September 2, 2025/Cordros Report
Ghana’s economy is showing promising signs of recovery following the turbulence of 2022 and 2023 — marked by global headwinds, high debt levels, and currency depreciation. The recovery was underpinned by global stability and reinforced by the Ghanaian government’s reform agenda, which was supported by the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) framework. Notable policy actions included fiscal consolidation, debt restructuring, and strengthening the monetary policy framework. In 2024, growth rebounded, and inflation began to ease from previously elevated levels. Externally, the country benefited from a higher trade surplus, supported by strong gold prices and improved remittance inflows, which bolstered FX reserve accretion. This, alongside increased FX liquidity and the BoG’s sustained interventions, has supported the cedi’s stabilisation. While lower interest payments from the restructuring drove a sharp contraction in the fiscal deficit in 2023, the deficit widened significantly in 2024, buoyed by significant fiscal arrears.
Outlook: Sustained Economic Momentum in Sight
Ghana’s economic outlook remains positive. On the fiscal front, the government is expected to sustain its fiscal consolidation drive under the IMF programme, with fiscal deficit expected to fall to 3.8% of GDP in 2025 (from 7.9% in 2024). Ghana has successfully restructured approximately 93.0% of its debt and is expected to finalize agreements with commercial creditors on the remaining 7.0% by year-end, effectively bringing the country out of default. Externally, elevated gold prices, along with the formalisation of small-scale mining, are expected to bolster FX reserves and reduce currency volatility. We forecast inflation to decline to 10.00% y/y by year-end (January: 23.5% y/y), which, alongside a firmer cedi and lower borrowing costs, should provide a tailwind for economic activity. Reflecting this, the MPC — having initiated an easing cycle in July — following a 100bps rate hike early in the year — and is expected to implement further rate cuts in subsequent meetings as inflation trends lower. Against this backdrop, GDP growth is projected to remain resilient, averaging 5.24% y/y in 2025, though base effects may temper the pace of expansion.
