August 27, 2025/CSL Research

BUA Cement posted strong Revenue growth of 59.4% year-on-year (y/y), reaching ₦580.30 billion in H1 2025, driven primarily by price increases. Further price adjustments are expected in H2 2025 to sustain momentum and protect margins. We project the average cement price to rise 45% y/y to ₦155,295 while sales volumes are expected to decline slightly by 1.8% to 8.0 million metric tonnes due to weaker consumer purchasing power and elevated interest rates. Consequently, we forecast full-year 2025 Revenue of ₦1.24 trillion, representing a 41.6% increase from ₦876.47 billion in FY 2024.

BUA Cement’s Pre-tax profit surged 435.3% y/y to ₦214.80 billion in H1 2025, driven by strong Revenue growth, moderate cost increases, and the absence of foreign exchange losses. Looking ahead, the company is expected to sustain robust earnings momentum in FY 2025, with full-year EBITDA projected to rise sharply to ₦597.61 billion, lifting EBITDA margins to 48% from 21% in the previous year. Although finance costs remain elevated, the lack of FX losses and ongoing deleveraging efforts are expected to support strong profit growth. Overall, Pre-tax Profit is forecast to increase 371.8% year-on-year to ₦470.03 billion, reflecting a very positive outlook.

We have revised our target price for BUA Cement upward to ₦114.77/s (from ₦77.52/s), reflecting its strong FY 2025 earnings outlook. Despite this revision, we maintain our SELL recommendation, as the stock remains overvalued at current levels. Our new target price implies a 24.4% downside from the last closing price of ₦151.80/s. The valuation is based on a blended methodology, using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Relative Valuation, with a 60:40 weighting. Currently, the stock trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.67x versus the MEA peer average of 10.30x, underscoring its premium relative to regional peers.

To read full report, click on the link below​​

​BUA Cement H1 2025 Company Update .pdf​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​