September 12, 2025/United Capital Report

• Global Markets:United States
• US Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.1% month-on-month in August.
• Core PPI (excluding food and energy) also dropped by 0.1%.
• Over the past year, PPI rose 2.6%, with core PPI up about 2.8%.
• The Producer Price Index (PPI) tracks changes in prices producers receive for goods and services.
• S&P 500, DIJ, and NASDAQ all appreciated closing in the green.

      Europe

• The European Central Bank (ECB) held rates steady at September 2025 meeting.
• Similarly, the key deposit rate was held constant at 2.0%.
• The ECB projects that inflation will average about 2.1% in 2025, and would drop to 1.7% in 2026.
• Core inflation is expected to gradually decelerate.
• CAC 40 and STOXX600 appreciated, however the FTSE 100 closed in the red territory.

      Asia

• China’s export growth slowed to 4.4% year-on-year in August, down from 7.2% in July.
• This growth marks the worse monthly performance in six months.
• Japan’s economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.2% in Q2 (April-June).
• This growth was revised upwards from earlier estimate of 1.0%.  
• Asian equities rallied on optimism over a potential Fed rate cut, with Japan and South Korea leading the gains.

      Oil Markets

• Brent crude oil fell by 0.90% week-on-week to settle at $66.37/b. 
• Oil prices extended losses, settling around 1% lower.
• This is due to concerns of low demand in US.

      Outlook
        Global economic momentum could be subdued as Central Banks signal cautious rate adjustments amid slowing growth, persistent inflation risks, and geopolitical tensions. The US may              see a rate cut, China faces weakening domestic demand, while Japan and the UK navigate mixed inflation signals and policy shifts.

        African Markets:

        Ghana

• Ghana’s economy grew 6.3% year-on-year (y/y) in Q2.
• This is higher than the revised 5.7% growth of 2024.
• Non-oil GDP rose by 7.8% y/y, but  oil sector contracted.

         Kenya

• Kenya headline inflation rose to 4.5% y/y in August 2025. This is from 4.1% in July.
• Non-core inflation rose 9.2%, with food prices leading.

         South Africa

• South Africa’s economy rose by 0.8% in Q2 2025.
• This is higher than 0.5% predictions by economists.
• This marks its fastest growth in two years.
• Outlook: 

  African markets are likely to trade modestly next week, with investors closely watching currency stability and inflation trends. In South Africa, equities could gain support from resource sector earnings and dividend flows, while East Africa, particularly Kenya and Ethiopia could sustain interest driven by tourism, agriculture, and infrastructure growth. Ghana and Egypt may remain in focus as policymakers navigate debt management and inflation challenges. Overall, sentiment will hinge on clear policy direction to anchor stability and maintain growth momentum across the continent.

   

  Domestic Economy:

   

  PMI Settled at 51.7 in August 2025

• PMI settled at 51.7 in August from 52.7 in July.
• This marks the 8th consecutive month of expansion in 2025.
• This points to a higher Gross Domestic Product growth in Q2-2025.

        The Federal Government (FG) Removes 5% Telecom Tax

• FG has removed the 5% excise duty imposed on telecommunications services.
• The could ease inflationary pressure while supporting digital adoption.

         Equity Market

• NGX-ASI rose by 1.21% week on week (w/w), closing at 140,657.92 points as of Thursday, September 11 2025.
• WAPCO (+13.27%), DANGCEM (+1.50%) and ZENITHBA (+3.24%) led large cap gains.
• Market capitalisation climbed to ₦87.42tn, on renewed buying interest.
• The Nigerian equity year-to-date return stood at 36.66% as of Thursday, September 11 2025.

         Money Market

• System liquidity rose from a surplus balance of ₦1.64tn to a surplus balance of ₦1.92tn as of September 11 2025.
• Open Repo Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (OVR) settled at 26.50% and 26.96%.
• Open Market Operations (OMO) yields fell by 6.61% w/w to close at 23.86% for the 299-day paper.

• Outlook:

  Equity Market

  The Nigerian equity market could see a mild recovery next week. This is hinged on potential release of H1 2025 financials of key banks and expectation of a possible rate cut by policymakers.

   Fixed Income Market

  Fixed income market could remain stable amid high system liquidity and relatively attractive yields.