October 16, 2025/Coronation Report
Summary
In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF upgraded Nigeria’s GDP growth rate, projecting real GDP growth of 3.9% in 2025 (up 0.5 percentage points from the July update) and 4.2% in 2026. The Fund also revised 2024’s growth upward to 4.1%, reflecting the rebased national accounts.
Inflation is expected to average 23.0% in 2025 and moderate to 22.0% in 2026, with end-period inflation of 21% in 2025 and 18% in 2026. On the external sector, the current account surplus is forecast to narrow from 6.8% of GDP (2024) to 5.7% (2025) and 3.6% (2026). These projections rest on stronger oil output, a more supportive fiscal stance, improved investor confidence, and the effects of GDP rebasing that raised nominal GDP by 40%.
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