March 28, 2025/United Capital Research
Anglophone West Africa (WAEMU)
Nigeria
- Benin, Togo owe Nigeria $8.8m electricity debt
Benin Republic and Togo owe Nigeria $8.84mn for the electricity consumed in Q4-2024. Additionally, the six international bilateral customers being supplied by Gencos in the Nigerian electricity supply industry “made a payment of $5.21mn against the cumulative invoice of $14.05mn issued by the Market Operator for services rendered in Q4-2024,” translating to a remittance performance of 37.08%. The international companies are Paras-SBEE in Benin Republic ($2.65mn); Paras-CEET also in Benin ($1.64mn); Transcorp-SBEE (Ughelli) in Benin paid $1.71mn out of $3.59mn; Transcorp-SBEE (Afam 3) paid $0.90mn out of its $1.2mn invoice; Odukpani-CEET in Togo owes $2.37mn.
- Nigeria’s digital payments, others to hit $1.5tn
The digital payments economy in Nigeria and other African countries is projected to hit $1.5tn by the end of this decade, driven by improved internet penetration and financial inclusion rate. This estimate was indicated in the Mastercard-commissioned report by Genesis Analytics. According to the report, Africa’s digital transformation is underpinned by rapid advancements in internet penetration and financial inclusion, two of the fastest-growing enablers of digital payments across the continent. Internet penetration in Africa is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 20%, while financial inclusion is set to expand at 6% per year.
- Dangote refinery, others may import $1.4bn crude monthly
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery and some modular refineries in Nigeria may spend about $8.56bn to import an estimated 122,400,000 barrels of crude oil to achieve full operational capacity in six months. This means the refiners may spend about $1.43bn monthly on the importation of crude oil into Nigeria. The plants may spend this much amid the uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of the naira-for-crude policy between the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Dangote refinery, coupled with concerns about the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation of the Federal Government.
- Nigeria’s money supply records first drop in 2025, falls to N110.32tn
Nigeria’s money supply contracted for the first time in 2025, dropping to N110.32 trillion in February from N110.94 trillion in January. The 0.56% decline comes amid continued liquidity management by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), following earlier signs of monetary tightening and exchange rate adjustments. The figure, however, still reflects a significant 15.45% increase year-on-year compared to the N95.56 trillion recorded in February 2024.
- World Bank flags Nigeria’s weak statistical performance
The World Bank has expressed concern over Nigeria’s poor statistical performance, noting that the country is lagging behind its aspirational peers such as Mexico, Colombia, South Africa and Brazil. The Practice Manager for West and Central Africa, Mr Johan Mistiaen advised that an annual investment of between $10m and $15m in the country’s statistical infrastructure would significantly improve performance and align Nigeria with its peers.
Ghana
- Ghana’s Surging Gold Exports Propel Mining Sector Expansion
Ghana is capitalizing on its gold exports to drive economic growth, with revenues increasing to $11.6 billion in 2024 – a 52.6% increase from the $7.6 billion recorded in 2023. Gold exports accounted for 57% of the country’s total export revenue, solidifying the industry’s role as a key contributor to GDP expansion. Notably, small-scale miners contributed $5 billion to the sector’s export revenue.
- Central banks of Ghana and Kenya to pause rates in coming days until May
The Bank of Ghana and the Central Bank of Kenya will pause cutting interest rates at their upcoming meetings and resume in May, a Reuters poll found on Thursday, as inflation challenges in the region suggest a cautionary stance for policymakers. While central banks in countries directly in the firing line of U.S. President Donald Trump’s import tariffs pause or end cutting cycles, some in Africa are expected to cut between 125-400 basis points (bps) this year.
- Ghana inflation ‘uncomfortably high’, new central bank governor says
Ghana’s new central bank governor said on Monday that inflation remains uncomfortably high and would require a balanced monetary policy. Consumer price inflation was 23.1% in February, down from a peak of over 54% in December 2022 but well above the Bank of Ghana’s targets of 8% with a margin of error of 2 percentage points. The West African gold and cocoa producer defaulted on most of its external debt in 2022, leading to a painful restructuring which is at its tail end.
