November 25, 2024/Cordros Report

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s economy maintained its growth momentum in Q3-24, with real GDP growing by 3.46% y/y (Q2-24: +3.19% y/y). The growth outturn is 50bps and 60bps higher than Cordros’ (+2.96% y/y) and Bloomberg’s median consensus (+2.86% y/y) estimates, respectively.

Based on the GDP breakdown provided, the oil sector grew by 5.17% y/y in Q3-24 (Q2-24: +10.15% y/y | Q3-23: -0.85% y/y). According to the NBS, crude oil production averaged 1.47mb/d in Q3-24, 4.3% y/y higher than in Q2-24 (1.41mb/d). As a result, the oil sector contributed 5.57% to the total GDP (Q2-24: 5.70%) during the review period.

At the same time, the non-oil sector expanded by 3.37% y/y in Q3-24 (Q2-24: +2.80% y/y). Thus, the non-oil sector contributed 94.43% to the total GDP (vs 94.30% in Q2-24).

Analyzing the GDP on a sectoral basis: Agriculture slowed to 1.14% y/y (Q2-24: 1.41% y/y); Industries moderated to 2.18% y/y compared to a growth of 3.53% y/y in Q2-24; while Services grew by 5.19% y/y (Q2-24: +3.79% y/y).

In terms of contribution, Services, Agriculture, and Industries, respectively, accounted for 53.58%, 28.65%, and 17.77% of overall output growth.