increase from September 2024’s rate of 2.64%. This rise was largely due to higher prices in Palm Oil, Vegetable Oil (Oils & Fats), Mudfish, Croaker, Fresh Fish (Fish), Dried Beef, Goat Meat, Mutton, Skin Meat (Meat), and Bread, Guinea Corn Flour, Plantain Flour, Rice (Bread and Cereals).

Core Inflation (All Items less Farm Produce and Energy)

The Core inflation rate, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products and energy, stood at 28.37% year-on-year in October 2024, reflecting an increase of 5.79 percentage points from the 22.58% recorded in October 2023. The highest price increases were observed in categories such as Bus Journeys within the city, Motorcycle Bus Journeys, Intercity Bus Journeys (Passenger Transport by Road), Rent (Actual and Imputed Rentals for Housing), Meals at Local Restaurants (Accommodation Services), and services like haircuts, women’s hairbrushes, and hairdressing (Hairdressing Salons & Personal Grooming).

On a month-on-month basis, the Core inflation rate for October 2024 was 2.14%, up by 0.04% from the 2.10% recorded in September 2024. The average twelve-month inflation rate for the year ending October 2024 was 26.12%, which is 6.14 percentage points higher than the 19.98% recorded in October 2023.

State Profiles

All Items Inflation

In October 2024, the highest Year-on-Year inflation rates for All Items were recorded in Bauchi (46.68%), Kebbi (40.02%), and Sokoto (39.65%), while Delta (27.85%), Benue (28.22%), and Katsina (29.59%) experienced the lowest increases in headline inflation on a Year-on-Year basis. On a Month-on-Month basis, the highest inflation increases in October 2024 were seen in Kano (3.77%), Bauchi (3.74%), and Adamawa (3.59%), while Kwara (1.27%), Ondo (1.49%), and Lagos (1.91%) had the slowest rise in Month-on-Month inflation.

Food Inflation

In October 2024, the highest Year-on-Year food inflation rates were recorded in Sokoto (52.18%), Edo (46.55%), and Borno (45.85%), while Kwara (31.68%), Kogi (33.30%), and Rivers (33.87%) experienced the slowest increases in food inflation on a Year-on-Year basis. On a Month-on-Month basis, the highest food inflation increases were seen in Adamawa (5.08%), Sokoto (4.86%), and Yobe (4.34%), while Kwara (1.11%), Ondo (1.31%), and Kogi (1.50%) had the slowest rise in food inflation.