December 20, 2024/United Capital Research
Anglophone West Africa (WAEMU)
Nigeria
• Nigeria’s inflation rate rises to 34.6% in November 2024, highest in 28 years
Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 34.60% in November 2024 reflecting a further surge in the costs of goods and services across the country. This is according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This shows that the headline inflation rose 0.72% from 33.88% in October. The last time Nigeria’s inflation rate was this high was 28 years ago in March 1996 when it rose to 41.9%.
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• Nigeria’s exports to ECOWAS hit N1.5tn – NBS
Nigeria’s exports to countries in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) reached N1.54tn in Q3-2024. Nigeria’s main trading partner within the ECOWAS region was Ivory Coast, which imported N662.71bn worth of goods. Togo followed with N574.93bn, and together, the two countries accounted for 97.60% of Nigeria’s total exports to ECOWAS countries in Q3 2024.
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• W’Bank plans $1.65bn loans for Nigeria next year
The World Bank is set to decide on three major loan projects for Nigeria in 2025, totalling $1.65bn, as part of efforts to address critical developmental challenges in the country. The loans, currently in the pipeline, will focus on internally displaced persons, education, and nutrition enhancement. The first project, titled Solutions for the Internally Displaced and Host Communities Project, has a commitment amount of $300.00mn and is scheduled for approval on 08-Apr-2025. The second project, HOPE for Quality Basic Education for All, is expected to receive $553.80mn in financing, its approval is slated for 20-Mar-2025. The third project, Accelerating Nutrition Results in Nigeria 2.0, involves the largest share of the proposed loans, with a commitment of $800.00mn, its approval is slated for 20-Feb-2025.
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• Senate approves new capital requirements for insurance firms
The Senate has approved a new minimum capital requirement for insurance companies in Nigeria as part of reforms to strengthen the industry and address emerging risks. The newly approved requirements peg the minimum capital for non-life insurance businesses at N15.00bn, life insurance businesses at N10.00bn, and reinsurance businesses at N35.00bn. These figures mark a significant increase from the existing requirements of N3.00bn, N2.00bn, and N10.00bn, respectively. The approved bill mandates that the minimum capital be deposited with the CBN.
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• Diaspora remittances rose by 61.00% – CBN
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has revealed that diaspora remittances processed through International Money Transfer Operators reached $4.22bn between January and October 2024. This figure nearly doubles the $2.62bn recorded during the same period in 2023. According to Cardoso, the y/y increase of approximately 61.10% reflects significant growth. He also highlighted remittances increased from $336.00mn in Sep-2024 to $402.00mn in Oct-2024.
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Ghana
• Ghana’s growth projected to gradually increase to 5% beyond 2024 – IMF
Beyond 2024, Ghana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is projected to gradually increase to its potential level of about 5.0 per cent. This is consistent with many forecasts by international research institutions. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Country Report on Ghana, the macroeconomic outlook remains positive. Notwithstanding headwinds from the continued fiscal consolidation and the ongoing dry spell, the Fund said the strong outturn for 2024 quarter 2 real GDP growth points to greater-than-expected underlying growth.
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• We are handing over a strong economy – Finance Minister
Finance Minister Mohammed Amin Adam has outlined key economic gains made under the New Patriotic Party (NPP) government as it prepares to hand over to the administration of President-elect John Dramani Mahama. Speaking at a press briefing in Accra on Tuesday, December 17, 2024, Dr. Amin Adam stated that Ghana’s economy has returned to a path of growth and stability despite the challenges of recent years.
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Francophone West Africa (WAEMU)
Ivory Coast
• Montage Gold Starts Construction at Cote d’Ivoire Project; First Production Expected in Q2 2027
Montage Gold (MAU.V) after trade Wednesday said it has started construction at its Kone project in Cote d’Ivoire, with the first gold production expected in the second quarter of 2027. The engineering, procurement, and construction management contract has been awarded to Lycopodium Minerals Pty, with some tasks being handled by Montage’s construction team.
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• Ivory Coast: MTN Group announces leadership changes
MTN Group is pleased to announce key leadership changes aimed at addressing succession, operational execution, and advancing the Ambition 2025 strategy. Mitwa Ng’ambi, CEO of MTN Cameroon, will move to the same position at MTN Côte d’Ivoire, effective 1 March 2025, as Djibril Ouattara takes early retirement.
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• Ivory Coast expands cocoa processing capacity by 200,000 tonnes
Ivory Coast’s cocoa industry regulator, Le Conseil Café-Cacao, is planning to increase its processing capacity to 200,000 tonnes of cocoa beans per year. This expansion will be driven by construction projects in San Pedro and Abidjan, including a new storage infrastructure that can hold 300,000 tonnes of cocoa beans. The project aims to add value to the country’s production, create more jobs, bolster the regional economy, and reduce dependence on foreign markets.
