August 12, 2025/CSL Research
According to the latest data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), active mobile subscriptions grew modestly by 825,807 year-on-year (+0.48%) to 171.73 million in June 2025, up from 170.90 million in June 2024.
However, on a month-on-month basis, the sector recorded a slight contraction, with total subscriptions falling by 941,870 (-0.55%) from 172.67 million in May 2025. In our view, this monthly dip reflects short-term sectoral fluctuations commonly influenced by seasonal trends, economic factors, and operational constraints.
A key factor behind the subdued performance in June was the temporary suspension of National Identification Number (NIN) verifications by the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC), as it facilitated the migration to a new authentication platform—the High Availability NIMC Verification Service (HA-NVS). This suspension effectively halted new SIM activations across all networks, freezing subscriber onboarding and significantly impacting growth during the period. Additionally, an industry-wide directive from the Nigerian Communication Commission (NCC) limiting third-party agents to one SIM registration per customer further slowed mobile subscribers additions, compounding the decline in active subscriptions.
Telecom operators in Nigeria posted mixed results in June 2025. MTN, the country’s largest operator by subscriber base, recorded a slight decline, losing 1.01 million subscribers to close the month at 89.24 million, down from 90.25 million in May. Airtel, the second-largest operator, saw a moderate gain, adding 36,316 subscribers to reach 58.97 million, up from 58.93 million. Globacom posted a marginal increase, growing its subscriber base by 263,028 to 20.89 million, compared to 20.62 million in the previous month.
In contrast, 9mobile experienced the sharpest decline, shedding 236,238 subscribers and reducing its total active base to 2.44 million, down from 2.67 million in May.
Despite June’s modest numbers, we believe the decline was transitory and largely driven by temporary regulatory and operational disruptions. As NIN verifications resume and network operators adjust to the updated SIM registration protocols, we expect a rebound in mobile subscriptions in the coming months—driven in part by the reactivation of deactivated lines and the resumption of new SIM activations.
The sector remains structurally well-positioned for long-term expansion, supported by Nigeria’s large, youthful, and increasingly digital population. With substantial headroom for further telecom penetration, rising smartphone adoption, accelerating 4G and 5G rollout, and deepening broadband usage, we maintain a broadly positive outlook for Nigeria’s telecommunications sector in FY 2025. These dynamics not only enhance the sector’s resilience but also reinforce its attractiveness for long-term investment.
Click here to download full report: CSL Nigeria Daily – 12 August 2025 – Telecoms .pdf
