May 9, 2025/United Capital Research
Anglophone West Africa (WAEMU)
Nigeria
- Strong customer demand lifts Nigeria’s business activity as PMI holds at 54.2
Nigeria’s private sector sustained its growth momentum into the second quarter of 2025, as strong customer demand underpinned another solid expansion in business activity, according to the latest Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report. The headline PMI figure stood at 54.2 in April, broadly in line with the 54.3 recorded in March, marking the fifth consecutive month that the index remained above the 50.0 no-change threshold.
- Tinubu approves plan to attract $122bn power investments
President Bola Tinubu has formally ratified and adopted a road map for the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry by approving the National Integrated Electricity Policy. The policy aims to unlock $122.2bn in investments to overhaul Nigeria’s power sector. At the Federal Executive Council meeting on Monday, Tinubu ratified the long-awaited National Integrated Electricity Policy—first submitted in December 2024—setting the stage for Nigeria to attract $122.2bn in investments.
- Senate passes two tax reform bills to modernize Nigeria’s fiscal framework, retains VAT at 7.5%
The Nigerian Senate has approved two out of four major tax reform bills proposed by President Bola Tinubu, marking a significant step toward modernizing Nigeria’s fiscal framework. However, the upper chamber rejected the proposed increase in Value-Added Tax (VAT) from 7.5% to 10%, opting to maintain the current rate while allowing VAT input claims on fixed assets, overhead costs, and administrative expenses.
- Nigeria exits IMF debtor list amid Tinubu’s fiscal reform push
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has removed Nigeria from its list of debtor countries, following the full settlement of outstanding credit obligations to the Fund. This was disclosed in the latest IMF report titled “Total IMF Credit Outstanding – Movement from May 01, 2025 to May 06, 2025”, published on the multilateral lender’s website on Wednesday. According to the document, Nigeria is no longer listed among the 91 developing and least developed countries with outstanding credit obligations to the IMF, which collectively owed $117.8 billion as of May 6, 2025.
- ExxonMobil to invest $1.5 billion in Nigeria’s deepwater oil fields between Q2 2025-2027
ExxonMobil has affirmed its long-term commitment to Nigeria’s oil and gas sector with a planned $1.5 billion investment in deepwater exploration and development projects, a move set to reinforce confidence in the country’s upstream potential. The planned investment, which will be executed between Q2 2025 and 2027, will focus primarily on revitalizing production at the Usan deepwater oil field. The oil major has indicated that a Final Investment Decision (FID) is expected in late Q3 2025, pending the final approval of the Field Development Plan (FDP), along with internal and partner funding approvals.
Ghana
- Ghana consumer inflation slows for fourth month in April
Ghana’s consumer inflation opens new tab slowed for a fourth month in a row in April, to 21.2% year on year from 22.4% in March, the statistics service said on Wednesday. Ghana’s economy has been battling persistently high inflation, with the rates above the central bank’s target of 8% with a margin of error of 2 percentage points either side. Central bank governor Johnson Asiama said in March a tight monetary policy stance was needed to lower consumer inflation in the gold, oil and cocoa-producing West African nation. He also announced a surprise rate hike, adding that its impact on inflation will be reassessed before the next rate meeting in May.
- Govt’s indebtedness to GNPC balloons to $1.25 billion
Government indebtedness to the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) has increased to $1.25 billion as of December 2024. This is according to the latest report from the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC), which has raised fresh concerns over the sustainability of the state-owned oil firm. PIAC, in its 2021 annual report, revealed that GNPC was unable to recover $126.68 million in budgeted revenue from loans and guarantees – part of a cumulative $318.09 million owed by the government and its agencies since 2011.
- Ghana’s non-traditional exports projected to hit $10bn annually by 2030
President John Dramani Mahama has announced that the newly established Accelerated Export Development Committee (AEDC) is expected to drive Ghana’s non-traditional export earnings from the current $3.5 billion to an ambitious $10 billion annually by 2030. The 18-member presidential committee, inaugurated as part of a broader strategy to expand Ghana’s foreign exchange inflows and stimulate long-term economic growth, will play a critical role in coordinating the country’s export development efforts.
