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November 26, 2024/Coronation Research

• The national account for Q3 ‘24 from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that GDP grew by +3.46%, an improvement from +3.19% y/y recorded in Q2’ 24. The service sector was a significant driver of this growth, expanding by +5.2% y/y and contributing substantial 53.6% of total GDP in Q3 ’24.
• The oil sector grew by +5.2% y/y in Q3 ’24. Meanwhile on q/q basis, it expanded by 7.5%, this is largely on the back of improved oil production during the quarter. Based on data from the NURPC, average crude oil production in Q3 ’24 was 1.55mbpd compared with 1.47mbpd recorded in the previous quarter. 
• The non-oil economy rose at +3.4% y/y in Q3 ’24, driven primarily by growth in finance and insurance (31.9% y/y), telecoms (6.8% y/y), construction (2.9% y/y), transport (12.2%).
• The agriculture sector grew by +1.1% y/y in Q3 2024, a slowdown compared to the +1.4% y/y recorded in Q2 2024. This moderated growth reflects the adverse impact of flooding, which disrupted production activities in key food-producing states.
• The telecommunications sector demonstrated resilience in Q3 ’24, growing by +6.8% y/y vs +5.2% y/y recorded in Q3 ’24 and accounted for 13.9% of total GDP in Q ‘24.
• The manufacturing sector grew slightly by +0.9% y/y compared with +1.3% y/y recorded in Q2 ‘24. Within the sector, the food and beverages segment grew by +1.76% y/y and accounted for 49% of total manufacturing GDP. Meanwhile, textile, apparel, and footwear segment contracted by -1.9% y/y. The cement segment posted growth of +2.3% y/y.
• Finance and insurance recorded a significant growth of +30.8% y/y in Q2 ’24. This impressive performance is primarily attributed to increased interest income, driven by the prevailing high-interest environment.
• Looking ahead, we see FY 2024 GDP growth at 3.2%.

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