February 14, 2025/United Capital Research
Anglophone West Africa (WAEMU)
Nigeria
- CBN shifts MPC meeting to February 19, 20
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has rescheduled the 299th Monetary Policy Committee meeting earlier slated for 17-Feb and 18-Feb 2025 to now be held on 19-Feb and 20-Feb 2025.
- Nigeria to benefit from $4.4bn agro-industrial investment
The President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Akinwumi Adesina, has revealed that Nigeria will gain significantly from a $4.40bn investment aimed at expanding the Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. The AfDB has already committed over $3.00bn to SAPZ projects across 11 African countries. In Nigeria, the initial goal was to raise $750.00mn for the initiative, but this target was significantly exceeded, with the figure climbing to $2.20bn, which later increased to $4.40bn.
- Nigeria’s non-oil exports reach $5.45bn in 2024
The Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) has announced that Nigeria’s trade volume in 2024 reached 7.2 metric tons, with a 20.70% increase in value, totaling $5.45bn and an expansion to 126 countries, signaling Nigeria’s export progress.
- $50m IFC investment shows global confidence
The International Finance Corporation (IFC) has recently made a $50.00mn equity investment in the Lagos Free Trade Zone. This investment falls under the Tolaram initiative to support the development and expansion of Nigeria’s first deep-sea port-based, private special economic zone.
- House of Reps passes four tax reform bills for second reading
The House of Representatives has passed for second reading of the four Tax Reform Bills submitted to the National Assembly by President Bola Tinubu. These bills—the Nigeria Tax Bill 2024, the Tax Administration Bill, the Nigeria Revenue Service Establishment Bill, and the Joint Revenue Board Establishment Bill—seek to overhaul Nigeria’s tax system, ensuring efficiency, transparency, and improved revenue collection.
- Nigeria’s oil output rises by 4% to 1.737m bpd
Nigeria’s oil output, including condensate, increased m/m by 4.00% to 1.737 million bpd in Jan-2025, from 1.667 million bpd recorded in the preceding month of Dec-2024. However, on a y/y basis, the nation’s oil output, including condensate, increased by 5.70% to 1.737 million bpd in Jan-2025, from 1.643 million bpd in Jan-2024, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
Ghana
- Ghana takes steps to bridge $156 million funding gap after USAID freeze
Ghana’s President John Dramani Mahama has directed finance minister Cassiel Ato Forson to take urgent steps to bridge $156 million funding gap following the aid freeze from USAID, according to a statement from the president’s office.
- Ghana’s economy to expand by 4.2 per cent in 2025 despite mounting risks
Ghana’s economy is expected to expand by 4.2% in 2025 and 4.8% in 2026, according to the World Bank’s January 2025 Global Economic Prospects report. However, these figures remain below the pre-COVID-19 pandemic average of 5%, reflecting persistent economic challenges. The World Bank has also revised Ghana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projection for 2024 downward to 4.0% from its initial 4.8% estimate in the October 2024 Africa Pulse Report which aligns with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) forecast.
Francophone West Africa
Ivory Coast
- Dry Season In Ivory Coast Triggers Cocoa Shortage Fears – Farmers.
A lack of rain in most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions could delay the start of the April to September mid-crop, potentially leading to a shortage of beans, farmers said on Monday. The world’s top cocoa producer is in the dry season that runs from mid-November to March when rains are scarce and poor, and farmers say it is very hot compared to last year. Farmers said they can no longer expect beans of good quality at the start of the mid-crop season in April as the soil moisture content was weak and the heat was drying leaves on trees.
- China paid in beans for building Ivory Coast’s biggest cocoa plant.
A Chinese contractor has completed work on the largest cocoa factory and warehouse in the Ivory Coast. The 21ha plant is the second that China Light Industry Nanning Design Engineering has built in the country. The $200m cost has been paid for by the government of China, and will be repaid in cocoa beans. The completed unit is in the PK24 industrial park on the outskirts of Abidjan, Ivory Coast’s economic capital; the other is in the port of San Pedro.
- Côte d’Ivoire Cuts Electricity Supply to Liberia By 85 Percent.
Liberians are bracing for severe power outages as the Liberia Electricity Corporation (LEC) announces a drastic reduction in electricity supply due to an emergency directive from its primary power supplier, Compagnie Ivoirienne d’Électricité (CIE) of Côte d’Ivoire.
- Ex-banker Thiam renounces French citizenship to run in Ivory Coast election Former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam has renounced his French citizenship to meet eligibility conditions for Ivory Coast’s presidential election in October, as his party mulls who to put forward as its nominee. In 2023, Thiam was elected leader of PDCI, one of Ivory Coast’s main opposition parties, making him a likely candidate, but last October former trade minister Jean-Louis Billon said he would also seek the nomination.
