February 26, 2025/InvestmentOne Report
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- Nigeria’s economy expanded at 3.84% YoY during Q4:2024, reaching its highest quarterly growth rate in three years. This performance exceeded the 3.46% seen in Q3:2024 and showed improvement from the same quarter in 2023. Across the full year, Nigeria’s GDP grew by an average of 3.40% in 2024, climbing from 2.74% in 2023, reflecting a gradual but consistent economic recovery.
- According to official estimates, Nigeria’s oil sector experienced modest growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, with crude oil production averaging 1.54MMbpd. However, the sector’s contribution to the nation’s overall GDP remained minimal as it contributed 1.48% YoY. While Q4:2024 production of 1.54MMbpd was slightly higher than the 1.47MMbpd produced in Q3:2024, it remained slightly below the 1.56MMbpd average of Q4:2023.
- The non-oil economy was the main driver of growth in Q4 2024. Non-oil GDP grew by 3.96% YoY during the quarter, an acceleration compared to 3.07% in Q4 of the previous year. Specifically, the leading contributors to non-oil growth in Q4 were, Transportation and storage services (+4,761bps to 18.61%), Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation industry (+151bps to 8.95%), Accommodation and food services (+80bps to 4.08%), and Education services (+46bps to 2.06%).
- The outlook for Nigeria’s economy in 2025 is cautiously optimistic, contingent on the continuation of current policies and improvements in key macro indicators. Major international forecasts project that Nigeria will sustain growth in the range of 3%–4% in 2025. The IMF forecasts a 3.20% GDP growth for the year. The positive impacts of the 2023–2024 reforms are likely to become more pronounced.
