July 3, 2025/CSL Research
In the recently released May 2025 price watch report for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the average retail price for refilling a 5kg cylinder of cooking gas increased by 3.57% month-on-month (m/m), rising to ₦8,167.43 in May 2025 from ₦7,885.60 in April 2025. On a year-on-year (y/y) basis, this is an increase of 10.10% y/y compared to ₦7,418.45 in May 2024.
Also, the average retail price for refilling a 12.5kg cylinder of cooking gas increased by 2.18% m/m, inching up to ₦20,709.11 in May 2025 from ₦20,268.06 in April 2025. Y/y, this marks a 32.52% rise, compared to ₦15,627.40 in May 2024.
A conditional ban on LPG exports was introduced in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the ban initially boosted domestic gas sales quotas from total production volumes, leading to a relatively positive impact on retail LPG prices in early 2025. For example, average month-on-month price changes for 5kg and 12.5kg refills in January and February 2025 showed a slight 0.05% decline, compared to an average 2.13% increase recorded in Q4 2024.
However, domestic gas sales quotas have been gradually declining in recent months. According to the May 2025 Gas Production Status Report by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), domestic LPG sales fell by 10.61% m/m to 57,297.87 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) in May, following a 2.34% m/m decline in April.
Notably, the rate of price increases in May 2025 was lower than in April, despite the sharper drop in domestic supply. In April, the average retail price for refilling 5kg and 12.5kg cylinders surged by 7.69% and 9.82% m/m, respectively. This relative moderation in May is partly attributed to vendors drawing on existing stockpiles of cooking gas, though replenishing these inventories is likely to incur higher replacement costs. A persistent challenge to domestic LPG pricing remains the low proportion of local supply relative to total production. Currently, only 40% of total gas sales are allocated for domestic consumption, while 60% continue to be exported. This underscores the pressing need for improved policy measures to prioritize local availability and stabilize prices.
Click here to download full report: CSL Nigeria Daily – 03 July 2025 – Energy.pdf
