May 30, 2025/United Capital Research
Anglophone West Africa (WAEMU)
Nigeria
- Fresh $24bn borrowing may balloon Nigeria’s debt to N183tn
Nigeria’s public debt is set for another significant jump as President Bola Tinubu has requested the National Assembly’s approval to secure fresh foreign loans amounting to about $24.14bn. The fresh borrowing is composed of $21.54bn, €2.19bn, and ¥15bn. Using the latest market exchange rates €1 to $1.1381 and ¥1 to $0.0068—the euro component converts to approximately $2.5bn while the Japanese yen translates to $102m. In total, the new loans amount to an estimated $24.14bn. When converted at the official rate of N1,583.7388 to the dollar, the naira equivalent of these loans comes to N38.24tn.
- Foreign portfolio inflows to stock market tumble by 92.39% in April amid global uncertainty
Foreign portfolio investment into Nigeria’s equities market fell sharply by 92.39% in April 2025, as inflows dropped to N26.64 billion, compared to N349.97 billion recorded in March. The significant decline, driven largely by the absence of block trades that boosted March activity, comes amid continued global uncertainty and growing caution among international investors. According to data from the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), total foreign transactions also plummeted by 90.99%, from N699.89 billion in March to N63.07 billion in April.
- Reps pass N1.81tn 2025 FCT budget
The House of Representatives on Wednesday passed the N1.81tn 2025 budget for the Federal Capital Territory. The bill scaled the third reading at a session presided over by the Deputy Speaker, Benjamin Kalu. Out of the N1.78tn, N1.28tn, representing 72.30%, was allocated to capital projects, while N494.1bn, or 27.70%, will cover recurrent expenditure.
- Foreign trade payment rises to $267.96m
Nigeria’s fulfilment of foreign trade transactions through Letters of Credit rose by 3.68 per cent year-on-year to $267.96m in the first four months of 2025, up from $258.46m in the corresponding period of 2024. Though the four-month total marks a slight annual increase, the month-on-month trend reveals volatility. February saw a 48.00% increase from January, followed by a 54.4 per cent decline in March. The figure rose again in April by 47.7%.
- Electricity subsidy rises to N982bn
The Federal Government’s outstanding debt to electricity distribution companies in subsidy payments increased by N5.3bn or 2.7 per cent in the first five months of 2025 to N982.4bn. It surged from N196.44bn to N201.75bn, pushing the total subsidy debt to N982.4bn between January and May 2025. This underscores mounting financial pressures in the power sector and raises concern over the sustainability of ongoing subsidy interventions. Figures from the monthly Multi-Year Tariff Orders obtained from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission showed that the subsidy on power was approximately N196.44bn in January.
Ghana
- Public debt drops by GHC150bn as cedi appreciates
President John Mahama has announced a GH¢150-billion-cedi reduction in the country’s total debt over the past five months, attributing the improvement to stringent fiscal measures and currency stabilisation efforts. He disclosed this in his address at the African Development Bank (AfDB) Annual Meetings in Abidjan yesterday, where he outlined Ghana’s path to achieving debt sustainability. The President said that the cedi’s recent stabilisation had been crucial in reducing debt valuation pressures.
- Banks to hold reserves in original deposit currencies from June
Commercial banks operating in the country will now be required to maintain cash reserves in the same currency as the deposits they hold. This is a key policy adjustment as the Bank of Ghana (BoG) amends its Dynamic Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) framework. The revision is to deepen financial sector stability and enhance monetary policy transmission and takes effect from 5 Jun 2025. Currently, banks hold all reserves in domestic currency to tighten liquidity and stabilise inflation. What this revised policy means is that foreign currency deposits must now be backed by foreign currency reserves. Reserves for cedi deposits will also be held in the local currency.