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• StanChart Among Banks Readying $800 Million Loan for Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast is turning to banks including Standard Chartered Plc for a loan of about $800 million to refinance upcoming maturities, according to people familiar with the matter. Nedbank Group Ltd. and Rand Merchant Bank are also among the lenders taking part in the financing, said the people who asked not be identified because the information is not yet public. Separately, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. is arranging a €400 million ($421 million) loan as part of a debt-for-development swap deal, the people said. Both transactions are likely to be completed in the coming days, they said.
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• IMF approves $808.5m for Côte d’Ivoire’s reforms
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a $808.5 million disbursement for Côte d’Ivoire following the completion of reviews under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The IMF also concluded its 2024 Article IV consultation, highlighting the country’s strong economic performance and reform progress.
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Senegal
• Senegal Weighs Debt Management Review After Financial Audit
Senegal is weighing a liability management plan to extend debt maturities after a state audit showed public finances were worse than previously thought. The exercise will aim to achieve “a more appropriate repayment profile favoring re-profiling with extended maturities,” according to draft budget documents.
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• Senegal Nov. Consumer Prices Fall 1.10% m/m
The Consumer Price Index in Senegal decreased 1.10 percent in November of 2024 over the previous month. Inflation Rate MoM in Senegal averaged 0.17 percent from 2009 until 2024, reaching an all-time high of 3.80 percent in July of 2022 and a record low of -3.06 percent in November of 2009.
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Mali
• Sahel Juntas Unlikely to Reverse Trade Bloc Exit, Analyst Says
West African leaders gave Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso six months to reconsider a withdrawal from the regional economic bloc in a final attempt to avoid its fracture. The junta-led nations were given a grace period until July from their scheduled Jan. 29 exit to allow mediators more time to convince them to stay in the Economic Community of West African States, the bloc’s President Omar Touray said following a summit in Nigeria’s capital Abuja on Sunday.
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• Ganfeng Lithium’s Mali lithium project starts production
Lithium producer Ganfeng Lithium Group Co. Ltd. (1772.HK; 002460.SZ) announced on Monday that official production began at the first phase of its Goulamina spodumene project in Mali, Africa, with a planned annual capacity to produce 506,000 tons of lithium concentrate.
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East Africa
Kenya
• Kenya extends petroleum supply deal with Gulf firms
Kenya has further extended an oil supply deal with three Gulf firms that has helped to relieve pressure on its shilling currency, it said. The deal with Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC.UL) and Emirates National Oil Company was initially agreed in March last year and was extended in September 2023 until this month.
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• Kenya Extends the G-to-G Oil Import Deal
Cabinet has extended the Government-to-Government (G-to-G) oil import deal with three Gulf oil companies that helped ease pressures on the exchange rate. The deal was inked in March 2023 with Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and Emirates National Oil company as a temporary measure to help ease FX pressures. In a bid to stabilize gas prices, the Cabinet approved the importation of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Heavy Fuel Oil, and bitumen through a centrally coordinated bulk procurement system.
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• President Ruto Assents Tax Bills into Law
Earlier this week, President William Ruto signed into law, seven bills including the Tax Laws (Amendment) Bill, the Tax Procedures (Amendment) Bill, the Business Laws (Amendment) Bill, and the Kenya Revenue Authority (Amendment) Bill. The Tax Bills were introduced in the National Assembly by Kikuyu Legislator Kimani Ichung’wa (UDA) and were passed on 4th December; only the Kenya Revenue Authority Bill was passed on 28th November.
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Rwanda
• IMF to release $182 million to Rwanda after latest board reviews
The International Monetary Fund has said it will release $181.7 million in funds to Rwanda after its executive board concluded reviews of the country’s support programmes. The board said in a statement it was releasing the funds after its completion of its fourth review of Rwanda’s Policy Coordination Instrument and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility and second review under the Standby Credit Facility.
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• Rwanda Registers 8.1% Economic Growth in Third Quarter of 2024
Rwanda’s economy grew by 8.1% in the third quarter of 2024, following increases of 9.8% in the second quarter and 9.7% in the first quarter. This brings the average growth rate for the first three quarters of 2024 to 9.2%. The growth was primarily driven by strong performances in the services and industrial sectors, while agriculture showed moderate growth. According to data released by the Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, the GDP at current market prices was estimated at Frw 4,806 billion, up from Frw 4,246 billion in the third quarter if 2023. Contributions to GDP were as follows: services sector (49%), agriculture sector (24%), industry sector (20%), and net direct taxes (7%).