Cameroon
- Oriole Resources’ shares plunge despite positive Cameroon gold findings.
AIM-listed gold explorer Oriole Resources’ shares fell 19% to £0.21 following the announcement of gold findings at its Bibemi and Mbe projects in Cameroon. The share price recovered slightly to £0.23 on February 5, two days after the announcement, but remains below the pre-announcement level of £0.26. At the Bibemi project, a total of 6,560 metres was drilled across 54 holes at the Bakassi Zone 1 prospect. Significant gold intersections include 2.9 metres at 1.41 grams per tonne (g/t) and 1 metre at 3.78 g/t, reinforcing the extension of the quartz shear vein system. Assay results from four additional holes are still pending.
East Africa
Kenya
- Kenya’s cabinet approves $33 billion spending for 2025/26 fiscal year
Kenya’s cabinet has approved planned spending of 4.2 trillion shillings ($32.65 billion) for the 2025/26 fiscal year (July-June), a statement from President William Ruto’s office said. The proposed spending for 2025/26 is detailed in the finance ministry’s Budget Policy Statement. The cabinet also ratified an extra 199.9 billion shillings for expenditure in the 2024/25 budget. The budget plans will now be submitted to parliament for approval, the President’s office said.
- Banks enjoy 12% rise in profits despite decline in lending
Kenya’s commercial banks have recorded an impressive 11.58% rise in pre-tax profits, totaling $1.22bn for the first eight months of 2024, overcoming a challenging environment marked by rising loan defaults and reduced borrowing demand. D ata from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) shows that profits have increased from $1.09bn during the same period last year, signalling the resilience of the banking sector.
- Treasury seeks Sh200bn budget top-up amid weak tax collections
The National Treasury is set to seek the approval of MPs to lift the budget for the fiscal year to June by Sh199.9 billion on the back of underperformance in tax collections, pointing to the likelihood of increased borrowing to cover the widening funding gap. The Cabinet approved the proposed second supplementary budget estimates covering the 2024/25 fiscal year with the top-up set to lift overall expenditure and net lending for the period past the Sh4 trillion mark, up from Sh3.88 trillion currently.
- Imports to raise current account deficit by Sh135bn
Kenya’s current account deficit is expected to widen by $1.04 billion (Sh124.9 billion) in 2025 due to higher imports, but will remain below the projected medium-term average of four percent of GDP, the central bank has said. The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) said last week that the deficit was estimated at $4.54 billion (Sh587 billion) at the end of 2024, equivalent to 3.7 percent of GP but will rise to $5.59 billion (Sh721.9 billion) or 3.8 percent of GDP.
Mozambique
- Business confidence index improves, still negative
The index that measures business confidence in Mozambique improved in January, but remains in negative territory since the post-election protests, which resulted in hundreds of deaths and a downturn in the economy in the fourth quarter of 2024. The PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index improved to 47.5 points in January, up from 46.4 in December, the lowest month since August 2020. However, it is still in negative territory as values below 50 indicate pessimism among entrepreneurs and managers regarding the evolution of business activity in the country in which they operate.
Rwanda
- Rwanda central bank holds key rate despite pickup in inflation
Rwanda’s central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 6.5% for the second monetary policy meeting in a row, saying that despite a recent pickup in inflation it expected it to remain within its target band. Annual inflation rose to 7.4% in January, approaching the top of the National Bank of Rwanda’s 2%-8% target range. The rise in inflation in recent months was caused by unfavourable weather conditions that meant a delay in the harvest, compared to a bumper harvest a year earlier, Governor John Rwangombwa told a press conference.
- Rwanda’s inflation is 7.4 percent year on year in January 2025
Rwanda’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), main gauge of inflation increased by 7.4 percent year on year in January 2025 up from 6.8 percent in December 2024. In January 2025, ‘Food and non-alcoholic beverages’ increased by 7.2 percent on annual basis and it decreased by 0.1 percent on monthly basis. ‘Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels’ increased by 4 percent on annual basis and it was stable on monthly basis. Transport increased by 18.5 percent on annual basis and it increased by 0.8 percent on monthly basis. ‘Restaurants and Hotels’ increased by 9.5 percent on annual basis and it increased by 3.4 percent on monthly basis.
- Govt Aims to Raise Tax-to-GDP Ratio to 19% By 2029
The government of Rwanda has said that it targets to increase its tax to gross domestic product (GDP)ratio from the current 14.6 per cent to 19 per cent by 2029, as the country seeks to accelerate socio-economic development. This was revealed by the Minister of Finance and Economic Planning, Yusuf Murangwa, as the government announced new tax reforms that were approved by the cabinet on Monday, February 10.
