April 15, 2025/Oilprice.com
Michael Kern
Editor, Oilprice.com
In this week’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week.
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.
– Pre-tariff frenzy has helped Chinese exports beat expectations in Q1 2025, with total exports rising 12.4% year-over-year in March, triple of analyst expectations and amounting to a hefty $313.9 billion.
– Not even US-China trade saw notable changes last month as Beijing’s trade surplus surged to $27.6 billion on the back of a 4.5% year-over-year increase in bilateral trade.
– Chinese refiners also boosted their crude imports last month, taking in 12.1 million b/d of oil, the highest monthly tally since August 2023, with April preliminary data showing no signs of slowing down this month.
– Judging by Singapore’s bunkering demand data, container throughput in March was the highest since China officially came out of its 2021-2022 lockdowns, indicating that global trade front-loaded operations into Q1 2025, setting the stage for a large Trump tariff-driven slump in Q2.
Market Movers
– One of the most closely followed exploration wells of this year, the Elektra-1 wildcat spudded offshore Cyprus by ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) turned out to be dry, sapping hopes of a larger Eastern Mediterranean bonanza.
– French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) inked a 20-year term supply deal for offtake of 1.5 mtpa LNG from the Rio Grande LNG project developed by NextDecade (NASDAQ:NEXT), to be sourced from the prospective Train 4.
– UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) has flagged to investors ahead of its April 29 Q1 earnings call that the company will see an increase of $4 billion in total debt, taking its total debt burden to more than $27 billion.
– ADNOC, the national oil company of the UAE, is reportedly considering buying the US natural gas assets of investment firm Aethon Energy Management, potentially valued at up to $10 billion.
Tuesday, April 15, 2025
As they digest President Trump’s tariff warfare, oil market participants are now correcting their past outlooks. The International Energy Agency carved 300,000 b/d out of its 2025 demand outlook, and OPEC lowered its forecast, too, albeit only by half as much as the IEA. Goldman Sachs, UBS, HSBC, and BNP Paribas have all slashed some $5-15 per barrel from their previous outlooks, with Brent and WTI now trading around $65 and $61.50, respectively.
Iran, US Laud ‘Positive’ Start to Talks. US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi held negotiations in Oman this past weekend that both sides dubbed ‘constructive’, agreeing to hold another round of talks on nuclear proliferation as soon as next weekend.
IEA Forecasts European LNG Boom. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that Europe’s LNG imports will increase by 25% in 2025, equivalent to 33 billion cubic metres, as the continent needs to replenish depleted stocks and no longer can avail itself of Russian pipeline gas.
Venezuela Takes Over Chevron Cargoes. Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA has ordered Chevron (NYSE:CVX) to return two cargoes of exported crude and cancelled the US major’s upcoming oil loadings, in reaction to US President Trump’s sanction snapback starting May 27.
Colombia’s Gas Ambition Soars. After Colombia confirmed that the Sirius gas prospect contains 6 TCf, the largest gas find in the history of the country, the joint Ecopetrol-Petrobras JV announced it would start offering 135 MMCf/d of gas to the wider market from 2029 onward.
Key Canadian Pipeline to Restart Soon. Canadian midstream firm South Bow (TSE:SOBO) plans to restart the 620,000 b/d Keystone pipeline on Tuesday after flows were halted last week on the back of a 3,500-barrel spill in North Dakota, but it still needs a written PHMSA approval to do so.
UK Pushes China Away From Its Steel Sector. The UK Business Ministry enacted emergency legislation, oddly on a Saturday, to take control of Chinese-owned British Steel after the operator, Jingye Group, refused a $650 million government aid package to repair damaged furnaces.
Italy Mulls Delaying Out Coal Phaseout. Italy’s government is reconsidering the country’s end-2025 mandate to end coal-powered generation in the country, as utility major Enel and oil firm ENI both criticized the policy, calling it a ‘folly’ at a time when Germany maximizes coal to meet demand.
OPEC Cuts Its Demand Outlook on Trade Wars. Reflecting global trade pressures stemming from the US-China trade war, OPEC has lowered its demand forecasts for both 2025 and 2026 by a uniform 150,000 b/d, expecting this year’s oil consumption growth to be 1.3 million b/d.
Saudi Arabia Wants US Nuclear Deal. Saudi Arabia and the US will soon sign a preliminary agreement to develop a civil nuclear industry in the Middle Eastern kingdom, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright, although the two sides still negotiate over some non-proliferation clauses.
Beijing Sticks to Its Love of Coal. China’s economic and energy planner NDRC announced that Beijing would continue building coal-fired power plants through 2027 to stabilize the power grid in regions that don’t have enough clean energy potential, moving the country’s coal demand peak to 2028.
The Sky is the Limit for Gold in 2025. US investment bank Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) raised its year-end forecast for gold to $3,700 per ounce, citing ever-stronger purchasing demand from central banks and higher-than-expected trade war fallout, with the bullion currently trading above $3,200/oz.
Unfazed by Tariffs, Copper Recovers. Donald Trump’s exemption of China-produced consumer electronics from the 145% import tariff has buoyed copper prices and sent the May COMEX contract back to $10,170 per metric tonne during intraday trading, a hefty $1,000/mt higher than LME prices.
Next-Gen US LNG Export Plant Runs into Delays. The Lake Charles LNG project developed by US firm Energy Transfer (NYSE:ET) could only be commissioned in 2031 after the midstream major asked for a 3-year deadline extension, citing Biden’s LNG moratorium and the lack of contracting availability as key causes.