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Tanzania
• IMF board completes reviews that make $204.5 million available to Tanzania
The International Monetary Fund’s Executive Board on Friday completed a fourth review under a Extended Credit Facility loan arrangement with Tanzania, allowing for an immediate disbursement of about $148.6 million, the IMF said. The IMF board also completed a first review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility arrangement with Tanzania, allowing for an immediate disbursement of about $55.9 million, the fund said.
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• Tanzania’s economy set to grow around 6% in 2025, finmin, central bank chief tell IMF
Tanzania’s economy expected to grow by about 6% in 2025 from an estimated 5.4% growth in 2024, its finance minister and central bank governor said in a letter to the International Monetary Fund. Some of the potential risks to the performance in the near term would include intensification of regional conflicts, increased commodity price volatility, a global economic slowdown and natural disasters related to climate change, Finance Minister Mwigulu Nchemba and Central Bank Governor Emmanuel Tutuba said in the Nov.29 letter, made public by the fund.
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South Africa
Angola
• Angola GDP Growth Strongest in Over 9 Years
Angola’s economy grew by 5.5% yoy in Q3 of 2024, marking the strongest expansion since Q1 2015, following a 4.1% rise in the previous period. The activities that contributed the most, in terms of participation, and constituted important factors for the performance of the activity in the GDP in the third quarter of 2024 were extraction and refining of crude oil and natural gas with a weight of 29.3%, trade with 22.5%, agriculture and forestry, other services (7.2%), products and manufacturing industry (8.6%) and fishing with 5.8%. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose by 2.9% in Q3, rebounding from a 0.1% decrease in the previous quarter.
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South Africa
• South Africa’s formal economy contracts in 3Q24 amid job losses
The formal non-agricultural sectors of the economy lost about 130,000 jobs in the third quarter of 2024, a 1.2% drop compared to the previous quarter, according to the latest Quarterly Employment Survey (QES). Many of the jobs shed were in community services, primarily reflecting part-time jobs lost between 2Q24 and 3Q24. Compared to 3Q23, over 290,000 jobs (2.7%) have been lost but over 380,000 jobs have been added since 3Q19. There were 10.6 million workers in the formal economy in 3Q24.
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Namibia
• Namibia Q3 GDP Growth Remains Robust in Q3
The economy of Namibia grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024, following a downwardly revised 2.7% gain in the previous three-month period. This marked the fourteenth consecutive period of expansion, with the largest positive contribution coming from the health sector, which added 0.5 percentage points due to an increase in the number of healthcare personnel. Additionally, wholesale and retail trade contributed 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, the largest negative contributions came from mining and quarrying (-0.8 percentage points) and agriculture and forestry (-0.2 percentage points).
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Zambia
• IMF to provide Zambia with $184 mln as board review completed
The International Monetary Fund said on Monday its executive board completed a review that would provide Zambia with immediate access to about $184 million. The access to the funds brought Zambia’s total disbursement under the 38-month extended credit facility arrangement to about $1.3 billion, the IMF said in a statement.
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• FDI flow up to $580 million
Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows increased to US$580.5 million in the first half of 2024 propelled by a rise in loans from affiliated entities, particularly in the mining and quarrying sectors. The surge in FDI flows went up by US$330.4 from US$250.1 recorded in the same period in 2023. This is according to the 2024 Private Sector Foreign Investment and Investor Perception Survey Report disseminated by the Bank of Zambia (BoZ). The report states that mining and quarrying remained the highest contributor to the FDI stock, accounting for 62.9 percent.
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• PIA calls for more awareness on insurance
THE Pensions and Insurance Authority (PIA) says there is need to intensify awareness and increase understanding of insurance services to raise the uptake in the country. The authority has also noted that the media plays an important role in bridging the knowledge gap. PIA deputy registrar insurance Brian Manchinshi said at the 2024 PIA media workshop that the insurance penetration rate (IPR) has remained below two percent. The insurance industry in the third quarter of 2024 recorded a GWP of K7,094.3 million compared to K6,104 million recorded at the end of the third quarter of 2023. The industry growth rate was attributed to increased fire, life and health insurance uptake.
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Namibia
• Musk’s Starlink ordered to cease operations in Namibia
The Communications Regulatory Authority of Namibia said it has issued a cease-and-desist order to Elon Musk’s satellite internet provider, Starlink, for operating in the country without a license. Starlink, the satellite unit of SpaceX, operates in several African countries but has faced regulatory challenges in others and resistance from state telecom monopolies. Starlink has submitted an application for a telecommunications service license in Namibia. However, the regulator has not issued the license as the application is under review.
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• Namibia votes for new president in most competitive election in decades
The government has urged investors to help the country effectively respond to the power supply emergency and ensure that long-term power sustainability strategies are implemented through public-private partnerships. Further, the government has disclosed that it released K16.9 billion last month to finance developmental programmes and general public service delivery.
