December 2, 2024/FBNQuest Research

According to the most recent data from the Nigerian Communication Commission (NCC), active mobile lines increased modestly by 2% month-on-month (MoM) to 157.6 million in October 2024. The growth in October ended the monthly drop in mobile line subscriptions that started in March 2024 due to the NIN-SIM linkage exercise imposed by the sector regulator. As a result, all unlinked SIM cards were disabled, significantly reducing active mobile lines. Similarly, internet connections grew slightly by c.1% m/m to 134.2 million.

• MTN Nigeria (MTNN) retained the largest market share, accounting for about c.51% of total subscriptions, relatively unchanged from September’s market share position.
• Airtel followed closely with a market share of 35%. Globacom came third with a subscriber market share of 12%, while 9Mobile accounted for a paltry market share of 2%.
• In terms of customer additions, MTNN recorded the most significant accretion, with customer gains of about 2.3 million or +2.9% MoM to a total customer base of c.80.4 million.
• Airtel came second with a subscriber addition of about 697k users in October, taking its cumulative customer base to 54.4 million.
• 9mobile suffered the largest attrition, with subscriber losses of -6.7% MoM or 245k users to 3.4 million. Globacom’s customer base declined by -45k lines to 19.1 million.
• The telecommunication sector has remained resilient despite the challenging business environment.
• MTNN’s Q3 2024 financial results show that revenue grew by 35% year-on-year (YoY) to N831bn, supported by solid growth across all business revenue verticals, including data and voice, which grew by 48% YoY and 17% YoY to N280bn and N271bn, respectively.
• However, this improved revenue outturn was eroded by elevated opex, which increased by 54% YoY to N660bn, highlighting the difficult operating business climate caused by ongoing naira volatility, rising energy and leases costs and elevated finance cost due to the CBN’s hawkish monetary policy stance.
• Looking ahead, analysts expect to see a further pick-up in subscriber numbers, as line users re-activate their blocked lines. In addition, network operators’ continuous rollout of customer initiatives is expected to expand the customer base.