- T-Bill Auction: Treasury falls short by GHS1.59bn as yields tumble
The government missed its treasury auction target by GHS 1.59 billion last week, according to results published by the Bank of Ghana. Total bids submitted amounted to GHS 4.73 billion, falling short of the GHS 6.43 billion target. All bids for the 91-day treasury bill were accepted in full, totalling GHS 2.98 billion. For the 182-day bill, investors submitted GHS 869 million in bids, of which GHS 668 million was accepted. The 364-day instrument attracted GHS 1.43 billion in bids, but only GHS 1.07 billion was accepted—largely through non-competitive bids.
Francophone West Africa
Ivory Coast
- Ivory Coast raises projected cashew output as threatened tariffs hit exports
Ivory Coast, the world’s biggest cashew grower, has raised its projected output to 1.3 million metric tons from 1.15 million tons even as potential U.S. tariffs and a falling dollar drag down exports, the head of the sector regulator told Reuters.
Mali
- Barrick CEO says he does not know where Mali is keeping miner’s confiscated gold.
Barrick Mining is spending $15 million a month to keep its Mali mine running and doesn’t know where Mali’s government is keeping the gold it from the Canadian company, CEO Mark Bristow said on Wednesday.
- Mali suspends political activities ahead of planned protest.
Mali has suspended political activities across the country ahead of a planned protest against the military junta that has ruled since coups in 2020 and 2021, authorities said on Wednesday.
- Mali pressed to pay ‘enormous’ debt for regional dam
Mali owes more than $94 million to the entity managing a dam which also provides power to Senegal and Mauritania, and the debt has become “a question of life and death” for its ability to continue operating, according to a letter seen by Reuters. The funding gap raises the spectre of more electricity supply problems in Mali, where outages in recent years have dented public support for the military government that took power following coups in 2020 and 2021.
Guinea
- Guinea aims to pull EGA’s licence over alumina refinery row, sources say
The Guinean government’s move to revoke Emirates Global Aluminum’s mining license stemmed from the company’s failure to fulfil its commitment to construct an alumina refinery, people familiar with the matter have told Reuters.
East Africa
Kenya
- Kenya’s 2025/26 budget proposals avoid new taxes after last year’s riots
The Kenyan shilling held steady on Thursday compared with the previous session, supported by subdued dollar demand from importers, traders said. Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 129.25/129.45, same level as Wednesday’s close.
- Kenya: Relief for struggling borrowers as Absa restructures $26mlm loans
Absa Bank Kenya has restructured Ksh3.4 billion ($26.35 million) in loans it gave to customers who are struggling to repay as a result of economic challenges linked to high cost of doing business, state taxes and levies and declining incomes. The bank says in its latest annual report for 2024 that the quality of its loan portfolio was heavily impacted by headwinds coming from the operating environment, which strained the personal household, manufacturing and trade sectors resulting in a surge in the gross non-performing loans (NPLs) ratio to 12.3 percent, from 9.6 percent, compared to the industry average of 16.4 percent.
- Kenya’s private sector growth hits 27-month high in April, PMI shows
Kenya’s private sector experienced its fastest growth in over two years, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 52.0 in April. This growth was driven by increased customer demand, leading to higher output, purchasing, and job creation, particularly in services, agriculture, and construction sectors
- Kenya GDP Growth Quickens to 1-Year High
Kenya’s economy expanded by 5.1% year-on-year in Q4 2024, the fastest pace in a year, following an upwardly revised 4.2% growth in the previous quarter. Agriculture, which accounts for over one-fifth of GDP, grew by 4.3%, slightly up from 4% previously. Noteworthy gains were seen in accommodation and food services (+10.9%), public administration (+9.2%), wholesale and retail trade (+6.4%), transportation and storage (+5.6%), information and communication (+5.6%), and finance and insurance (+6%).
Uganda
- Uganda shilling stable on subdued demand
The Ugandan shilling was stable against the dollar on Thursday, with hard currency demand subdued across both merchandise importers and interbank players, traders said. At 0821 GMT commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,655/3,665, unchanged from Wednesday’s close.
