February 25, 2025/CSL Research
Data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) shows a significant year-on-year (y/y) decline in active mobile subscriptions for January 2025. The total number of active subscriptions fell by 49.08 million (22.47%), dropping from 218.40 million in January 2024 to 169.32 million in January 2025.
However, on a month-on-month basis, subscriptions saw a modest recovery, increasing by 2.16% from 164.93 million in December 2024 to 169.32 million in January 2025. This growth, adding 4.31 million new subscribers in January, suggests that telecom companies are steadily recovering from the impact of the NIN-SIM policy on mobile subscriber numbers.
MTN, the largest operator by subscriber base, saw a month-on-month increase of 2.94 million subscribers, bringing its total to 87.55 million in January 2025, up from 84.61 million in December 2024. Airtel, the second-largest operator by subscriber count, gained 1.05 million subscribers, bringing its total active lines to 57.67 million from 56.62 million the previous month. Globacom, the third-largest operator, saw a modest rise, gaining 407,831 subscribers, which brought its total to 20.55 million from 20.14 million in December 2024. 9mobile’s subscriber numbers remained unchanged at 3.28 million, the same figure as the previous month. Nigeria’s teledensity, which measures active telephone connections per 100 inhabitants, increased from 76.08% in December to 78.10% in January 2025. Broadband penetration also rose marginally to 45.61% from 44.43% during the same period.
We anticipate a strong recovery in mobile subscriptions in the coming months as previously barred users reactivate their lines. Nigeria’s large population will be a key driver of this growth, especially given the significant number of people who still lack access to telecom services. Overall, our outlook for Nigeria’s telecommunications sector in 2025 remains highly optimistic. Key factors supporting this growth include the rebound in mobile subscriptions, tariff adjustments, the expansion of 4G and 5G networks, rising broadband penetration, and the ongoing shift from analog to digital services.
Click here to download full report: CSL Nigeria Daily – 25 February 2025 – Telecoms .pdf
