September 16, 2025/CSL Research
Nigeria posted a trade surplus of ₦7.46 trillion in the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest Foreign Trade Report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The country’s total merchandise trade stood at ₦38.04 trillion in Q2 2025, marking a 20.05% increase from ₦31.68 trillion in the same period of 2024, and a 5.59% rise compared to ₦36.02 trillion in Q1 2025. Exports accounted for 59.81% of total trade, amounting to ₦22.75 trillion. This represents a 28.43% growth from ₦17.71 trillion recorded in Q2 2024 and a 10.45% increase over the ₦20.60 trillion recorded in the previous quarter. Crude oil remained the country’s largest export, valued at ₦11.97 trillion and representing 52.60% of total exports. Non-crude oil exports contributed ₦10.78 trillion, or 47.40% of total exports.
On the other hand, imports accounted for 40.19% of Nigeria’s total trade in the second quarter of 2025, valued at ₦15.29 trillion. This reflects a 9.43% increase from ₦13.97 trillion in Q2 2024, but a decline of 0.90% compared to ₦15.43 trillion recorded in Q1 2025. The quarter-on-quarter dip in imports was largely driven by lower demand for mineral fuels, which make up nearly 29% of the country’s import bill. Mineral fuel imports fell by 9.52% to ₦4.49 trillion in Q2 2025, down from ₦4.97 trillion in Q1 2025. On a year-on-year basis, they dropped by 25.22% from ₦6.02 trillion in Q2 2024. This decline is mainly attributed to increased domestic refining capacity, most notably from the Dangote Refinery, which has reduced Nigeria’s
reliance on imported petroleum products.
Analysis of Nigeria’s trade flows in the second quarter of 2025 shows that China remained the country’s largest source of imports, with goods worth ₦4.96 trillion, representing 32.45% of total imports. The United States followed with ₦2.16 trillion (14.12%), while India contributed ₦901.48 billion (5.90%). Other major import partners were the Netherlands at ₦606.82 billion (3.97%) and the United Arab Emirates with ₦536.09 billion (3.51%). On the export side, Spain was Nigeria’s top destination, receiving goods valued at ₦2.47 trillion, or 10.85% of total exports. This was followed by India with ₦1.98 trillion (8.71%), France at ₦1.62 trillion (7.13%), the Netherlands with ₦1.54 trillion (6.75%), and Canada at ₦1.43 trillion (6.27%). Together, these five countries accounted for 39.72% of Nigeria’s total exports in Q2 2025.
We forecast that Nigeria’s current account surplus will moderate to US$9.89 billion in FY 2025, down from US$17.22 billion in 2024. Despite the rise in crude oil exports, weaker global oil prices expected over the remainder of the year, along with sustained deficits in services and income accounts, are likely to limit overall external gains. Additionally, while higher domestic refining capacity is helping to reduce petroleum imports and ease import growth, this is unlikely to fully offset the impact of lower export earnings, keeping the current account surplus below 2024 levels.
Click here to download full report: CSL Nigeria Daily – 16 September 2025 – Foreign Trade.pdf
