September 16, 2025/CSL Research
- Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that headline inflation eased for the fifth consecutive month in August, declining to 20.1% year-on-year (y/y) from 21.9% y/y in July.
- The slowdown in price growth was sharper than both our projection of 21.3% and Bloomberg consensus of 21.6%, though broadly aligned with expectations of a continued disinflationary trend.
- The primary driver of the decline was food prices, as food inflation moderated to 21.9% y/y in August from 22.7% y/y in the prior month. Core inflation also softened, easing to 20.3% y/y from 21.3% in July.
- We highlight that the moderation in price pressures was evident in the monthly figures: headline inflation dropped by 125 basis points (bps) to 0.7% m/m, while food inflation fell by 147bps to 1.7% m/m. However, core inflation edged up slightly by 46bps to 1.4% m/m in August.
- Within the consumer price index (CPI) basket, food and non-alcoholic beverages, restaurants and accommodation services, transport, and utilities remained the dominant contributors, jointly accounting for 72.1% of the overall increase in August (July: 72.0%).
Kindly click on the link below to download the full report.
CSL Macro Report – August 2025 Inflation.pdf
