January 8, 2025/CSL Research

Nigeria’s agriculture sector continues to play a pivotal role in the nation’s economy, contributing 28.65% to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as of third quarter 2024 across subsectors like crop production, livestock, forestry and fishing. Agriculture remains a cornerstone of Nigeria’s economy, employing a significant portion of the population and serving as a primary source of livelihood for many rural communities. However, the Agricultural sector has struggled in the last few years, dragged by insecurity concerns, low crop yield, and poor storage, among many factors.

The low output from the sector has resulted in food scarcity and rising food prices, which have exacerbated affordability challenges in Nigeria, particularly affecting a significant portion of the population living below the poverty line. According to FAO projections, approximately 33.0 million Nigerians are likely to experience acute food insecurity in 2025, with the number of individuals requiring emergency assistance expected to nearly double. Nigeria must improve agricultural productivity to boost the Agricultural GDP and reduce food prices. Most importantly, security-related issues and crop yield must be tackled.

We estimate output in the sector to remain modest, with a projected growth of 1.35% in 2025, compared to an expected 1.02% in 2024. We maintain our belief that to enhance productivity in the agriculture sector, Nigeria must address the structural and institutional obstacles that have hampered its development. Addressing these obstacles requires a multifaceted approach that involves coordinated efforts by all stakeholders.

Enhancing access to finance, improving infrastructure, implementing supportive policies, investing in education, and training, and promoting sustainable agricultural practices are crucial steps toward transforming the Nigerian agricultural sector into a more productive and resilient component of the economy.

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