March 13, 2025/CSL Research
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) recently released its February 2025 Oil Production Status Report, revealing a 4.8% month-on-month (m/m) decline in Nigeria’s crude oil production (excluding condensates). Output fell to 1.47 million barrels per day (mbpd), marking a drop of 73,691 barrels per day (bpd) from the 1.54 mbpd recorded in January 2025.
Notably, January’s production excluding condensates had exceeded the 1.5 mbpd quota set for Nigeria by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Allied Members (OPEC+). Similarly, total oil production (including condensates) declined from 1.74 mbpd in January 2025—comprising 198,783 bpd of condensates—to 1.67 mbpd in February, with condensates accounting for 206,948 bpd. During the month, the lowest daily production was 1.60 mbpd, while peak production reached 1.76 mbpd.
Oil production (crude + condensates) varied across terminals in February 2025 compared to the previous month. The Forcados terminal recorded the highest output, producing 7.75 million barrels, though lower than the 8.86 million barrels produced in January. It was followed by the Bonny terminal, which produced 6.3 million barrels, down from 8.1 million barrels in January. Among the top five producing terminals in February, Qua Iboe recorded 4.28 million barrels, Escravos produced 3.88 million barrels, and Bonga output stood at 3.69 million barrels. These figures were lower than their respective January production volumes of 4.64 million barrels, 4.48 million barrels, and 4.02 million barrels.
Nigeria has struggled to meet its OPEC+ crude oil production quotas over the years due to crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, large-scale illegal bunkering, poor infrastructure, aging oil fields, and operational inefficiencies. These challenges, combined with OPEC+’s recent agreement to gradually increase oil production starting April 1, 2025, and the volatility of the global oil market places the country in a precarious fiscal position.
With domestic crude oil production significantly below budgeted target and global crude oil prices currently trading at around US$70 per barrel—also below the 2025 budget benchmark of US$75 per barrel—Nigeria faces significant revenue losses and declining foreign exchange earnings. However, the federal government expects production levels to improve in the near term, potentially surpassing the 2025 budget target of 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd).
Click here to download full report: CSL Nigeria Daily – 13 March 2025 – Crude Oil.pdf
