August 26, 2025/CSL Research
In H1 2025, MTN Nigeria recorded substantial growth, driven by strong double-digit gains in both Voice and Data Revenues. Voice Revenue rose 40.3% y/y to ₦887.13 billion, while Data Revenue surged 69.2% y/y to ₦1.23 trillion. As a result, Total Revenue increased by 54.5% y/y to ₦2.38 trillion, compared to ₦1.54 trillion in H1 2024.Looking ahead, we expect this growth momentum to continue through FY 2025. Data Revenue is projected to rise by 64.0% y/y, while Voice Revenue is forecast to grow by 43.0% y/y. Overall, we anticipate Total Revenue will expand by 50.7% y/y to ₦5.06 trillion, up from ₦3.36 trillion in 2024.
Operational efficiency improved notably in H1 2025, as Direct Network Operating Costs and Operating Expenses grew at a slower pace than Revenue. This supported a strong uplift in profitability, with EBITDA margin rising to 50.6% from 35.5% in H1 2024. The improvement was underpinned by cost-saving initiatives and a more stable currency environment. Furthermore, foreign exchange losses fell sharply—from ₦887.68 billion to just ₦5.23 billion—providing an additional boost to earnings. As a result, MTN Nigeria swung back to profitability, reporting a Net Profit of ₦414.86 billion in H1 2025, compared to a Net Loss of ₦519.06 billion in H1 2024.
Looking ahead, we forecast Profit Before Tax of ₦1.42 trillion for FY 2025, representing a sharp recovery from the ₦544.72 billion Loss Before Tax in 2024. This projection is supported by strong Revenue growth, sustained cost efficiencies, and a more stable foreign exchange environment. On the back of this recovery, we expect MTN Nigeria’s shareholders’ equity to return to positive territory by Q3 2025, reversing its current negative position.
We maintain a BUY recommendation on MTN Nigeria, with a price target of ₦555.33/share. This represents an upside potential of 27.7% from the last closing price of ₦435.00/s on 26 August 2025. Our valuation is based on a blended approach, using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Relative Valuation methods, weighted 60:40 respectively.
To read full report, click on the link below
MTNN H1 2025 Company Update .pdf