Tanzania
- Tanzania hopes to conclude talks for LNG project by June
Tanzania is discussing tax incentives with investors in a stalled project to construct a $42 billion liquefied natural gas plant in the country, Energy Minister Doto Biteko said, adding the talks could be completed by June. Equinor and Shell are joint operators of the country’s mega gas project, while Exxon Mobil, Pavilion Energy, Medco Energi and Tanzania’s national oil company TPDC are partners.
- Tanzania’s insurance market grows by 19.11 percent
Tanzania’s insurance market recorded a 19.11 percent growth last year, driven by the entry of new companies and an expanding range of insurance solutions, according to industry stakeholders. An unaudited report compiled by the Association of Tanzania Insurers (ATI) indicates that Gross Premium Written (GPW) rose to Sh1.47 trillion in 2024, up from Sh1.24 trillion the previous year. The increase was attributed to multiple factors, including market expansion and the introduction of diverse insurance products.
- Tanzania preparing regulations to ban foreign currency for domestic transactions
The Bank of Tanzania (BoT), in partnership with the Ministry of Finance, is working on new regulations to enforce a ban on using foreign currencies for domestic transactions. This follows amendments made to the Bank of Tanzania Act under Section 26(2), which now prohibits the use of foreign currency for transactions within the country.
Uganda
- WHO releases $2 million to support Uganda’s Ebola outbreak response
World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said he was releasing an additional $2 million to support Uganda’s response to its Ebola outbreak, which has killed one person and infected at least eight others.
- Uganda says it will miss 2025 target to begin oil production
Uganda will not begin oil production this year, a government spokesperson said, missing a long-standing target to begin extracting crude from its western fields this year. “Due to unforeseen challenges, we are unable to meet the above target,” Patricia Litho, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development said. She did not give a reason for the country’s failure to meet the 2025 target and said a new date for production to begin has not yet been announced. Uganda discovered commercial reserves of petroleum in the Albertine rift basin near its border with the Democratic Republic of Congo nearly two decades ago.
- Uganda names new central bank governor and deputy
Uganda has named a new central bank governor and deputy governor, President Yoweri Museveni’s office said. Michael Atingi-Ego has been appointed as governor while Augustus Nuwagaba will be his deputy, it said in a statement. Atingi-Ego previously worked for the central bank in a senior position, then left and returned in 2020 as deputy governor. He has been the acting head of the bank since the death in 2022 of long-serving governor Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile.
Southern Africa
South Africa
- South Africa: Capex needs to triple to lift growth, Nedbank survey shows
The value of announced capital projects jumped last year, led by government and state-owned enterprises, and this bodes well for a turnaround in SA’s fixed investment spending in coming years, Nedbank’s capital expenditure survey suggests. But speakers at the survey’s launch said investment spending needed to be doubled or tripled to provide a meaningful boost to economic growth…
- South Africa: Government rules out adopting fiscal rule ahead of budget
The government has ruled out the adoption of a fiscal anchor, which would put a binding constraint on fiscal policy and require the Treasury to adopt a specific policy approach. Minister in the presidency for planning, monitoring & evaluation Maropene Ramokgopa said the concern was that a fiscal anchor would inhibit the Treasury from executing some of its responsibilities.
- Godongwana has little room to move in the budget, say economists
Economists anticipate a conservative 2025 budget from finance minister Enoch Godongwana next week, with no major tax hikes beyond indirect levies and only limited support for struggling state-owned enterprises Transnet and Eskom. The economists polled by Business Day said they hope for realistic revenue forecasts, a stronger drive to reduce debt, pro-growth policies and a clear, long-term strategy for struggling state-owned entities (SOEs) — instead of another round of short-term relief.
- South Africa: Agriculture set for recovery despite downbeat crops data
SA’s 2023/24 summer crop figures paint a tough picture for the agriculture sector, but an agriculture expert is confident that this year will be one of recovery. The crop estimates committee (CEC) on Thursday released its final summer crop production figures for the 2023/24 season, showing only modest improvements from previous estimates while confirming the damage inflicted by last year’s midsummer drought.
- South Africa: Precious metals weigh on mining output and sales
A dip in precious metals production weighed on SA’s mining output at the end of last year, though strong performances from the country’s coal and manganese sectors provided some relief. SA’s total mining production fell 2.4% year on year in December a 0.9% decline in November, according to Stats SA’s latest data.
- South Africa’s Business confidence ends 2024 strongly on GNU optimism
With Eskom’s more stable electricity supply, the outcome of last year’s election continues to drive optimism in the private sector with business owners optimistic the government of national unity (GNU) can create the stability needed to reignite long-term investment in the country. Business confidence has improved since general elections in May 2024 that resulted in the formation of the GNU as reflected in the SA Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s (Sacci’s) latest business confidence index (BCI).
