March 21, 2025/United Capital Update

Anglophone West Africa
Nigeria 

• Nigeria’s inflation rate falls to 23.18% in February 2025

Nigeria’s inflation rate dropped for the second consecutive month to 23.18% in Feb-2025 from 24.48% recorded in January. Despite this overall decline in inflation, three states – Edo, Enugu, and Sokoto – recorded inflation rates exceeding 30.00%.
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• Nigeria’s debt service drops to $276 million in February 2025

According to the CBN’s latest data on external sector payments, Nigeria’s total debt service payments dropped significantly from $540.00mn in Jan-2025 to $276.00mn in Feb-2025. This decline comes amid ongoing efforts by the federal government to restructure its debt portfolio, improve dollar liquidity, and ease pressure on the foreign exchange market. 
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• FAAC disburses N15.26 trillion to FG, states, and LGAs in 2024

The Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) has revealed that the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursed an unprecedented N15.26tn to the federal, state, and local governments in 2024. This marks a historic high in revenue distribution and a 43.00% increase compared to previous years.
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• Nigerian House of Reps passes tax reform bills

The Nigerian House of Representatives has passed four key tax reform bills aimed at propelling Nigeria’s economy, completing their third reading on Tuesday following detailed deliberations. These reforms are the Nigerian Tax Administration Bill, Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, Joint Revenue Board Bill, and Nigeria Tax Bill.
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• Dangote refinery suspends petrol supply in naira

Dangote refinery has officially announced that it is halting the supply of petroleum products in naira, this comes following reports that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) might have stopped the sale of crude in naira to the Dangote refinery. The group has however stated that as soon as they receive an allocation of naira-denominated crude cargoes from NNPC they will promptly resume petroleum product sales in naira.
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Ghana

• Fuel prices drop for third consecutive time

Consumers of petroleum products can expect some relief as fuel prices at the pumps record a marginal decline for the third consecutive time. This development comes two days into the commencement of the second pricing window for March. Total Energies has led the latest adjustment, lowering the price of both petrol and diesel from GHS15.79 per liter in the first pricing window of March to GHS15.49 per litre for the second pricing window of March.
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• T-bill yields drop further as govt records slight oversubscription

The government has once again surpassed its Treasury bill target, raising GHS 514 million more than it targeted. The latest auction results from the Bank of Ghana show that while the target was GHS 8.26 billion, total bids reached GHS 8.77 billion. This represents an oversubscription of 6.22 percent. All GHS 6.2 billion tendered for the 91-day Treasury bill was accepted. The 182-day bill attracted GHS 1.83 billion in bids, with GHS 1.80 billion accepted. Meanwhile, the 364-day bill saw GHS 1.2 billion tendered, but only GHS 746 million was accepted.
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Francophone West Africa (WAEMU)
Senegal

• Senegal Inflation Cools in February

The annual inflation rate in Senegal eased to 0.6% in February 2025 from January’s eight-month high of 1.8%. The slowdown was mainly due to softer price increases for food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing and utilities, health, and restaurants and hotels. Meanwhile, prices rose for transport, alcoholic beverages, and tobacco while rebounded for personal care, social security, and miscellaneous goods. On a monthly basis, consumer prices decreased by 0.6% in February, reversing a 1.1% rise in the previous month.
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• Senegal Raises Over $60M Amid Budget Turbulence

Senegal has successfully raised 38.5 billion CFA francs ($64 million) on the West African Monetary Union (WAMU) sovereign debt market, authorities announced on Monday. The issuance, conducted through a mix of Treasury Bills and Bonds (BAT and OAT), featured maturities of 364 days, 3 years, and 5 years.
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Ivory Coast

• Ivory Coast’s mid-crop cocoa output expected to drop around 40% due to long drought, exporters say

Ivory Coast’s cocoa mid-crop output is expected to drop around 40% this season after an unusually long dry season and limited, patchy rainfall hit crops in the main production regions, exporters and pod counters said. Farmers have said rains were scattered and irregular in the West African country and proper downpours were needed to boost production and ensure bean quality during the mid-crop season, which begins April 1 and ends on September 30.
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Niger

• Niger orders three Chinese oil officials out of country, sources say

Niger’s junta has ordered three Chinese officials working in the oil sector to leave the country, two sources familiar with the decision told Reuters on Friday, in the latest move by regional military governments to assert greater control over resources. The request for the departure of the Niger-based directors of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the West African Oil Pipeline Company (WAPCo) and the joint venture oil refinery SORAZ was communicated Wednesday, the sources said.
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East Africa
Kenya

• Kenya shilling remains stable due to low dollar demand

The Kenyan shilling held steady on Thursday compared with the previous session, supported by subdued dollar demand from importers, traders said. Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 129.25/129.45, same level as Wednesday’s close.
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• Kenya 10-Year Government Bond Yield

Kenya 10Y Bond Yield was 13.48 percent on Thursday March 20, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Historically, the Kenya 10-Year Government Bond Yield reached an all time high of 19.40 in April of 2024.
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• Kenya eyes $69.5mln of dairy product exports in 2025

According to KDB, Kenya produced 5.76 billion litres of milk in 2024, out of which 4.8 billion litres was sold without being processed. Nairobi: Kenya announced on Monday that it aims to increase its dairy exports to nine billion Kenyan shillings (about 69.5 million US dollars) in 2025, up from 7.3 billion Kenyan shillings in 2023, as the country strengthens its position in the global dairy market.
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Rwanda

