February 7, 2025/CSL Research
Based on data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product per capita declined to US$835.49 in 2025 from US$877.07 in 2024, indicating a 4.74% dip. The IMF data shows a sustained downtrend since 2014, when the GDP per capita stood at a high of US$3,223. The IMF, however, projects a rise in 2026 and 2027, with the GDP per capita expected to cross the US$1,000 mark in 2028 at US$1,040.
The data also revealed that Nigeria and most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are within the US$500 to US$2,500 GDP per capita band, with some below US$500. GDP per capita represents the total value at current prices of final goods and services produced within a country during a specified time divided by the average population for the same year. GDP per capita measures the average standard of living of a country’s citizens.
Nigeria’s GDP per capita has experienced significant volatility, reflecting the nation’s complex and often turbulent economic landscape. Inadequate investment in infrastructure and human capital has intermittently suppressed economic growth and living standards. While rising oil prices in certain years provided temporary boosts—spurring revenue growth and lifting GDP per capita—these gains were largely confined to the oil sector, leaving other industries lagging. This overreliance on oil made the economy highly vulnerable to external shocks and price fluctuations. Additionally, political uncertainty and corruption have further impeded sustainable long-term growth, limiting broad-based economic development.
Nigeria is currently undergoing a rebasing of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), updating the base year from 2010 to 2019. This process aims to provide a more accurate representation of the nation’s economic structure by incorporating emerging sectors such as the digital economy, modular refineries, and pension fund administration. Historically, GDP rebasing exercises have led to significant increases in the reported size of Nigeria’s economy.
For instance, the 2014 rebasing resulted in an 89% increase in GDP, elevating Nigeria to Africa’s largest economy at that time. While the exact impact of the current rebasing is yet to be fully determined, it is anticipated that the GDP per capita will rise, suggesting an improved economic standing. However, it’s important to note that such statistical adjustments may not immediately translate to tangible improvements in the standard of living for the average Nigerian.
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