September 8, 2025/CSL Research
The Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) has reaffirmed its decision to begin an industrial strike today in protest against Dangote Refinery’s fuel distribution strategy. Recall that in June, the refinery back announced plans to import 4,000 compressed natural gas-powered trucks to deliver fuel directly to retail outlets.
According to NUPENG, the refinery intends to employ newly recruited drivers who will be barred from joining any workers’ union, a move the union describes as a direct threat to labour rights, collective bargaining, and the livelihoods of existing truck drivers. The union has also called on the Federal Government and other stakeholders to urgently intervene, warning that failure to address the issue could destabilise the downstream petroleum sector. Meanwhile, the Direct Trucking Company Drivers Association has dissociated itself from the planned strike, instead urging dialogue to resolve the dispute.
The strike is expected to cause immediate disruptions to fuel distribution, with filling stations across major cities likely to face shortages and long queues in the coming days. This could drive pump prices higher, increase transport costs, and further complicate government efforts to curb inflation. Looking ahead, several outcomes are possible. In a base-case scenario, the strike lasts only a few days, as rising public frustration over fuel scarcity and higher prices forces both parties to seek compromise, especially since Dangote’s new trucks are not expected to be deployed for at least another week at the earliest. In the best-case scenario, the government swiftly brokers an agreement between NUPENG and Dangote Refinery, leading to minimal disruption in supply and stable pump prices.
However, in the worst-case scenario, the strike lingers for weeks without resolution, and other unions such as the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) join in solidarity. Such escalation could severely disrupt the downstream sector and intensify economic pressures. For now, while the NLC has openly criticised Dangote’s distribution plan, it has stopped short of mobilising its members for the strike.
The standoff between NUPENG and Dangote Refinery underscores the long-standing structural challenges in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector. Although the refinery’s launch was expected to end the country’s reliance on imported petroleum products and boost domestic supply, the industry remains mired in competing interests. Fuel marketers, for example, continue to favour imports over local refining, citing concerns about potential monopoly by Dangote Refinery, competitive pricing, and overall market dynamics.
According to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, of the 1.48 billion litres of petrol supplied in June, only 455.2 million litres originated from Dangote Refinery, with the majority still coming from imports. Despite these hurdles, Dangote Refinery stands as a landmark infrastructure project with the capacity to transform Nigeria into a net exporter of refined petroleum. However, achieving full operational reliability and delivering the broader shift in Nigeria’s oil economy will depend on resolving these persistent challenges.
Click here to download full report: CSL Nigeria Daily – 8 September 2025 – Fuel.pdf
