Global Markets:

United States

• US equity market advanced during the week as the market continues to expect interest rate cut.
• S&P 500, DJIA, and NASDAQ all appreciated to close in the green.

Europe

• European stocks ended the week near 5 months high due to optimism over Trump–Putin summit in Alaska. Investors expect the war in Ukraine to ease.
• STOXX 600 gained for four straight sessions before falling on Friday, However, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 outperformed while the UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.9%.
• Gains were broad across much of continental Europe, led by industrials, banks, and selected consumer names. Nevertheless, the UK market saw mixed results as miners and energy stocks underperformed.

Asia

• Asian equities posted a mixed performance, with early gains from Fed cut optimism fading on Chinese growth concerns.
• Japan outperformed, with the Nikkei hitting fresh record highs on robust Gross Domestic Report (GDP) data, and a weaker yen. SoftBank rose after strong quarterly earnings.
• Semiconductor stocks in Taiwan and South Korea extended gains as tariff exemptions and upbeat earnings lifted sentiment.
• Conversely, Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stocks fell as factory, retail, and property data signaled persistent economic weakness despite People’s Bank of China (PBOC) liquidity injections.

Oil Markets

• Brent crude oil rose by 0.6% w/w to $66.8/b.
• Also, prices remained volatile amid International Energy Agency (IEA) warnings of record oversupply in 2025–2026, successive US inventory builds, and moving trade flows from Russia toward West Asia.

Outlook:

Next week, global equity markets may take cues from clearer US trade policy direction and scheduled speeches by Fed officials, which could refine rate-cut expectations. The July retail sales report will be a key gauge of US consumer resilience, with a soft figure potentially reinforcing September cut bets. In Europe, focus will remain on geopolitical developments following the Trump–Putin summit.

African Markets:

Mozambique  

• Africa50, backed by the African Development Bank (AfDB), will invest in Mozambique’s infrastructure, including an 800 km power-transmission line. State utility Electricidade de Moçambique will install two 220-kilovolt lines and one 400-kilovolt line in the center and south.
• Africa50 will also fund a new data center, upgrade an existing one, and manage a $118million pan-African green fund.
• TotalEnergies plans to restart its $20billion LNG project in Cabo Delgado.

Kenya  

• The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) cut its policy rate to 9.5% from 9.75%, marking the 7th consecutive cut to spur economic growth.
• CBK’s policy rate cut aims to support economic activity and maintain exchange rate stability.
• Inflation rose to 4.1% year on year (y/y) in July from 3.8% y/y in June, but below the 5% midpoint target.
• Since August 2024, the bank has lowered rates by 3.50%.

South Africa

• South Africa’s unemployment rate rose to 33.2% q/q in Q2 2025 from 32.9% in Q1 2025.
• The number of unemployed increased by 140,000 to 8.4 million.
• Meanwhile, the expanded unemployment rate, which includes discouraged workers, fell to 42.9% from 43.1%.
• Formal jobs grew by 34,000, led by trade (+88,000) and private households (+28,000), while informal jobs fell by 19,000.

Outlook:

Next week, African markets will be shaped by a mix of local and global drivers. In Nigeria, we have positive expectations that Banking sector earnings may drive. In Kenya, subdued foreign interest and central bank signals will guide sentiment. South African equity may trade sideways, with investors tracking China’s July activity data for cues on commodity demand.

Domestic Economy:

Crude Oil Production Increased Amid Dwindling Oil Prices

• For the 2nd consecutive month, Nigeria Crude Oil production remained above OPEC production quota.
• Crude oil production increased from 1.33 million barrels per day (mbpd) in July 2024 to 1.51mbpd in July 2025,  based on OPEC data.
• Adding condensate, the average daily production is over 1.7mbpd. 

Dangote Refinery Cut Ex-Depot Price  

• The pump price of petrol is expected to drop below N900 per litre as Dangote refinery reduces the ex-depot price of the product from N850 to N820 per litre.
• Dangote’s price cut is expected to return pump prices of PMS to N865 in Lagos and N875 in Ogun and environs.

Equity Market

• The NGX-ASI fell by 0.77% week on week (w/w), closing at 145,756.52 points.
• MTNN (-3.26%), WAPCO (-5.15%) and ZENITHBANK (-3.01%) led large-cap losses.
• Market capitalisation dropped to ₦91.50tn due to profit taking.
• The Nigerian equity year-to-date returns stood at 40.52%.

Money Market Review

• System liquidity declined from surplus balance of ₦0.23trn surplus reported to ₦0.95trn deficit.
• Consequently, short-term rates went up, with Open Repo Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (OVR) climbing by 5.70% and 5.57% w/w to 32.30% and 32.60%, respectively.
• Open Market Operations (OMO) yields fell by 0.12% w/w to close at 24.63% for the 327-day paper.

Outlook:

Equity Market: The market is likely to retreat as profit-taking sets in. However, investor’s interest should remain focused on fundamentally strong financial services stocks, supported by resilient earnings and attractive valuations.

Fixed Income Market: Fixed Term Deposit (FTD) rates and OVR might hover at current levels with a possibility of inching higher, given the illiquidity in the financial system. The CBN will conduct an NTBs auction, with an offer size of N230.00bn. Meanwhile, in the fixed income space, rates may hover at current levels with a possibility of ticking upwards slightly due to potential illiquidity.