August 27. 2025/CSL Research
Nigeria’s crude oil production reached its highest level in six months in July according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). Output averaged 1.507 million barrels per day (bpd) excluding condensates, slightly above June’s 1.505 million bpd and marking the second consecutive month above the country’s OPEC quota.
Including condensates, total liquid hydrocarbon production averaged 1.712 million bpd, with volumes ranging between 1.66 million and 1.84 million bpd during the month. Looking ahead, NUPRC has set an ambitious target to raise crude output to 2.5 million bpd by 2026, underpinned by efforts to unlock deepwater assets, revive dormant fields, and accelerate approvals for upstream projects.
Over the past five years, Nigeria’s crude output has averaged just 1.57 mbpd, constrained by structural challenges such as underinvestment in exploration and production, and persistent security risks including crude theft, pipeline vandalism, and militancy in the Niger Delta. Production trends have, however, improved over the past 18 months, averaging around 1.68 mbpd so far in 2025. Low production levels have contributed to significant revenue losses and a reduction in foreign exchange supply, given that crude sales remain the country’s primary source of FX. Past efforts to boost output have fallen short of meeting both OPEC quotas and the needs of local refineries. Recent initiatives, including the Audit of Upstream Measurement Equipment and Facilities (AUMEF), have however, helped improve output measurement and efficiency.
Nonetheless, we remain cautious about the near-term feasibility of the 2.5 mbpd target. Structural and security challenges persist, leading us to project an average of 1.69 mbpd in 2025 and around 1.77 mbpd in 2026—a modest improvement from current levels, yet still below the government’s goal. Achieving 2.5 mbpd will likely require sustained progress over several years, including greater participation by international oil companies in deepwater projects—where over 20 assets have been identified with potential to add about 810 kbpd—as well as renewed exploration by local operators to revive stranded and recently acquired onshore fields.
Click here to download full report: CSL Nigeria Daily – 27 August 2025 – Oil.pdf