- Mobile Money transactions hit record GHC365billion in April 2025
Ghana’s mobile money ecosystem continues to soar, with the total value of transactions reaching a high of GH365 billion in April 2025, according to the latest data from the Bank of Ghana. The figure represents a 3.8% increase from the GH351.7 billion recorded in March, making it the highest monthly total so far this year. Analysts say the growth is being driven by both structural trends and recent policy shifts, notably the repeal of the Electronic Transfer Levy (E-Levy) by Parliament in March.
Francophone West Africa
Guinea
- Guinea Cancels 129 Mineral Exploration Permits In Push To Tighten Resource Control
Guinea’s military government has cancelled 129 mineral exploration permits, intensifying efforts to assert greater control over the country’s natural resources. The move, announced in a statement late Monday, is part of a broader campaign to reclaim underutilized assets and reallocate them to more active investors.
Senegal
- Senegal Court Charges Fifth Former Minister Amadou Mansour Faye Over Graft
A Senegalese court on Monday indicted a fifth minister from the country’s former government on corruption charges as President Bassirou Diomaye Faye steps up an anti-graft campaign, defence lawyers said.
Mali
- Barrick asks World Bank court to intervene in Mali proceedings
Barrick Mining opens new tab has asked the arbitration tribunal of the World Bank to intervene in legal proceedings in Mali, as the miner faces the possibility of the Loulo-Gounkoto mine falling under the control of the Mali government.
Ivory Coast
- Why did rumours of a coup sweep Ivory Coast this week?
Tensions over upcoming elections and the barring of an opposition candidate are mounting in a country where electoral violence once spiraled into war.
East Africa
Kenya
- World Bank cuts Kenya’s 2025 growth forecast as private sector squeezed
The World Bank has cut Kenya’s growth forecast for this year by half a point from its initial prediction to 4.5%, it said on Tuesday, citing high levels of debt, high lending rates and a decline in private sector credit.
- Kenya’s Equity Group reports 8% drop in Q1 pretax profit
Kenya’s Equity Group (EQTY.NR), opens new tab reported on Thursday that pretax profit dropped to 18.7 billion shillings ($145.02 million) in the first quarter of 2025 from 20.4 billion shillings a year earlier, as its interest income fell.
- Kenya’s financial regulators seek to boost issuers’ victim compensation
Kenya’s financial sector regulators are discussing a proposal to require fund managers, investment banks and stockbrokers to make full disclosures of their clients whose funds are invested in corporate bonds.
- World Bank Cuts Kenya’s 2025 Growth Forecast to 4.5%
The World Bank lowered Kenya’s GDP growth forecast by half a percentage point to 4.5% for this year, citing high levels of debt and lending rates, along with a decline in private sector credit. Inflation and foreign exchange rates have remained stable since last year, allowing policymakers to begin easing their monetary policy; however, real lending rates have not followed suit. This has led to a slowdown in credit growth, impacting sectors such as manufacturing, finance, and mining. Private credit grew by only 1.4% in December 2024, down sharply from 13.9% a year earlier. Meanwhile, Kenya’s debt reached 65.6% of GDP, placing the country in the high-risk of distress category. The economy expanded by 4.7% last year, down from 5.7% the previous year. The World Bank expects GDP growth to recover to around 5% over the next two years.
Uganda
- Ugandan shilling strengthens; offshore FX inflows help
The Ugandan shilling gained on Thursday, helped by dollar inflows from offshore investors participating in this week’s Treasury auction, traders said.
Southern Africa
South Africa
South Africa proposes buying US LNG as seeks trade deal
South Africa has offered to buy liquefied natural gas from the United States over a 10-year period as part of proposals to secure a trade deal, according to a ministerial statement posted on the South African government news agency website.
- South African rates in ‘neutral zone’ after latest cut, central bank deputy says
South Africa’s central bank believes it has reached a “neutral zone” on interest rates after its latest cut and now needs government reforms to spark stronger economic growth, Reserve Bank officials said on Thursday.