Francophone West Africa
Ivory Coast
- Côte d’Ivoire Secures Better CFA Bond Rates Abroad than in WAEMU.
On March 26, 2025, Côte d’Ivoire made history by issuing the first-ever CFA franc-denominated bond on the international market, becoming the first African state to do so. The operation raised CFA220 billion (about €335 million) at a rate of 6.875% over three years, with repayment to be made in euros—the currency to which the CFA franc is pegged at a fixed rate—thereby minimizing exchange rate risk.
- French space company 10 Nord sets up Ivorian subsidiary.
French start-up 10 Nord, which specialises in spatial imagery, is preparing to open a subsidiary in Ivory Coast in the hopes of securing a share in the West African market.
East Africa
Kenya
- Kenya targets sustainable debt cuts amid IMF programme uncertainty
Kenya plans to cut its debt to below 55% of its GDP in the next two years, Finance Minister John Mbadi said, as the government awaits the outcome of its request for a new International Monetary Fund lending programme. Financial markets reacted negatively last week when it was announced that Kenya and the IMF had abandoned the final review of the East African nation’s current $3.6 billion support programme.
- Kenya Airways records profit after more than a decade of losses
Kenya Airways said that it had made a pretax profit last year after more than a decade of losses, helped by foreign exchange gains. One of Africa’s biggest airlines, its pretax profit was 5.53 billion shillings ($42.82 million) in 2024, compared with a loss of 22.86 billion shillings the year before. The airline had been in the red since 2013.
- Kenya seeks new IMF loan deal, says no disagreements with Fund
Kenya has applied for a new lending programme from the International Monetary Fund that will factor in unused money from the current programme which both sides walked away from last week, Finance Minister John Mbadi said. The East African nation and the IMF agreed last week to ditch the ninth and final review of the current programme, which was set to expire next month, sending Kenya’s dollar bonds lower. Mbadi said the decision to stop the review was down to time limitations, and denied reports that Kenya had fallen out with the IMF over the government’s failure to meet some of the targets set in the current programme. The IMF has not commented on why the ninth review did not go ahead.
- Kenya missing final IMF review could delay other cash
Missed disbursements from the International Monetary Fund complicate the Kenyan government’s strategy of lowering its debt-servicing costs and could delay other funding, ratings agency S&P said. Since IMF funding often serves as a catalyst for other official and private flows, we expect there might be delays to World Bank (about $800 million) and United Arab Emirates (UAE; $1.5 billion) funding in the first-half 2025. In the meantime, the government has built up sufficient foreign exchange reserves of about $10 billion and could plug immediate concessional financing shortfalls with domestic funding or other commercial facilities, albeit at a much higher cost.
Rwanda
- Treasury Chief Kabera Defends New 3 Per Cent Tourism Levy
A new tourism levy that was introduced recently by the government is set to benefit the sector, Godfrey Kabera, Minister of State for National Treasury at the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, has said. The new tourism levy, which introduces a 3 per cent tax on accommodation services (excluding VAT), applies to hotels, motels, lodges, apartments, and Airbnb facilities. Once enacted, all accommodation businesses will be required to register for the tax and remit payments monthly.
Tanzania
- China’s CCECC to invest $1.4 billion in Tanzania-Zambia railway
The China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) will invest $1.4 billion to upgrade the Tanzania-Zambia railway, the line’s operator said, improving a key route for copper exports from central Africa. The railway, widely known by its initials, TAZARA, also offers a way to bypass logistics bottlenecks in South Africa that have slowed copper and cobalt exports. The decision to grant a concession follows an in-depth evaluation of TAZARA’s challenges over the years, which necessitated urgent intervention.
- World Bank injects $200mln for Dodoma transport upgrade
The World Bank has approved a $200 million loan to upgrade Dodoma’s transport infrastructure, supporting Tanzania’s push to transform its administrative capital into a commercial hub. The funds will kick-start the Dodoma Integrated and Sustainable Transport (DIST) project, aimed at improving roads and public transport. The initiative seeks to open economic opportunities for the city’s rapidly expanding population, which is now growing at 6.4 percent a year, nearing one million residents in 2023.