- Uganda, Tanzania top East African Countries in economic growth rates
Uganda saw 5.9 percent GDP growth, from 4.6 percent in 2023, propelled by advancements in oil sector developments and public infrastructure projects. Uganda and Tanzania outperform their East African peers in economic performance in 2024, recording increased growth rates buoyed by improved activity in infrastructure, industrial and oil sectors.
- Uganda Business Confidence Rises in April
The Business Tendency Index in Uganda rose to 59.32 in April 2025, from 58.32 in the previous month. The increase was driven by improvement in the business situation (58.44 vs 55.09 in March), order volumes with suppliers (62.57 vs 62.39), and financial situation (53.52 vs 50.64). On the other hand, these were partially offset by declines in average selling price (52.28 vs 54.61), and access to credit (33.32 vs 34.65). Among sectors, confidence increased in construction (59.34 vs 55.41), manufacturing (57.1 vs 54.65), wholesale trade (58.33 vs 56.69), and other services (62.76 vs 58.54), while it decreased in agriculture (56.31 vs 61.71).
Southern Africa
South Africa
- South African rand lifted by optimism about US trade deals
The South African rand strengthened on Thursday, boosted by optimism that U.S. President Donald Trump would seal trade deals with major partners after he announced a first agreement with Britain.
- South African business activity stabilises as PMI hits neutral mark
South Africa’s private sector showed signs of stabilisation in April, emerging from a four-month downturn as sales picked up slightly and supply chains strengthened, a survey showed on Tuesday.
- South Africa’s Gold Fields to buy Australia’s Gold Road for $2.40bn
South Africa’s Gold Fields (GFIJ.J), will acquire Gold Road Resources (GOR.AX), in a sweetened deal valuing the Australian miner’s equity at A$3.7 billion ($2.4 billion), as sky-high bullion prices drive a wave of tie-ups.
- South Africa’s Ramaphosa Unveils New Reforms to Stoke Growth
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa unveiled the second phase of a reform program aimed at firing up an economy that’s grown by an average of less than 1% annually over the past decade, with measures planned to fix dysfunctional municipalities and drive the adoption of digital technologies.
- South Africa is set for a low-inflation year
CPI inflation in South Africa is at its lowest point in the inflation cycle, with March coming in at 2.7%, having fallen from 7.8% in July 2022. This means CPI is below the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s inflation target range of 3% to 6%, although Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop explained that its path has been quite uneven.
Namibia
- Namibia’s trade deficit widens by N$700mn in March
Namibia’s trade deficit widened by N$700.00mn in March 2025, driven largely by a sharp increase in petroleum oil imports, the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) has reported. According to the NSA’s latest trade bulletin, imports of petroleum oils surged by N$999.00mn from the previous month, contributing to a trade deficit of N$2.10bn in that category alone.
Botswana
- Econsult predicts zero GDP growth for 2025
Economists at a local economic consultancy firm have predicted that Botswana’s economic growth will be flat for the full year of 2025, mainly dampened by a sluggish diamond market and ballooning budgetary deficits.
Angola
- JPMorgan’s $200.00mn Angola margin call reveals Africa’s new debt pains
A $200 million margin call by JPMorgan on Angola’s $1.00bn loan at the height of the global selloff of risky assets has exposed the high costs of unorthodox financing heavily indebted African issuers have been turning to, analysts say.
Central Africa
Gabon
- Gabon names prominent banker as minister of finance
Gabon’s leader Brice Oligui Nguema has named a new cabinet, after his landslide victory in a presidential election in April, choosing a prominent banker and businessman to tackle the country’s acute liquidity shortage.
Rwanda
- Rwanda economy to grow at slower pace in 2025, finance minister says
Rwanda’s economy is forecast to grow at a slower pace this year than in 2024, while government spending for the 2025/26 fiscal year is expected to rise by about a fifth, Finance Minister Yusuf Murangwa said on Thursday.
- Congo-Rwanda Peace Talks: Draft Proposal Submitted
Congo and Rwanda have submitted a draft peace proposal as part of a U.S.-led initiative aimed at ending the ongoing conflict in eastern Congo. U.S. President Donald Trump’s senior adviser for Africa and the Middle East, Massad Boulos, announced the receipt of the drafts from both nations, calling it “an important step” towards peace.