• Rwanda GDP Grows 8% in Q4, 8.9% in 2024

Rwanda’s economy grew by 8.0% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, slightly down from the 8.1% expansion recorded in the previous quarter. For the full year, GDP advanced by 8.9%, accelerating from 8.2% in the previous two years, driven by strong agricultural yields and robust growth in the industrial and service sectors.
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South Africa
South Africa

• South Africa central bank keeps key rates steady

South Africa’s central bank on Thursday made a decision to keep its main lending rate steady at 7.50%, saying that a cautious policy approach was needed given global and domestic uncertainties.
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• South African rand slips ahead of interest rate decision

South Africa’s rand weakened early on Thursday ahead of a much anticipated interest rate decision by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB).
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• South African retail sales rise 7.0% year on year in January

South African retail sales rose 7.0% year on year in January after rising by a revised 3.2% in December, Statistics South Africa figures showed on Wednesday. Retail sales rose 1.2% month on month in January.
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Namibia

• Namibia’s agronomy sector suffers 74.9% decline in production

Namibia’s agronomy sector faced a 74.9% decline in production levels during the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the latest report by the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA).
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Botswana

• Botswana’s economic outlook revised to negative due to diamond market pressures: S&P Global

S&P Global Ratings has revised Botswana’s economic outlook to negative from stable, citing external and fiscal pressures. The agency confirmed its ’BBB+/A-2’ long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings for the country. The decision reflects the challenges Botswana faces due to decreased global demand and prices for diamonds, which are pivotal to its fiscal revenues and exports.
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• Business community urged to drive economic development to reduce unemployment in Botswana

Botswanan President Duma Boko on Tuesday urged the private sector to take a more active part in driving the country’s development and economy to alleviate high youth unemployment. President Boko made the remarks at a high-level business engagement forum in Gaborone, the capital of Botswana, organized by the Office of the President in cooperation with the Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE), the Botswana Investment and Trade Center (BITC), and Business Botswana.
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Central Africa
Cameroon

• Cameroon Secures $400mln from World Bank in New Funding Deals

Cameroon secured $400 million (about CFA239.6 billion at the current exchange rate) from the World Bank to improve public finance management and promote sustainable, inclusive growth. According to a statement from the World Bank, the funds will be provided through two new financing deals. The first will offer budget support to help Cameroon boost its efforts toward inclusive and sustainable growth while enhancing its resilience to climate change. The World Bank highlighted that Cameroon’s economy is grappling with rising budgetary pressures and growing external financing needs. This support will help the government implement bold reforms to improve fiscal sustainability, strengthen social services, and lay the groundwork for long-term infrastructure development.
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• Cameroon’s Trade Deficit Worsens as Imports Surge 11.4%

Cameroon saw its import volume jump by 11.4% YoY in Q3 2024, the national statistics agency (INS) recently reported. At the same time, exports dropped by 4.9% YoY, pushing the trade deficit to 11.7% of quarterly GDP, according to the same source. In 2023, for example, Cameroon’s trade deficit crossed the CFA2 trillion mark for the first time, reaching CFA2.004 trillion—up from CFA1.428 trillion in 2022. This represents an increase of CFA576 billion, or 40.3%, in just one year. The widening deficit highlights Cameroon’s growing reliance on imported goods.
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• Cameroon’s Public Debt up 7.8% in 2024, Driven by Government Borrowing

Cameroon’s public debt climbed 7.8% in 2024, reaching CFA14.237 trillion by the end of December—about 45.6% of the country’s GDP. The latest report from the National Sinking Fund (CAA), released in March 2025, attributes this rise mainly to borrowing by the central government. Despite the increase, the CAA maintains that the debt remains under control and aligns with the country’s 2024-2026 Medium-Term Debt Strategy, which aims to keep it below 50% of GDP by 2026. This target is still well under the regional limit of 70% of GDP. The bulk of the debt—92.6%—comes from the central government, while public enterprises account for 7.2%, and local governments hold a minimal 0.08%. The report also notes that central government borrowing surged 8.7% over the year, reflecting growing budgetary commitments.
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Democratic Republic of Congo

• Congo president meets US lawmaker amid talk of mineral deal

Democratic Republic of Congo’s President Felix Tshisekedi has met U.S. lawmaker Ronny Jackson to discuss fighting in the east of the country and opportunities for U.S. investment, Congo’s presidency said. The meeting took place one week after Washington said it was open to exploring critical minerals partnerships with Congo. A Congolese lawmaker in February contacted U.S. officials to pitch a minerals-for-security deal.
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• DR Congo and Rwanda call for ceasefire in Qatar talks

The Democratic Republic of Congo’s President Félix Tshisekedi and his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame have called for an “immediate ceasefire” in eastern DR Congo, after having direct talks in Qatar. It is the first time two leaders have met since Rwanda-backed M23 rebels stepped up an offensive in the region, where authorities say 7,000 people have been killed since January. It is unclear whether the M23 would heed the ceasefire call, after the rebels refused to attend peace talks in Angola on Tuesday. DR Congo accuses Rwanda of arming the M23 and sending troops to support the rebels in the conflict. Despite assertions from both the UN and US, Rwanda has denied supporting the M23.
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