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• According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) maintained it positive trajectory to grow by 3.46% YoY in Q3:2024, up from 3.19% in the previous quarter. The expansion was driven by growth in both the oil (+602bps to 5.17%) and non-oil (+62bps to 3.37%) sector following the bold economic reforms of the Tinubu-led administration.
  

• The Oil sector performance rose by 602bps on an annual basis to 5.17%, following the FGs collaborative efforts with security agencies to combat pipeline vandalism, crude oil theft, illegal refining of crude, insecurity, and other encumbrances in the sector. As such, we observed noteworthy improvement in crude oil production numbers to 1.47mbpd in Q3:2024, up from 1.45mbpd in the corresponding period of the previous year.
  

• Elsewhere, annual growth in the non-oil sector increased by 62bps to 3.37% in Q3:2024, advancing from the 2.75% growth rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2023. This was mostly due to increases in sectors like transport (+4799bps to 12.15% YoY), financial services (+262bps to 30.83% YoY), mining and quarrying (+523bps to 3.27% YoY) and manufacturing (+44bps to 0.92% YoY).
  

• Looking ahead, we expect the positive trend to continue, with a projected full-year growth rate of c.3.20%. This is largely hinged on the FGs reforms, which are expected to drive the economy toward sustainable growth in the medium to long term. Additionally, the commencement of operations at the Dangote refinery is expected to reduce the contraction previously seen in oil refining under the manufacturing sector. We however highlight that there are downside risks to this outlook, including the persistent high inflation, with October inflation surging to 33.88% YoY, the prevailing foreign exchange depreciation, and elevated interest rates as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) remains focused on tightening financial conditions.