Uganda
- Uganda’s $5 billion EACOP pipeline gets funding boost
The company developing Uganda’s EACOP crude pipeline has closed the first allocation of external financing from a syndicate of institutions, including commercial banks and Afreximbank, a statement from EACOP Ltd. Among the financiers are Standard Bank, Stanbic Bank Uganda, KCB Bank Uganda and Saudi Arabia’s Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector.
- MTN Group and Airtel Africa agree to share networks in Uganda and Nigeria
MTN Group and Airtel Africa have struck a deal to share mobile phone network infrastructure in Uganda and Nigeria, aiming to save on investments while still increasing service coverage. Mobile operators in Africa are seeing sustained demand for digital and financial services, but building and maintaining networks are expensive, especially for fast 5G connections. Sharing infrastructure allows operators to extend their network coverage more quickly, especially in rural or less densely populated areas where it might not be economically viable to build separate networks.
- Uganda’s February coffee exports jump 28% y/y on high prices
The volume of Uganda’s coffee exports rose 27.9% in February, compared to the same month a year ago, as high prices pushed traders to release larger quantities from their inventories, the agriculture ministry has said. Uganda is Africa’s largest coffee exporter followed by Ethiopia, and primarily cultivates the robusta variety. In February, the east African country shipped 555,756 60-kilogram bags of coffee, which was 27.9% more than the same month last year.
- Ugandan parliament approves $190 million loan to pay power distributor Umeme
Uganda’s parliament has approved a government request to borrow $190 million from Stanbic Bank to compensate power distributor Umeme Limited for unrecovered investments after its concession expires, the energy minister said. Umeme is listed on both the Ugandan and the neighbouring Kenyan stock exchanges and has monopoly rights to distribute electricity in Uganda through the concession, which started in 2005. The company was notified that the licence, which is due to expire at the end of this month, would not be renewed.
Southern Africa
South Africa
- South Africa Producer Inflation Below Forecasts at 1%
Producer price inflation in South Africa ticked down to 1% in February 2025, from 1.1% in January and below market forecasts of 1.3%. Prices slowed down a bit for food products, beverages and tobacco products (4.2% vs 4.4% in January); metals, machinery, equipment and computing equipment (1.2% vs 1.4%); non-metallic mineral products (-1.6% vs 1.7%); and electrical machinery and communication and metering equipment (3.7% vs 5.1%).
- South Africa Reports FDI Inflows in Q4
South Africa recorded foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows of ZAR 7.5 billion in Q4 2024, compared to outflows of ZAR 3.2 billion in Q3, driven by increased equity investments from non-resident parent companies, according to central bank data.
- South Africa Consumer Confidence Tumbles in Q1
The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index for South Africa plunged to -20 in the first quarter of 2025, the lowest point since Q2 2023, down from -6 in the previous period. This marked the second consecutive quarter of declining sentiment, as consumers were shaken by the recent budget proposal to increase the VAT tax rate. The worsening diplomatic relations between South Africa and the US, and the negative consequences of the trade war started by President Trump also weighed on sentiment.
- South Africa 10-Year Bond Yield Remains Elevated
South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed steadily since mid-December, surpassing 10.90%, its highest since June 2024, amid concerns over the national budget and political risks. While the National Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts and the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) have improved investor sentiment, doubts linger about the government’s ability to achieve sustainable growth and fiscal discipline. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presented a revised budget on March 12, which was rejected by most major parliamentary parties despite reducing the proposed VAT hike from 2 to 1 percentage point over two years.
Zambia
- Zambia Inflation Rate Falls for 1st Time since 2023
Zambia’s annual inflation rate eased to 16.5% in March 2025, from 16.8% in the prior month, which was the steepest since November 2021. This was the first slowdown in inflation since June 2023, as favorable rains led to a more modest increase in food prices (18.9% vs 20.6% in February). Meanwhile, non-food inflation accelerated to 13.2% from 11.7% in February.
Central Africa
DR Congo
- Billions in Investment Opportunities Presented by Premier Invest at Congo Energy & Investment Forum (CEIF) 2025.
Financial services provider Premier Invest has announced a series of investment opportunities in the African energy and oil and gas sectors. covering a range of four energy projects across Benin, Zambia and South Africa and five oil and gas projects across Nigeria and Ghana, as well as Guyana.