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Zambia
• Zambian Inflation Surges as Power Tariffs Increased by 115%
Zambia’s annual inflation rate jumped to its highest level in three years in November as the nation’s worst drought in more than a century, and the kwacha’s continued weakness stoked electricity and food prices. Consumer prices rose 16.5%, compared with 15.7% in October, acting Statistician-General Sheila Mudenda told reporters in Lusaka, the capital.
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Zimbabwe
• Zimbabwe sees 2025 growth rebound after this year’s drought
Zimbabwe’s government expects economic growth to accelerate to 6% in 2025 from 2% this year, helped by improved agricultural output and power generation as the country recovers from a severe drought, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube said. Ncube added in a budget speech that the budget deficit was seen at 0.4% of gross domestic product next year versus 1.4% this year. Like other countries in southern Africa, Zimbabwe’s economy was dealt a blow by an El Nino-induced drought, which depressed food production and hydroelectric power supply.
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• ZiG Currency Turmoil Ebbing Helps Cool Zimbabwean Inflation
Zimbabwe’s monthly inflation rate slowed for the first time in four months as volatility that’s plagued the nation’s gold-backed ZiG currency shows signs of ebbing. Consumer prices rose 11.7% in November compared with 37.2% a month earlier, the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency said.
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• Zimbabwe charts ambitious return to global finance at debt conference
Zimbabwe’s president hosted creditors and finance executives to discuss ambitious goals to clear debt arrears and restructure $12.7 billion in external debt, as the country aims to eventually tap international capital markets for the first time in more than two decades. The Southern African nation’s debt pile accounts for 81% of the gross domestic product, and clearing it will be a tough challenge for a country that has faced numerous financial crises in recent decades, from repeated bouts of hyperinflation to multiple unsuccessful attempts to launch new currency regimes.
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Central Africa
Cameroon
• Cameroon Secures 200,000 ha to Boost Local Agriculture Production
The Cameroonian government has secured 200,000 hectares of land in the Yoko-Lena-Tibati corridor, which stretches between the Central and Adamaoua regions. The goal is to attract investors and boost local agricultural production. The Minister Delegate to the Minister of Economy, Paul Tasong, shared this information during the 2025 state budget defense before the National Assembly’s Finance Committee. He also mentioned that an additional 200,000 hectares are being secured, bringing the total to 400,000 hectares.
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• IFC to Boost Cameroonian SMEs with $60mln Loan to Afriland First Bank
On December 27, the board of the International Finance Corporation (IFC), a branch of the World Bank focused on financing the private sector in emerging countries, will discuss a major loan to Afriland First Bank, one of Cameroon’s leading banks, led by billionaire Paul Kammogne Fokam. According to local authorities, the loan, which could reach $60 million (about CFA 37.5 billion), aims to support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Cameroon, which make up more than 99% of the country’s economy.
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• Cameroon to Boost Palm Seed Production for 5,000 Hectares in 2025
In 2025, the Cameroonian government will assist palm oil producers in growing pre-germinated palm seeds. Prime Minister Joseph Dion Nguté shared this plan on December 1, 2024, during a presentation at the National Assembly on the government’s economic, financial, social, and cultural program for the year. However, he did not provide specific details on how this support would be implemented.
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• BEAC Increases Liquidity Injection to Meet Bank Demand
The Bank of Central African States (BEAC) conducted a new liquidity injection operation for commercial banks on December 17. This time, the central bank offered CFA220 billion, a rise of CFA60 billion compared to the previous operations on December 3 and December 10.
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• Cameroon Waives CFA113.5bn in 2023 to Boost Private Investment
The Cameroonian government forfeited CFA113.5 billion in tax revenue in 2023 to encourage private sector investment projects, according to the Ministry of Finance’s report on tax expenditures. This amount represents 25.2% of the country’s total tax expenditures for the year and 3.1% of the total tax and customs revenue collected in 2023.
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• Cameroon Deploys 15,000 Smart Meters to Tackle Energy Debt
Cameroon’s government is stepping up efforts to improve energy management as part of the Electricity Sector Recovery Plan (Prsec). While presenting the 2025 action plan to Parliament, Gaston Eloundou Essomba, Minister of Water and Energy, announced plans to install nearly 17,000 metering points in government buildings. This will include 15,000 smart meters to monitor electricity usage at low-voltage facilities and public lighting networks.
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• MTN Cameroon to Invest CFA62bn in 2025 After Paying CFA155bn to State
MTN Cameroon, the telecommunications company, announced that it paid CFA155 billion to the state in taxes, fees, and other payments between January and October 2024. During his visit to Cameroon on December 10-11, Ralph Mupita, CEO of MTN Group, shared that over the past ten years, MTN Cameroon has contributed a total of CFA1,062 billion to state revenues.
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