- South African central bank cuts rates and doubles down on lower inflation target
South Africa’s central bank was unexpectedly decisive in cutting interest rates on Thursday, with all members of its Monetary Policy Committee backing a cut as they doubled down on their preference for a lower inflation target.
- South African central bank governor’s comments on rate decision
Inflation was below 3% again in April. The undershoot of the target mainly reflects falling fuel costs, but underlying inflation is also well contained.
- South Africa producer inflation unchanged at 0.5% y/y in April
South Africa’s producer inflation was at 0.5% year on year in April, unchanged from March, statistics agency data showed on Thursday. The Producer Price Index increased 0.5% month on month in April, Statistics South Africa said.
- South African assets firm after central bank trims lending rate
South Africa’s rand, government bonds and stocks strengthened on Thursday after the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) trimmed its main lending rate, citing well-contained inflation. At 1525 GMT, the rand traded at 17.8050 against the dollar , roughly 1% stronger than Wednesday’s closing level, and hovered around a five-month high.
- POLL South Africa GDP growth outlook gets biggest cut since early 2023; SARB to trim rates
Economists have cut their consensus forecast for South African economic growth this year by 0.3 percentage points in May, in the biggest single monthly downgrade since early 2023, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday, as they factor in the impact of U.S. tariffs.
The last time growth forecasts got a similar trim was in early 2023 due to power shortages.
Botswana
- Cash-Strapped Govt Borrows P4.1bn from AfDB Amid Escalating Debt
The new facility, equivalent to about $300mn, comes as the country grapples with budgetary pressures, sluggish economic recovery, and ballooning expenditure. The AfDB loan is intended to support government reforms aimed at improving public service delivery and restoring fiscal stability.
- AfDB May Pull Plug on Troubled Zambezi Agro Project
AfDB) is likely to withdraw funding from Botswana’s ambitious Zambezi Integrated Agro-Commercial Development Project after the latest Implementation Progress and Results Report (IPR) rated the project as “problematic,” with unsatisfactory progress and development outcomes.
Angola
- Agreement Between Sonangol and Petrobras Stands Out in the Angola-Brazil Partnership
The signing of a memorandum that provides for the establishment of guidelines between Sonangol and Petrobras, with a view to evaluating cooperation opportunities for research and development of projects of interest in the Angolan offstream, are among the main economic highlights of the agreements signed between Angola and Brazil, in the last week.
Malawi
- EU to maintain direct budget support
The EU will continue providing direct budget support to Malawi despite the recent cancellation of IMF’s extended credit facility (ECF).
- NBM opens window for SMEs in agriculture
The National Bank of Malawi has said it has opened a funding window for small and medium entrepreneurs (SMEs) in the agricultural sector having observed that many people in the sectpr face working capital issues.
Central Africa
Cameroon
- Cameroon Raised CFAF242.9Bln in New Loans to Drive Development in Q1 2025
The government significantly boosted its external financing efforts in the first quarter of 2025 to underpin various development projects, the Autonomous Sinking Fund (CAA) reported. Five new project loan agreements were inked, totaling 242.9 billion CFA francs. Concessional loans, secured on favorable terms, accounted for more than half of this funding (56%), or 136 billion CFA francs. These came from key partners including the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) with 63 billion CFA francs, the European Investment Bank (28 billion CFA francs), the Kuwait Fund (6 billion CFA francs), and the African Development Fund (ADF) of the African Development Bank (AfDB) with 8 billion CFA francs.
- Cameroon to Tap 200 Bln CFA Francs on Int’l Market to Clear Debts
President Paul Biya has authorized Finance Minister Louis Paul Motazé to seek up to 200 billion CFA francs on the international capital market to fund “treasury operations for the 2025 fiscal year,” according to a presidential decree. This phrasing suggests the funds are primarily intended to partially settle the government’s domestic debt, specifically outstanding invoices to state suppliers, which have been pending at the public treasury for at least three months. This category of debt is technically referred to as “Reste-à-payer” (RAP).
