September 2, 2025/CSL Report
According to the latest data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), active mobile subscriptions grew modestly by 2.67 million year-on-year (+1.60%) to 169.33 million in July 2025, up from 166.66 million in July 2024. However, on a month-on-month basis, the sector recorded a slight contraction, with total subscriptions falling by 2.40 million (-1.40%) from 171.73 million in June 2025.
The weak month-on-month performance was largely due to the temporary suspension of National Identification Number (NIN) verifications by the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC), as it transitioned to the new High Availability NIMC Verification Service (HA-NVS). This suspension effectively halted new SIM activations across all networks, stalling subscriber onboarding.
The impact was compounded by an NCC directive restricting third-party agents to registering only one SIM per customer, further slowing additions. While these disruptions weighed on July’s performance, the industry appears to be nearing recovery, with a rebound expected soon.
Operator performance in July 2025 was mixed. MTN Nigeria, the largest operator, recorded a slight decline, losing 106,345 subscribers to close at 89.14 million (June: 89.24 million). Airtel experienced the sharpest drop, shedding 2.44 million subscribers to end at 56.52 million (June: 58.97 million). Globacom also reported a decline of 143,701 subscribers, closing at 20.74 million (June: 20.89 million). In contrast, 9mobile posted growth, adding 290,601 subscribers to reach 2.73 million (June: 2.44 million).
Despite the subdued July numbers, we believe the decline is transitory, driven primarily by temporary regulatory and operational disruptions. As NIN verifications resume and operators adjust to updated SIM registration protocols, we anticipate a rebound in mobile subscriptions in the coming months—supported by the reactivation of deactivated lines and the resumption of new SIM activations.
Structurally, the sector remains well-positioned for long-term growth, underpinned by Nigeria’s large, youthful, and increasingly digital population. With significant headroom for telecom penetration, rising smartphone adoption, accelerating 4G and 5G rollout, and deepening broadband usage, we maintain a positive outlook for the telecommunications sector.
Click here to download full report: CSL Nigeria Daily – 02 September 2025 – Telecoms .pdf
