The recently released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data by the National Bureau of Statistics revealed an increase in inflationary pressures in the Nigerian economy. This represents the first uptrend since the CPI was rebased in January 2024 to reflect recent economic realities and changes in consumption patterns. Specifically, headline inflation rose to 24.23% YoY in March, 105bps higher than what was recorded in the previous month.

In the interim, we expect mild pressure on consumer prices, driven by the upcoming Easter celebration, which should trigger demand for food and other services. Going forward, we highlight that the trajectory of inflation will largely depend on key macroeconomic variables such as energy prices and the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. However, we still maintain our broad expectation for inflation to edge lower in 2025 and likely end the year at around 16% to 18%, due to the favorable base effect and stable energy costs as the naira for crude deal resumes after the temporary halt. Kindly find HERE, the full report, covering our analysis and considerations.