- SA business activity contracts sharply in January
SA’s private sector started 2025 on weak footing, as business conditions deteriorated sharply in January, according to the latest S&P Global SA purchasing managers’ index (PMI). The PMI, which tracks business conditions in the private sector, fell to 47.4, down from 49.9 in December, marking its lowest level since July 2021.
- SA Debt index shows 42% plunge in consumer purchasing power
SA consumers are grappling with reduced purchasing power as they navigate financial pressures. According to DebtBusters’ fourth-quarter 2024 debt index, consumers who sought debt counselling in the fourth quarter had, on average, 42% less purchasing power than they did in 2016, and higher debt service burden.
Zimbabwe
- RBZ directive triggers market jitters
A decision by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) to force all listed companies to report their financial statements in Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) has triggered widespread concern in the business and financial sectors. The directive, which follows consultations with the Public Accountants and Auditors Board (PAAB), is intended to reinforce ZiG’s role in the economy and restore confidence in the local currency. However, experts warn that the move could destabilize financial reporting, create compliance risks, distort asset valuations, and undermine investor confidence..
- RBZ ramps up fight against inflation, pledges financial stability
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) has reaffirmed its commitment to a tight monetary stance, maintaining the bank policy rate at 35% and statutory reserve ratios at 30% and 15% for current account and savings as well as time deposits respectively, across both ZiG and US$ holdings. This position outlined in the 2025 Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) released last week, underscores the central bank’s resolve to curb inflation and stabilise the financial system.
- Zimbabwe Govt restructures US$1bn Treasury Bills
The government is facing significant challenges in repaying its maturing US dollar-denominated Treasury Bills (TBs) and is now moving to restructure nearly US$1bn outstanding securities, Business Times can report. For years, the government has relied on commercial paper to finance its programs. However, its inability to meet TB obligations stems from constrained financial resources, exacerbated by Zimbabwe’s legacy debt.
- Monetary policy fails to address core economic challenges: Economists
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ)’s 2025 Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), presented by Governor Dr. John Mushayavanhu, has come under heavy criticism from economists, who argue that it fails to address the country’s fundamental economic challenges. As businesses struggle with currency instability, exchange rate volatility, and widespread closures, analysts say the new policies provide little relief and instead impose additional financial strain.
- RBZ tightens grip on forex as exporters surrender more earnings
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) has slashed the foreign currency retention threshold for exporters from 75% to 70% as part of broader efforts to strengthen the domestic currency and bolster economic stability.
Zambia
- Zambia raises rates amid persistently high inflation
The Bank of Zambia today (February 12) raised its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 14.5%. This decision came amid persistently high inflation and followed a 50bp hike in November. The central bank has now raised the policy rate by a total of 550bp since it began tightening policy in February 2023.
- Zambia: ZESCO Appoints Eng. Justin C. Loongo as New Managing Director
Zambia’s power utility company, Zesco Limited, has appointed Eng. Justin C. Loongo as its new Managing Director, effective February 7, 2025. Eng. Loongo, who has been acting in the role since November 2024, replaces Victor Mapani.
- Sino Great Chemical breaks ground on state-of-the-art phosphate plant in Zambia
In a significant milestone for Zambia’s industrial and agricultural development, Sino Great Chemical Limited has launched the groundbreaking of a state-of-the-art phosphate plant in Lusaka West. The plant, which marks a major investment in Zambia’s economy, is expected to play a crucial role in boosting the country’s agricultural productivity and industrial growth.
Central Africa
Angola
- Angola and France to sign €430m in contracts during Lourenço state visit
French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting Angolan President Joao Lourenço for a two-day state visit starting Thursday to strengthen political, cultural, and economic ties.
- Unemployment rate falls to 30.8pct in 2024 Q3
Angola’s unemployment rate fell to 30.8% in the third quarter of 2024, down 4.5% compared with the previous three months, although it grew slightly in the 15-24 age group, INE announced on Wednesday. The data is contained in the rapid information sheet of the Angolan Employment Survey (IEA), released today by the National Statistics Institute (INE).
- Angola Reiterates Commitment to Gradual Elimination of Fuel Subsidies
The Angolan government remains committed to the gradual elimination of fuel subsidies, although it does not intend to eliminate them completely by 2025, Minister of State for Economic Coordination José de Lima Massano said Wednesday in Davos, Switzerland. The minister, who is representing Angolan President João Lourenço at the 55th Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in the Swiss Confederation, spoke in an interview with the financial information agency Bloomberg.
